Wednesday, August 31, 2011

S&P 500 ~ EOD Update ~ 31 August 2011

The SPX hit my preferred target for wave [iv] today:

1230 is the 50 % retracement and wave (a) equals wave (c) so it looks like wave [iv] is completed (or almost).

Resistance levels are at 1230ish and 1260ish, support is at ~1205-10 (ES at 1200 and 1180).

If we decline below ES 1180 wave [iv] is most likely over. A sell-off below the rising support line (currently around 1150) should lead to new lows.

S&P 500 ~ Pre-Market Warm-Up ~ 31 August 2011

Resistance levels are at ES 1220ish, 1230ish and 1260ish. Supports are at the 1200 level and the rising support line (orange) around 1145. If we decline below this area new lows are very likely.

Monday, August 29, 2011

S&P 500 ~ EOD Update ~ 29 August 2011

The SPX broke the triangle to the upside and is back above 1200:

If we can break 1208ish the next targets for the SPX are the low 1230's and 1260ish. Support is around 1277-80.

Friday, August 26, 2011

S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update 1 ~ 26 August 2011

It looks like a triangle is unfolding. Let's see which side it breaks.

S&P 500 ~ Pre-Market Warm-Up ~ 26 August 2011

We should get some action today as the GDP numbers are released pre-market and Ben speaks at 10 am. ; )

Except for the Buffet spike the resistance around ES 1177-80 held yesterday:

Both counts are very similar (wave [v] underway or wave [iv] triangle): We should see new lows later this month/September as long as we don't move above yesterday's high. There's actually a third option (wave 1/A completed at 1122) so I suggest to focus on the support and resistance levels rather than the EW counts and probably wait till after 10 am.

Wednesday, August 24, 2011

S&P 500 ~ EOD Update ~ 24 August 2011

The support and resistance levels worked very well today.

During Globex the ES hit the support level around 1145ish and rallied from there to the resistance area around 1177-80:

Tuesday, August 23, 2011

S&P 500 ~ EOD Update ~ 23 August 2011

I don't have much time until Thursday evening so unfortunately there won't be many updates till then.

The SPX declined below 1130 and I thought we'd see a decline to at least 1100ish. 1122 held multiple times though and today the market rallied from this level and closed around 3.5 % higher!

For once I'm posting an ES rather than an SPX chart because the ES displays the support and resistance levels much nicer:

Support is around 1145ish and 1120ish. Resistance levels are at 1180ish and 1200ish.

Monday, August 22, 2011

Gold ~ Update ~ 22 August 2011

Gold has rallied another 100 $ since my last upate and is now only about 6 % below 2000 $!

I think I've been reading that gold is in a bubble since it has exceeded 1000 $. Well, now we're almost at 2000 $ and I still don't see a reason to exit my long position or even enter a short.

Gold still looks strong and the uptrend remains intact as long as the uptrend line (currently around 1500) holds.

Friday, August 19, 2011

S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update 1 ~ 19 August 2011

Possible short-term count:

The rally to 1155 either completed wave a of (ii) or wave (ii). As long as 1130ish holds I prefer the "wave a" count thus I expect another rally towards 1160ish or higher later today/Monday.

Silver ~ Update ~ 19 August 2011

While gold is going parabolic silver hasn't actually made much progress in the past few weeks. The important support level at 38-39 held though so silver might follow gold very soon:

Silver is currently trading around 42 $ so right below the resistance at 42-42.5. A break of this level should lead to a rally to 45-46.

Thursday, August 18, 2011

S&P 500 ~ EOD Update ~ 18 August 2011

As already mentioned intraday the break of 1170 indicated that wave [v] was underway. The SPX plunged to 1131 - down 77 handles since yesterday morning!

It looks like we've completed five waves down from 1208 to 1131. It's too short in price and time to be wave [v] though so it's most likely only wave (i) of [v]:

S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update 1 ~ 18 August 2011

Well... markets were calming down... : )

The SPX already opened below both support levels (1170/80) indicating that wave [v] was underway:

Wave [i] was 110 points thus if wave [v] equals [i] the target for [v] is around 1100 (possible double bottom). It'd be a bit short in time though so we might see a fifth wave extension down to much lower levels.
Well, let's see how the waves unfold so that we hopefully can determine which count is underway.

