Wednesday, November 30, 2011

S&P 500 ~ EOD Update ~ 30 November 2011

The SPX closed almost unchanged for November. Who would have thought that three days ago?

After rallying 88 handles within three days (!) we might get some kind of a consolidation early December (probably after one new high as shown in the chart). As we saw in October these consolidations can be mostly sideways so be careful if you're short (which I hope you aren't ; ) (or at least not since yesterday ; ))).

Below you can see my medium-term count. It looks like we completed wave B last Friday and are now in wave C. Possible targets are the October high at around 1293 or even the yearly high at 1370ish:

S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update 1 ~ 30 November 2011

Wow! I hope you took my advice not to short seriously... : )

After all it looks like the a-b-c count was still the right one... I'll post more about the possible wave count today after the close.

Tuesday, November 29, 2011

S&P 500 ~ EOD Update ~ 29 November 2011

The bounce from the sub 1160 area continued today. We hit 1204 early in the morning and then pulled back a bit and tested yesterday's high around the 1195-97 area:

As mentioned yesterday I think the rally should stop between ~1195 and 1210. So, if you went long around 1160 you might want to cover a part of your position.

The move from 1160 looks quite strong though so I wouldn't just blindly short around these levels. There is a pretty nice inverse H&S with a target of about 1235-40 so as long as the neckline at 1195ish holds we could go (much) higher.

Trade what you see, not what you think. ; )

Monday, November 28, 2011

S&P 500 ~ EOD Update ~ 28 November 2011

As mentioned last week my target for wave [iii] was 1153-58 which we (almost) hit on Friday (1158.66). From there we got a huge bounce:

The market already hit my preferred target for this fourth wave today (1195ish). But if we break today's high we could even see 1210ish. As you can see I think that this bounce will be short-lived and probably only last a couple of days.

Resistances are at today's high, 1210ish, 1215ish, and around 1230. If the market moves above 1215 and especially above 1230 you might better cover your shorts as we still could see my much-anticipated eoy rally... However, as long as we stay below it, bears should be safe and can await the next push lower.

S&P 500 ~ Pre-Market Warm-Up ~ 28 November 2011

The ES hit the 1180ish area shortly after the open. A small pullback followed and when Europe opened we broke through 1180 and are now near 1190. If 1180ish holds we could see 1200 or even 1210:

Friday, November 25, 2011

S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update 1 ~ 25 November 2011

1180ish looks likely:

fyi: Markets close in 2 hours (1 pm).

Wednesday, November 23, 2011

ES ~ Intraday Update 2 ~ 23 November 2011

S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update 1 ~ 23 November 2011

After closing around 1190 again yesterday the SPX opened lower today and is now trading below 1170. Thus, I think the bearish count is now much more likely:

Based on the count and fibonacci wave [iii] might end soon. It looks like we're already in subwave (v) and the sub 1160ish area seems to be a good place for a bottom. At 1153 wave [iii] is 1.62*wave [i], at 1155 is an open gap and at 1158 is the 62 % retracement level.

Monday, November 21, 2011

S&P 500 ~ EOD Update ~ 21 November 2011

The SPX hit my target of 1190 today:

The market even dipped below it intraday but closed above it. As said many times already I think the 1190ish level is very crucial.

If we get a convincing break and close below this level (yesterday's low - 1190ish) I think wave (C) to below 1070 has started. As long as this level holds though the downtrend since late October could only be an abc correction (as shown in the chart above). So, the next days will be very interesting. ; )

Thursday, November 17, 2011

S&P 500 ~ EOD Update ~ 17 November 2011

The SPX broke the lower triangle support line at the open and then sold off around 27 handles to 1210 : )

As already mentioned a few times 1190ish is my critical medium-term support level. If we break below it wave (C) is most likely underway. As long as it holds though we could still see an end of year rally. So, the next few days will be very crucial.

