Wednesday, October 31, 2012

S&P 500 ~ Pre-Market ~ 31 October 2012

I hope everybody in the Northeast in the US is ok.

Resistance levels are at 1421ish and at 1428ish. Support is at 1400 (which was hit during globex).

As long as we're below 1435, the medium-term trend is down.

ES ~ Globex ~ 31 October 2012

As expected, the ES dropped to 1400ish after 1420-25ish was broken:

The futures are rallying this morning and it looks like we could hit the strong resistance area at around 1420-25. There I expect at least a small correction of this upmove.

After that I'm not sure yet what will happen. One option is a break of 1433 and a rally back to the highs at 1460. A second option is a right shoulder (August left shoulder, September/October head, October/November right shoulder) of a huge H&S with a neckline at 1400.

Thursday, October 25, 2012

S&P 500 ~ EOD ~ 25 October 2012

The SPX hit the resistance around 1420 in the morning and then declined to a new downtrend low at 1405:

Wednesday, October 24, 2012

Silver ~ 24 October 2012

Just as gold, silver retraced about 50 % of the previous rally:

Silver has been downtrending since early October:

Not surprisingly, I expect the same for silver as I do for gold. The seasonal chart looks actually even better for silver:

Gold ~ 24 October 2012

Gold lost about 100 $ within three weeks retracing about 50 % of the huge rally which started in mid August:

We're now below the 1720-40 area which I thought would act as support. Nevertheless, I still think that a rally into year's end is more likely than a sell-off. So far this year the seasonality chart has worked very well:

As you can see, a correction from early to late October is actually quite normal. So, if gold makes some kind of a reversal within a week or so, we could see a nice rally into the end of the year.

1730 seems to be an important level. If gold can break it convincingly, the next move up should be underway.

S&P 500 ~ Intraday ~ 24 October 2012

I'll have some gold and silver charts a bit later.

Tuesday, October 23, 2012

S&P 500 ~ Intraday ~ 23 October 2012

The SPX opened below the support area at 1425ish and then declined another 10 handles to 1407:

As said earlier, the first target should be 1400ish.

As long as we stay below 1435 the bears should have the upper hand.

S&P 500 ~ Pre-Market ~ 23 October 2012

The futures sold off overnight and we're currently below yesterday's low!

Yesterday's daily candle looked actually very bullish but as I said yesterday, I'd like to see a rally above 1435 first before going long. And below you can see the reason I remained cautious yesterday:

Here you can see a very similar setup: A big reversal at a strong support level and a very bullish candle. The day after the SPX opened lower and declined 60 handles!

Thus, if we break yesterday's lows (during market hours) and stay below it, we could see 1400 very quickly.

Monday, October 22, 2012

S&P 500 ~ EOD ~ 22 October 2012

That was some huge turnaround at the bottom of the channel! I hope you took advantage of this rally:

The SPX also produced a nice reversal candle on the daily. If we can break today's high tomorrow, I think we'll rally back to the top of the channel.

S&P 500 ~ Intraday ~ 22 October 2012

The SPX is now at the very bottom of the channel. Let's see if we get a reversal here or just continue to move lower:

Dow Jones ~ Intraday ~ 22 October 2012

Nasdaq ~ Intraday ~ 22 October 2012

The Nasdaq (Comp.) has been looking much worse than the Dow and the SPX the past few weeks:

We're already at the July highs after the Nasdaq has breached the support at 3050ish on Friday.

I think we'll get a bounce here. Possible target is 3050ish.

S&P 500 ~ Pre-Market ~ 22 October 2012

I didn't expect such a big sell-off on Friday but well, there we are, back at the support at 1430:

Thus, if you're short, it might be time to sell a part of your position.

If the SPX forms a bottom today, we might rally back to the top of the channel once again. Should we convincingly breach 1425-30 though, a decline to 1400 seems likely.

Friday, October 19, 2012

S&P 500 ~ Intraday ~ 19 October 2012

As mentioned yesterday, a decline below 1454 would be bearish short-term and we could decline to 1430ish again.

Since 1430 is pretty far away,  I was looking for some targets which are nearer and I found the open gap at 1440ish:

So, if the SPX stays below 1454, we might close the open gap at 1440 and probably even decline to 1430 again. Else, if 1454 is breached again, a rally to 1470 should follow.

Dow Jones ~ Intraday ~ 19 October 2012

The Dow dropped below the support at 13520ish. Next target should be 13420ish and then if it drops further the strong support at 13300ish.

Thursday, October 18, 2012

S&P 500 ~ EOD ~ 18 October 2012

Despite Google's sell-off the SPX lost only 3.5 handles today:

As you can see in the chart above, we're near the top of the big range (1430-70) again. Thus, if you went long at the bottom of the range earlier this week, it might be a good point to sell some of your position.

If the SPX can break above 1470ish, we should see a rally to at least 1500. On the other hand if we decline much below 1454ish, a drop to 1430ish seems likely.

USD/JPY ~ 18 October 2012

The USD/JPY broke the declining trendline earlier this week:

I think we should see a rally to the resistance level just above 80 now.

Wednesday, October 17, 2012

EUR/USD ~ 17 October 2012

It looks like the EUR/USD formed a double bottom at 1.284ish. If it breaks 1.317ish, we should see a rally to 1.35ish.