S&P 500 ~ Pre-Market Warm-Up ~ 18 August 2011

After some epic days early August markets are calming down this week.

As long as 1170/80 holds wave [iv] is still underway I might eventually reach 1230ish. If the SPX declines below 1170 wave [v] is most likely underway and should hit new lows later this month.

Wednesday, August 17, 2011

EUR/CHF ~ Update ~ 17 August 2011

The EUR/CHF rallied even more than the USD/CHF during the last couple of days and is back at the 1.14-15ish resistance:

Resistance levels are at 1.14-15ish, 1.18 and 1.24. Support is at 1.11ish.

USD/CHF ~ Update ~ 17 August 2011

About one week ago the USD/CHF hit an all-time low of 0.706.

Since then we've rallied back up to the resistance around 0.8 and have been consolidating just below it for the last couple of days:

Resistance levels are at 0.80ish and 0.83ish. Support is at 0.78ish.

Tuesday, August 16, 2011

S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update 1 ~ 16 August 2011

The SPX gapped down and hit the 1188 support area early in the day. From there we rallied back to yesterday's high:

If 1170 breaks wave [iv] most likely ended at 1204. A break of yesterday/today's high on the other hand should lead to a rally to 1230ish.

S&P 500 ~ Pre-Market Warm-Up ~ 16 August 2011

The SPX rallied to the resistance at 1200ish, my minimum target for this fourth wave. If we can break yesterday's high we might even see 1230:

Monday, August 15, 2011

S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update 1 ~ 15 August 2011

The SPX consolidated above 1170 on Friday and seems now ready to move higher. It already hit 1195 this morning - just a few handles below my target:

If we break 1200ish this fourth wave could even reach the 50 % retracement at 1230.

Thursday, August 11, 2011

S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update 1 ~ 11 August 2011

There we go! Gap close!

Let's see where this (c) wave ends. If we can break 1170ish we should rally to 1200.

Gold ~ Update ~ 11 August 2011

I think I've been posting this trendline for almost a year now and so far it's still holding thus gold remains in an uptrend.

Most recently we even broke above the upper trendline. Let's see if we get back in the channel or if this is the start of a parabolic move.

S&P 500 ~ Update ~ 11 August 2011

We got a nice rally after the break of 1145ish - couldn't quite close the open gap though:

As long as 1100ish holds we could still get a bounce to 1200 or even 1230 to complete wave [iv].

Wednesday, August 10, 2011

S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update 1 ~ 10 August 2011

The SPX has been moving between 1125 and 1145 for the past few hours. If we get above 1145 I think we'll see a gap close. If we break below 1125 we could see yesterday's low again. Let's see which way it breaks.

Tuesday, August 9, 2011

S&P 500 ~ EOD Update ~ 9 August 2011

Wow! Epic! A range of almost 100 handles!

The SPX hit the 38 % retracement today at 1100:

From this level the market rallied into the close. 70 handles within 75 minutes!

It looks like we completed wave [iii] today. I think we'll get a bounce at least to 1200 (open gap and 38 % retracement). My preferred target is at 1230 though which is the 50 % retracement level.

Short-term resistance is at 1170 and then 1200. Support is at 1150ish.

S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update 1 ~ 9 August 2011

Wow! That was some action after the FED announcement:

45 handles down and then 45 up and all that within an hour!

I'll have more charts after the close.

USD/CHF ~ Update ~ 9 August 2011

Not only the EUR/CHF is crashing but also the USD/CHF:

About two weeks ago the USD/CHF declined below 0.80 for the first time. Today we're already near 0.70 - just insane!

Resistance levels are at 0.76ish, 0.80ish and 0.83ish.

EUR/CHF ~ Update ~ 9 August 2011

One week ago, when I posted my last update, the EUR/CHF was trading around 1.10.

Today the EUR/CHF plunged below 1.05!

At this speed we'll be below 1.00 by the end of next week... We'll see if we really get this low or if the SNB steps in earlier and tries to weaken the CHF.

Resistance levels are around 1.07-08, 1.14ish and 1.18ish.

S&P 500 ~ Pre-Market Warm-Up ~ 9 August 2011

It looks like we'll get another epic day today.

