SPX up 500 points

Today the SPX reached 1167 - a gain of 500 points in just one year!

The count remains unclear, it seems though that the bullish short term count I posted over the weekend with a ideal target of 1225ish is underway.

Sensex

A possible count for the Sensex. An alternative count for the rally from the lows is that Primary [1] has already finished and we're at the beginning of P[2] down (this is the more likely count should the US markets be in Primary [C] down).

Elliott Wave Count Week 10 2010

NEW HIGH!

The headline of this week!

On Friday the SPX made a new high at 1153,41 which invalidated the bearish count I posted last weekend. However, I'm still not convinced that we are in a new bull market.

Originally I thought that this turning date could be a low (low of Intermediate (1)) but now it may turn out to be a high. In the past these dates were almost always either an important high or low so I think it's worth to look at it.

bullish count: This count looks great... as long as you don't look at the subwaves... or does anybody see a way to subdivide wave (3) into an impulse? Suggestions are welcome ; )

Wave (1) = Wave (3). I think that both were extended, thus wave (5) should be a bit shorter, possibly 0,62 times wave (3). In that area is also the 62 % retracement level, so I expect a top between 1220-30.

bearish count: I tried to find a new bearish count because I don't really like the bullish one... It is much easier to count the waves from 666 corrective than motive.

The count looks now as follows:

Since wave C should be a motive wave the short term count can be the same as in the bullish count or it can look as in the count below which also includes the turning date (which would be a high).

This week I recieved many bearish counts, in most of them we are somewhere in an ending diagonal. It's possible but I think it's too early to tell whether an ED is unfolding or not.

That's one example:

As you can see the market will either move up or down next week - yes I needed six charts to came to this conclusion : ))

I'll keep you updated during the week and I hope that the situation will be much clearer next weekend ; )

Have a nice week.

Elliott Wave Count Week 9 2010

Another week for the bulls. They failed to make a new high though but it's possible that the usual Monday ramp up will create a new high.

This weekend, I concentrated on the bullish count and I have some interesting charts for you ; )

Bearish count: The bearish count is in trouble! If the market rallies above 1150 this count will be invalid! Still possible though that wave 3 will start soon.

Bullish count: The action from 1045 now looks like a motive wave. We're currently in the fifth wave that should end when it hits the upper trendline.

I still don't like this count (because of wave (3)) but the target for wave (5) may be the 62 % retracement level and the upper trendline.

How about that? ; )

New high in 2011, new low in 2012, crazy but we got the same structure 40 years ago.

Elliott Wave Count 4 March 2010

Here you see a possible bearish count for this rally since early February. It's also possible that this is a finished motive upwave though. In that case we should decline to 1100ish and then rally to new highs.

Elliott Wave Count February 2010

Review

Early February we got indeed a retest of the MA 76 from below as written in my January post. After that retest I expected wave 3 to start somewhen in mid February. Although we got a selloff down to 1045 this was not Minor wave 3. It was only the end of Minor wave 1. A rally followed (Minor wave 2) which didn't stop until it challenged the MA 76 for a second time in late February. The high so far for wave 2 is at 1112, right at the 62 % retracement level of wave 1.

Preview

Bearish count: Wave 2 may have topped out at 1112 or may have not. The action from the top at 1112 looks corrective so far, thus we may see a new high next week.

Bullish count (alt): In the chart below I added an alternative bullish count. In this count we finished wave (4) of [1] or [A] up and are already in wave (5). I don't like this alternative though, wave (3) just doesn't look like a third wave. But should the market make new highs this will be a count we have to consider and we may be on the way up to the 62 % retracement level of the 2007-09 bear market.

In the past years the market always made an important top or low in March. While my preffered Elliott Wave count suggests a top in March (wave 2) there are many cycles which bottom early March. So, a mixed picture at the moment but I hope it will become clearer after the first trading days in March.

ASX - Elliott Wave Count 24 February 2010

I recieved a nice ASX count tonight. Also the Australian index may need one more upwave to complete wave 2.