Wednesday, November 16, 2011

S&P 500 ~ EOD Update ~ 16 November 2011

Still no decision:

We're still inside the triangle. A break to the downside should lead to the 1190ish area (there is some strong support between 1220 and 1230 though) and a break to the upside to the 1310ish area.

ES ~ Update ~ 16 November 2011

Tuesday, November 15, 2011

S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update 1 ~ 15 November 2011

Wave [e] probably ended at 1244:

If so, we should see a break above 1265-67. Once above it the SPX shouldn't trade below 1244 again (for the next few weeks).

Monday, November 14, 2011

S&P 500 ~ EOD Update ~ 14 November 2011

It looks like the SPX is forming a triangle:

Once we break out of the triangle we should get a big move. I tend to a breakout to the upside because triangles tend to be continuation patterns and, as said earlier, end of year is usually bullish. A break above last week's high should lead to a rally to 1310ish or maybe even higher back to the yearly highs.
A break below 1220-30 should lead to the next support level at 1190ish.

Wednesday, November 9, 2011

S&P 500 ~ EOD Update ~ 9 November 2011

Huge down day today! The SPX lost 3.67 %!

We're back at the support around 1220-30. If it breaks below it the next stop is 1190ish. As said earlier, as long as 1190ish holds this should be only a correction and we can expect a rally into year end.

Gold ~ Update ~ 9 November 2011

Gold hit 1800 yesterday and is now only about 100 $ below its all-time high:

Since November and December are usually strong months for gold a rally to the all-time high is very likely. Support levels are at 1750ish and 1680ish and the trend is up as long as these hold.

EUR/CHF ~ Update ~ 9 November 2011

As expected the EUR/CHF is oscillating between the 1.24ish and the 1.20ish area. After hitting 1.24 in mid October the EUR/CHF declined to 1.21 by late October and is now back at 1.24ish on some rumors that the SNB might increase the minimum rate to 1.25 or 1.30:

Unless this happens I think the EUR/CHF will continue to trade between 1.24ish and 1.20ish.

Monday, November 7, 2011

S&P 500 ~ EOD Update ~ 7 November 2011

As said last week as long as 1190ish doesn't break I don't trust this sell-off from 1290ish.

End of year is often bullish, thus, as long as we stay above 1190 we could see higher prices (wave C to 1310ish or so).

Support levels are at 1220-1230 (top of previous range) and 1190ish. Resistances are at 1260ish, 1285 and then at 1300-10.

Wednesday, November 2, 2011

Silver ~ Update ~ 2 November 2011

Silver broke the resistance at 33-34 late October and then rallied to 36:

As long as ~33 holds the trend is up.

Gold ~ Update ~ 2 November 2011

Gold broke the resistance around 1700 about one week ago and then rallied to 1750:

So far, we've already got a 200+$ rally from the blue support line and as long as the 1680ish level holds the trend is up.

Tuesday, November 1, 2011

S&P 500 ~ EOD Update ~ 1 November 2011

Ping Pong: The market opened at the lower end of the support zone at 1220 and bounced to 1233 from there. By noon the SPX closed the gap at 1215 and then rallied again to 1233. By the end of the day we were back near the lows and closed at 1218.

As mentioned earlier today wave (B) probably ended at 1293 last week and we're in wave 1 of (C) now. I'm not convinced yet because late October to December is usually bullish. So, this could be only a correction. I think 1190ish has to hold though for the bullish scenario. So, if we break below 1190ish wave (C) is very likely.

Support levels are at 1215-20 and 1190ish. Resistances areas are at 1230-34, 1253 and 1285.

S&P 500 ~ Pre-Market Warm-Up ~ 1 November 2011

The ES hit 1212.50 a few minutes ago losing almost 80 handles within less than three days!

Wave (B) (or [2]) probably ended at 1293. Wave 1 of (A) was around 110 points. If we assume the same length for wave 1 of (C) we get a target of ~1185 which is right at the 1190ish support area.

Support levels are at 1220/30 and 1190ish. Resistances are at 1253 (today's gap), 1285, and 1300ish.