Tuesday, September 2, 2014

S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 2 September 2014

As mentioned yesterday, it looks like we are at the end of a Primary wave (black [3] or [C]). If that's the case, a big correction should follow (like in 2011) or even a new bear market could start.

In the last three years, there were nine pullbacks. Four of them were around 84 points, three of them around 130 (the largest was 156 points). Moreover, no pullback declined below the low of the previous pullback, i. e. we got a series of higher lows (and higher highs).

Hence, unless we get a decline that exceeds 130ish points and dips below 1905 (the low of the previous pullback), the uptrend is intact and thus, pullbacks should be bought.

Author: Patrick Eugster

Monday, September 1, 2014

S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 1 September 2014

Hi all,

It's been in a long time since my last update! I posted my last Elliott wave count ten weeks ago. In the meantime, the SPX climbed 50 points and reached the 2000 level. Despite this, my count is still valid and thus I haven't changed anything except for adding the proper subwaves:

It looks like the rally which started three years ago is soon coming to an end as we seem to be in a fifth of a fifth of a Primary wave. The waves actually line up pretty well with the end of QE in October which will likely have a negative impact on the market.

Medium- and short-term counts follow tomorrow morning.

Author: Patrick Eugster

Tuesday, June 24, 2014

S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 24 June 2014

The last few days went as expected. We got a short-term correction last week followed by a rally to new highs:

It looks like wave 3 is already completed. If so, we should see a sideways correction over the next few weeks.

Author: Patrick Eugster

Tuesday, June 17, 2014

EUR/USD ~ 17 June 2014

The EUR/USD broke the support at 1.37ish a bit more than three weeks ago and has lost about two cents since then:

As long as we are below 1.37, the trend is down. I think 1.34ish is a likely target for this decline.

Author: Patrick Eugster

Thursday, June 12, 2014

S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 12 June 2014

The expected correction is now underway:

As long as 1900ish holds, this correction should be just short-term though. It should be followed by rally to new highs.

Author: Patrick Eugster