Monday, August 31, 2009

still no decision...

The EUR/USD is still trading in a narrow range (like the SPX) and is forming a rising wedge. A break below the support line would very likely confirm the bearish scenario.

Primary Count: At the beginning of [iii] of 1.
Alternative Count: In iii of (iii) of ?; A break above the high at 1.4446 would confirm this scenario. The top for Primary [2]/[B] would be delayed by some weeks.

Saturday, August 29, 2009

Will the top occur in September?

I think so! ; )

The entire last week the market was bouncing in a narrow range between 1020 and 1040. This whole action looks like when the top for Intermediate wave (W) was formed. Then, the market spent two weeks between 930 and 950 till it finally broke down.

So, I think we'll see another quite boring week without any big move.

A first indication that we'll be looking at the very first waves of the next Primary wave would be a breach of 1016, the low of wave [iv]. A break below the low of Minor B would very likely confirm it.

Primary count: wave (iii) of [v] of C in progress (Chart)
Alternative count: currently in wave [ii] or at the beginning of [iii] of C; the target in this case would lie at 1120ish.

The big picture: The long term count remains the same as shown in my last weekend update. Primary [B] (alt [2]) should conclude between 1014 and 1120 followed by Primary [C] (alt [3]) to 450-500 somewhen next year.

Wednesday, August 26, 2009

It's getting exciting

As mentioned in the last EUR/USD post a downwave to about 1.42 should follow. At the moment we are in this very downwave and almost hit 1.42 today. So far, the downwave doesn't look completed, neither for the bullish nor the bearish count, thus I expect at least one more wave down tomorrow.

Primary Count: currently in iii of (i) of [iii] of 1. Target for [iii] at 1.37ish.

Alternative: about to finish wave (ii); (iii) would follow to new highs soon.

...and a beautiful H&S:


a short SPX Update:

Primary count: currently in [4] of C of (Y) of [B]/[2]. Thus one last upwave to complete this bear market rally.

Alternative count: in (iv) of [i] of C of (Y) of [B]/[2]. In this case a top in the second half of September at 1120ish would be likely.

Monday, August 24, 2009

SPX Update - 1120 within one month?

I think, that wave [i] finished earlier today. Thus the market should be in wave [ii] to 1015ish at the moment before the next upwave should start.

Other possibilities are shown in the following chart:

Sunday, August 23, 2009

irregular flat?

And a second post for today: (Click here if you missed the first one)

Primary Count for EUR/USD: Completed a irregular flat (wave [ii]). Next: wave [iii] to ~1.38, invalid above 1.4446

Alternate: completed wave (i), wave (ii) this week, followed by wave (iii) to new highs.

Last chart (only posted at

Targets for Primary [C]

Since there is a high possibility that Primary [B] will end within some weeks I was looking for some targets for Primary [C].

My favourite area for a bottom is at 450-500. If Primary [C] should end there it would make two nice fibonacci relationships: [A]=1.62[C] and [A]=[C] (in % (=> both declines 58%))

Another target lies at 670ish where [A]=1.62[C] (in % (=> 58% for [A] and 36% for [C]))

The last target is much lower between 100 and 200 ([A]=[C]).

Saturday, August 22, 2009

I've already moved to my new URL: ; )

And as you can see it took less than three days (well, actually only three seconds : D).

I'm gonna post the new update tonight (for the Dollar, DAX and SPX)

Friday, August 21, 2009

Move to a new URL

I'm planning to move to a new URL this weekend.

But I'll probably write a last post somewhen tomorrow before I'm gonna move.

According to Google it might take up to three days till everything will be working, so during this peroid I won't be able to write any updates and the site might be down.

After (hopefully : )) less than three days you will be redirected to my new URL ; )

(Unfortunately I can't tell you my new URL because I haven't registered it yet. I have to register it directly before the change (because I'm gonna buy it through blogger ; )))

Have a nice weekend!

Thursday, August 20, 2009


There was actually no need for an intraday update, because the SPX kept on pushing higher.

It seems as we're in the topping process for the first wave up of C. After that, a wave [ii] down to 99x should follow before wave [iii] should carry the market to new highs.

