Sunday, November 29, 2009

Elliott Wave Update Week 48 2009 ~ The magic number stays at 1029

SPX: This week was even more exciting than last week! This week the SPX changed by 0.11 points, from 1091.38 to 1091.49. I'm glad I can't follow the market at the moment lol.

I initially thought that wave (b) could reach the 50% retracement level around 1070 but now it looks like it might have ended at 1084 near the 38% retracement. So, the rally on Friday could have been the beginning of "my" X-mas rally (last week's chart):

There are things though I don't like. One example you can see on the following chart:

These fractals are so similar, especially the October and the actual one that I just have to show it to you. If you're familiar with fractals the October one would be the child fractal and the actual one the parent fractal. If the similarity continues the market should decline heavily next week contradicting my preferred Elliott Wave count.

The magic number stays at 1029. When this level is broken at least an Intermediate top or even THE top should be in.

Primary count: in (c) of [v] of C of (Y) of Primary [B] (last upwave)
Alternative count: 1114 was THE top for many many years (in [iii] of 1 of (1) of Primary [C]), confirmation below 1029

Sunday, November 22, 2009

Elliott Wave Update Week 47 2009 ~ 1029

SPX: A very interesting week!: the market closed on Friday where it closed last Friday.

The SPX completed an impulsive wave from the low at 1029 at 1114 near the 50% fibonacci retracement of Primary [A] on Monday. I count this five wave impulse as a wave (a) of [v] of an Expanding Ending Diagonal. Thus wave (b) is now underway with a target at 1070ish. After that the market should climb to new highs around X-mas or a bit earlier to complete the Expanding Ending Diagonal.

A drop below 1029 would invalidate all the short and intermediate term bullish counts and actually nearly confirm that Primary [C] is underway. Furthermore it would match my fractal I posted last weekend.

So that's what I'm waiting for now: a drop below 1029 ; )

Sunday, November 15, 2009

Elliott Wave Update Week 46 2009 ~ Spot on! NOT

SPX: After a very good last week, this week wasn't that good. Already on Monday the market opened above the important resistance level around 1075 suggesting that we might see a new high in the coming days.

Two days later the SPX hit 1105.37 making a new high in 2009 and invalidating the bearish count I posted last weekend.

As much as I would like to show you a bullish long term count, I just can't find one. So, there are few bearish options left of which I like the Expanding Ending Diagonal in the C wave position the most. I don't really like it but the other ones are even more crap ; )

Concentrating on the long term picture I spotted a nice fractal: Intermediate (2) of Primary [A]/[1] looks very similar to the current rally since March. It doesn't match perfectly but especially the last four months are very similar.

To sum up, I'm waiting now for a lower low, i. e. an SPX below 1030 to go short. That would confirm the Ending Diagonal Scenario and also match the Intermediate wave (2) fractal.

Have a good week.

Sunday, November 8, 2009

Elliott Wave Update Week 45 2009 ~ Spot on!

SPX: As expected last weekend, the market had a pretty good week and hit my short zone around 1070 on Friday. Thus, I think Minor 2 is in its final stage or has already finished at 1071.

As mentioned in the chart, Minor wave 3 should end in the mid 900's making it 1,62 times Minor wave 1. After that, Minor wave 4 and 5 should follow and complete Intermediate wave (1) around 900.

My targets for Primary wave [C] by the way are 466 and 539. So, until the market hits one of these targets, I remain a bear ; )

Primary count: at the end of Minor 2 of Intermediate (1) of Primary [C]
((Alternative count: in Intermediate (B) of Primary [B] ))

Have a good week!

Sunday, November 1, 2009

Elliott Wave Update Week 44 2009 ~ Is this a real bear?

or is it just another bear trap?

SPX: Although we can't be certain yet, it looks like the last week could have been the beginning of a new bear.

After the drop below 1075, the blue forecast having been confirmed, the market fell apart (see my chart from Wednesday). Now it looks like the first wave down is completed. The common target for wave 2 is between the 50% and 62% retracement level; if the market moved above it, I would start to worry (if you're a bear ofc).

So, a short trade around 1070 with a stop at 1102 and a target somewhere in the low-mid 900's looks really nice.

Primary count: in 1 or 2 of (1) of Primary [C]
Alternative count: in A of (B) of Primary [B], target for (B) would be around 900