Thursday, February 28, 2013

Dow Jones ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 28 February 2013

An even more zoomed-in version of yesterday's count:

If the Dow Jones bottoms out around 13900-14000ish, we should see a substantial rally into mid-late March (wave [iii]). Let's see how the next days unfold.

Wednesday, February 27, 2013

EUR/USD ~ 27 February 2013

The EUR/USD declined below 1.315ish and is now retesting it from below:

Unless we get above 1.33ish, the next target should be 1.27ish.

Dow Jones ~ Elliott Wave Count 2 ~ 27 February 2013

Meanwhile the Dow Jones is already at a new bull market high so there is no point in comparing the two counts anymore.

Thus the count presented a few hours ago seems to be the correct one (also for the SPX). Here is a more detailed count of the last few months:

It looks like the rally could go on for a few more weeks.

Zoomed out count here:

SPX ~ Intraday 2 ~ 27 February 2013

Target hit!

Dow Jones ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 27 February 2013

I mentioned in some of my earlier posts a possible slightly different wave count than the one I currently have for the SPX.

Instead of the ending diagonal we could count it as a triple zigzag as shown below:

If so, we'll hit new bull market and most likely all-time highs, at least for the Dow Jones, soon.

I'll have some zoomed-in counts and more explanation a bit later.

SPX ~ Intraday ~ 27 February 2013

For the second time this week 1497 was breached and once again we saw a huge move:

The next objective should be 1514-15ish.

AUD/USD ~ 27 February 2013

The AUD/USD has finally hit my target:

As you can see, we've been trading between 1.015 and 1.06 for quite some time. If 1.015 holds again, we'll most likely get a rally back to 1.06ish. Should 1.015 convincingly break though, a decline to 0.96ish should follow.

Tuesday, February 26, 2013

SPX ~ Intraday ~ 26 February 2013

We're back at 1497:

If we get a reversal around this level, we should resume the downtrend and head for 1470ish.

USD/JPY ~ 26 February 2013

USD/CHF ~ 26 February 2013

The USD/CHF is still trading just below the upper trendline:

If the trendline holds, we should decline back to the lower trendline.

SPX ~ Pre-Market ~ 26 February 2013

1497ish seems to be strong resistance now. If we stay below it, the short-term trend shoud remain bearish and we should be heading for 1470ish.

Crude Oil ~ 26 February 2013

Crude Oil is still within the triangle:

It looks like we're headed for the lower trend line again.

Monday, February 25, 2013

SPX ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 25 February 2013

1497 was breached in the last trading hour today. It looks like we could decline to 1470ish now.

Below is an updated chart of the bearish count:

As you can see we could be in a third wave to around 1470ish.

(link to previous short-term count)

SPX ~ Intraday ~ 25 February 2013

The SPX opened at the resistance at 1525ish and then sold off:

It looks like we'll hit the support at 1497 very soon. If this level breaks, we could go much lower.

EUR/USD ~ 25 February 2013

The EUR/USD broke the channel and declined to the strong support at 1.315ish:

If 1.315 is breached, the medium-term trend would turn bearish and the next target would be 1.27ish.

Friday, February 22, 2013

SPX ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 22 February 2013

As mentioned yesterday, the rally is probably not over yet. I thought, I'd still show you a potential count if 1530 was the top after all:

SPX ~ Intraday ~ 22 February 2013

I'll post a possible short-term count a bit later.

Thursday, February 21, 2013

USD/CAD ~ 21 February 2013

USD/CHF ~ 21 February 2013

SPX ~ Intraday ~ 21 February 2013

Despite the 30-handle decline from the high the rally which started in November 2012 might not be over yet. I think the chart is self-explanatory:

Silver ~ 21 February 2013

Silver is at the support just above 28$. I think we'll see a bounce here. A possible target is 30$:

Gold ~ 21 February 2013

Gold has already hit my target at 1550ish:

The support at 1550ish should be a very strong one, thus I'm back to neutral after being bearish since the break of 1640.

Wednesday, February 20, 2013

AUD/USD ~ 20 February 2013

Not much has changed since my last update. The AUD/USD hit the resistance at 1.037ish twice but never breached it. Thus the target is still 1.017ish.

EUR/USD ~ 20 February 2013

The EUR/USD is at the lower end of the channel:

If the support holds, we should rally back to the upper trendline. If it doesn't, a decline to the strong support at 1.314ish should follow.

Friday, February 15, 2013

Gold ~ 15 February 2013

Gold declined below the support area:

As long as gold stays below 1640, it should head for 1540-60.

Wednesday, February 13, 2013

Tuesday, February 12, 2013

SPX ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 12 February 2013

I think wave (v) to complete wave [c] is now underway:

Link to last count

SPX ~ Intraday ~ 12 February 2013

The SPX is still at the orange trendline:

As mentioned in one of my earlier updates, the current situation looks very similar to last year. Last year the rally lasted until late March. So, eventually we might break the trendline and rally towards new all-time highs in March.

Thursday, February 7, 2013

AUD/USD ~ 7 February 2013

I'm on skiing holidays for the next four days. Daily updates will resume on Monday.

Wednesday, February 6, 2013

USD/JPY ~ 6 February 2013

It looks like we're heading for 100-102ish:

As long as we stay above 89ish, the medium-term trend is up.

Silver ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 6 February 2013

I still like my long-term count I posted last September: Cycle wave V is most likely underway.

Short-term it looks like we're at the beginning of wave (3).

Monday, February 4, 2013

SPX ~ EOD ~ 4 February 2013

We got a pullback today after the SPX hit the trendline on Friday:

As you can see on the chart, October 2012-today looks very similar to October 2011-February 2012. One year ago the rally lasted until late March. If we get the same this year, we'll most likely hit new all-time highs. Let's see if it happens.