There is still a small chance that today's high was just wave [x] of B, but as long as the market doesn't go below 990 (and 979) the bullish count is my favourite one.

Wednesday, August 19, 2009

The bullish count (again : ))

So far we've got three waves up from the low. If the market makes a new high tomorrow we can see a nice impulsive wave consisting of five waves, what should confirm the blue forecast.

But if the SPX should go below 991 without making a fifth wave before, the orange count would be more likely. Anything below 979 will definitely confirm the orange count.

Might write an intraday update tomorrow to make things clear ; )

Tuesday, August 18, 2009

the bullish count - review

Although the bullish count with one last down wave tomorrow to 96x is still possible I changed it a little bit because it fits better with the Dollar. I relabeled blue B to green [w] (as I mentioned as a possibility in yesterday's chart). This implicates that today's rally was wave [x] and the next decline down to 930-950 should be a wave [y] to conclude blue B. After that C should start to around 1040 to complete this Primary wave.

Monday, August 17, 2009

got our red close : D

Although everything looked a bit messy at the weekend, the market sold off today and closed at the low of the day.

As mentioned in my previous post I expected lower prices on Monday for the bearish and the bullish count. Now it looks like the market is in the last leg either of [c] of B (bullish) or (iii) (bearish).

At the moment I favor the bullish count with a last wave C up to finish this Primary [2] or [B] at the end of September between 1040 and 1120.

But if we get five waves down from the top we must consider that the next big down wave might be underway.

EUR/USD looks good so far. Made new lows today. Thus there is no need for an update ; )

Sunday, August 16, 2009

Prechter on Bloomberg

Hope you had a nice weekend. ; )

Prechter about the coming Primary [3] and the Dollar:

Saturday, August 15, 2009

What a mess!

The short term picture is actually very unclear but it looks like we've got a wave [a] from 1018 to 992, [b] from 992 to 1013 and are now in [c]. This [c] should conclude wave B somewhen next week. The following wave C should carry the market to new highs.

(alternative counts are shown in the chart below)

Friday, August 14, 2009

Start of wave [iii]?

On Wednesday I mentioned the possibility that wave [ii] hadn't ended yet. Already on Thursday we could see that this corrective wave was still underway. It actually hit the 62% retracement (a common retracement for a wave [ii]) and topped out.

After the support line was breached today, we could see some nice red candles into the close. That suggests that wave [iii] is underway.

Wednesday, August 12, 2009

so far so good : )

As expected on Monday the EURUSD had just finished wave [i] and was about to start wave [ii].

Two days later wave [ii] hit the 38% retracement level and therefore wave [iii] is possibly around the corner.

Monday, August 10, 2009

Sunday, August 9, 2009

First target hit!

Last friday, the market hit my first target for Primary [B] @ 1014. Thus it's possible that we'll see the very first waves of Primary [C] next week.

But at the moment it's too early to call a top. It's very likely that the market will turn around 950 and head for the 50% retracement @ 1120 later this year.

short term

I expected the market to confirm the correction last Monday. That didn't happen; actually even worse: the market surpassed the recent high and hit the 38% retracement at 1014 on Friday.

The supposed Ending Diagonal I mentioned during the week didn't work out as I'd hoped and could now morph into a Leading Diagnoal. In this very bullish count I would relabel green [iii] to blue A and green [iv] to blue B. Hence the B wave correction, everybody is waiting for, would already be over!

The other possibility is that we saw a rare Expanding Ending Diagonal. A drop below 992 should confirm it.

Tuesday, August 4, 2009

Ending Diagonal?

Just a quick update for the S&P ; )

Watching for a breach of the lower trendline.

Saturday, August 1, 2009

No confirmation yet.

Last Saturday I expected the market to reach the red resistance line before turning down. On Thursday this level was reached but we haven't got a confirmation yet, that the correction is underway. A break below 980 should confirm it.

On Friday the SPX and the VIX were up. Normally the following day is a down day, thus I expect the confirmation to happen on Monday.

Depending on how far the market will correct I have three different counts:

If the light green is the correct one, the market should turn between 920 and 950 and reach 1020-40 or 1125 later this year.

If 920 and 880 is breached, my "evil" count or a new downtrend should be underway.