Globex has already been insane: The ES closed at 1112 yesterday then sold off to 1077, rallied to 1147, sold off to 1096 and is now trading at 1130:

Monday, August 8, 2011

S&P 500 ~ EOD Update ~ 8 August 2011

Another amazing day! Down 80 handles today!

Only two weeks ago the SPX was trading around 1350 and today it closed at 1120!

So far the fractal works perfectly and we're "only" about 6 % away from my target (1055). In this area wave [iii] is 2.61*wave [i] and at 1040 is some strong support so I think the 1040 to 1065 area could be a target for this third wave.

Tomorrow the boys at the FED want to say some stuff so I think we'll see another very interesting day.

S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update 1 ~ 8 August 2011

And we're down again - currently 4 % near the 62 % retracement level:

Supports are around 1150 and 1130.

I had a look at the fractal again and calculated the targets if we get a perfect copy of the 2010 fractal. The "flash crash target" is at 1055 and the target for the whole correction is 943.

Let's see how low we go today. ; )

Sunday, August 7, 2011

S&P 500 ~ Weekend Update ~ 7 August 2011

As mentioned on Friday the April/May 2010 top is very similar to the current top:

I zoomed out a bit and it's amazing that not only the tops but also the preceding (and subsequent (so far)) moves are very similar:

Last year the decline in May/June erased all the gains made in March/April. If this happens again this year SPX ~1000 might be a target.

I think we'll get another crazy week (especially tomorrow after the downgrade). Let's see where we open tonight.

Friday, August 5, 2011

S&P 500 ~ EOD Update ~ 6 August 2011

up 20, down 35, up 20, down 40, up 50, down 25, up 12

I'll post some charts tomorrow or on Sunday.

Have a nice weekend! ; )

USD/JPY ~ Update ~ 5 August 2011

The USD/JPY rallied from the 76.5ish support area up to the 80ish resistance level:

S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update 3 ~ 5 August 2011

S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update 2 ~ 5 August 2011

The overnight lows are holding so far and we got a pretty nice bounce from there:

We're already approaching the 1183ish level a second time though. Let's see if it holds again.

S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update 1 ~ 5 August 2011

Wow! Gap close and already way below yesterday's low. The overnight low for the ES was 1183.5 (~ SPX 1187). Let's see if it holds... If not... another crash today?

S&P 500 ~ Pre-Market Warm-Up ~ 5 August 2011

After yesterday's big decline it's very difficult to say whether we'll see a bounce today. I agree that everything is oversold but in 2008 everything was oversold too and the market kept going down...

The SPX will open with a big gap up and we have to watch whether we'll close the gap or go higher.

If we close the gap we might see panic again and plunge to 1180. If the market starts to rally though we might see some short covering which might lead to 1235 or even towards 1260ish. It's pretty much fifty-fifty at the moment, so let's first see what the market has in mind.


Thursday, August 4, 2011

S&P 500 ~ EOD Update ~ 4 August 2011

Wow! What a day!

S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update 1 ~ 4 August 2011

Another crazy day!!

We got a small bounce (~6 handles) at yesterday's low (wished it would've been more... : )) and then sold off down to the weekly MA 76:

From there we got a bounce and are now near yesterday's low again which I think will be some sort of a resistance. If we break it the next target is a gap close at 1260 (not saying all this will happen today... wouldn't be surprised though lol)

S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 4 August 2011

I actually wanted to post the following update earlier but the ES is going nuts pre-market so I had to concentrate on that.. : )

A reader asked me yesterday whether I could post my EW counts more often. Sure!

I haven't been posting counts for many months because it didn't really help me in trading and the support/resistance lines I've been posting have been working just so much better. But there you go:

Posted on 3rd of Jan 2011

Posted on 3rd of Jan 2011

Long-term not much has changed. As long as we don't get a convincing break below the MA 76 I continue to expect higher prices. Below is an updated count of the bull market since March 09:

The biggest problem is the mess we've got since the beginning of this year. It looks a bit too long to be a second wave (it's rather a fourth, b or x wave) thus I added an alternative count in purple (almost the same short- and medium-term though, only long-term it's slightly different).

Short-term levels are shown in the chart below:

Supports are at yesterday's low and then at 1215-25. Resistances are at 1260ish and 1275ish.