Gold ~ 17 October 2012

Early October, gold hit the resistance at 1800ish a second time and then declined to the support area at 1740 again:

Once 1800ish is breached, the next target should be the all-time high. As long as 1720ish holds, I think this could even happen by the end of this year/early next year. Else, if we get below 1720, a retest of the strong support at 1640 might happen.

Tuesday, October 16, 2012

S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave ~ 16 October 2012

An alternative bullish count for the SPX:

The main difference between this count and the count posted earlier is how much upside is left for this rally.

If the market tracks this count, 1500ish is the likely target.

If the market tracks the other count though (see link posted above), 1600+ should be seen.

Edit: Corrected link (wrong link before)

Dow Jones ~ Elliott Wave ~ 16 October 2012

Below is an updated count for the Dow:

I slightly rearranged subwaves [i] and [ii] of 3 but overall not much has changed (last post): I continue to expect new all-time highs as long as 13300ish holds.

There is a slightly different bullish count which I'll show you for the SPX a bit later.

Monday, October 15, 2012

Friday, October 12, 2012

Intraday ~ 12 October 2012

The support levels still hold:

The SPX actually broke the first support level and reached the very top of the support area consisting of the May and August high (so basically catching up with the Dow):

Thursday, October 11, 2012

S&P 500 ~ Intraday ~ 11 October 2012

We're getting a nice bounce this morning.

A potential target are the low 145x's. (50 % retracement, breakdown area earlier this week, strong support/resistance the past few weeks)

Wednesday, October 10, 2012

EOD ~ 10 October 2012

Well, the supports held but so far we didn't get a bounce:

As shown in the chart, if 13300 is convincingly broken, a drop to 13000 is very likely in my opinion.

So far, it's only a test of the last highs though (similar to late August). So, if the Dow holds 13300, we should continue the medium-term uptrend.

A similar situation for the SPX:

The Nasdaq Composite looks actually the worst out of the three indices: we're already at the late Augst lows:

So, tomorrow should be quite interesting. We'll see if the support levels hold.

Dow Jones ~ Intraday 3 ~ 10 October 2012

As I didn't show you the support at 13330ish in the last post but only mentioned it, I thought I'd do a quick update:

The indices are rallying right now. Let's see if they make a higher low next. If so, we most likely have seen the lows of the day.

Nasdaq ~ Intraday ~ 10 October 2012

The Nasdaq is also near support:

S&P 500 ~ Intraday ~ 10 October 2012

The SPX is also at an important level:

Dow Jones ~ Intraday 2 ~ 10 October 2012

We're now at 13370ish. Let's see if we get some kind of a reversal (candle) here:

If 13370ish doesn't hold, the next target is 13330 (not shown in the chart) which should be another strong support.

Dow Jones ~ Intraday ~ 10 October 2012

The Dow is approaching the strong support level at 13370:

Tuesday, October 9, 2012

Dow Jones ~ Intraday ~ 9 October 2012

I added some support levels between 13520 and 13370. 13370 is still the support which must hold though if we want to see more upside before the election. If 13370 was breached, we would have a nice double top (13650) and the target for this formation would be 13000ish.

Short-term the market doesn't look healthy as long as it stays below 13560ish. Medium-term we're still in neutral territory (upper boundary at 13650 and lower at 13370).

Monday, October 8, 2012

AUD/USD ~ 8 October 2012

The AUD/USD seems to be forming a giant triangle:

If the support at 1.015ish is broken, the next target should be the triangle trendline at ~0.97

USD/JPY ~ 8 October 2012

The USD/JPY hit the declining trendline once again last week:

As already said in my last update, as long as we stay below the trendline, I think we could see 76ish.

Facebook ~ Update ~ 8 October 2012

I rarely post charts about individual stocks but this fractal looks too good not to post it:

The fractal is invalid above the red line. Interestingly, the big decline (in late October) coincides with the earnings.

Dow Jones ~ Pre-Market ~ 8 October 2012

The Dow retested its bull market highs on Friday and then reversed hard:

The futures are down at the moment, so the Dow should open around the support level at 13560ish.

If 13520ish holds, I think the correction since Friday will be only very-short term. After that we should rally back to the highs and eventually break it.

If 13520ish breaks though, the correction since mid September is probably still ongoing and we could decline much further. Especially because we might have a double top at 13650ish. But one thing at a time, let's see how the market reacts at 13520/60.

Friday, October 5, 2012

Dow Jones ~ Pre-Market ~ 5 October 2012

The Dow approached the resistance between 13600-50 again:

A break above it should lead to a big move higher. As long as we stay below it, the sideways correction with huge intraday swings should continue.

Thursday, October 4, 2012

ES ~ Intraday ~ 4 October 2012

After the break of the triangle yesterday, the market is moving up nicely today:

Silver ~ Update ~4 October 2012

Silver has been trading sideways for the past three weeks. As long as 33ish holds, I think this will be only a short-term correction before the next move higher. If 35 is broken, silver should target the 37-38ish area.

Gold ~ Update ~ 4 October 2012

Gold is still bumping against the resistance at 1790-1800. As long as 1720-40 holds, I think this will be only a short-term top though. If 1800 is convincingly breached, the next target should be the all-time highs.

Wednesday, October 3, 2012

ES ~ Intraday 2 ~ 3 October 2012

The triangle was breached earlier today and is now being retested:

Let's see if we can close above the triangle line or drop back below it by the end of the day.

ES ~ Intraday ~ 3 October 2012

Triangle forming in the ES: