Thursday, October 27, 2011

S&P 500 ~ EOD Update ~ 27 October 2011

The break of 1260 at the open cleared the way for a rally to the next resistance area at around 1300-10 - and we almost got there on the same day!

Supports are now at 1260ish and 1242. Next resistance is at around 1300-10. If the SPX gets above this area a rally back to the yearly highs is very likely.

Wednesday, October 26, 2011

S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update 1 ~ 26 October 2011

We got a very nice bounce from the support area at 1220. Up ~15 handles since 11 am! : )

Tuesday, October 25, 2011

S&P 500 ~ EOD Update ~ 25 October 2011

After hitting the strong resistance at 1260ish yesterday the SPX declined 2 % today:

Support areas are at 1230, 1215-1220 and 1190ish. Resistances are at 1260ish and just above 1300.

As you can see in the chart it looks like we're in wave C of (B). Likely targets are 1260ish (already hit) or 1300-10. If the SPX declines below 1190 wave (B) should be over and wave (C) should be underway.

Monday, October 24, 2011

S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update 1 ~ 24 October 2011

As mentioned many times a break of 1230ish should lead to a rally to the resistance around 1260. On Friday the SPX broke 1230 and today we're already at 1260ish!

Thursday, October 20, 2011

S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update 1 ~ 20 October 2011

So far, so good. We got a very nice correction from the resistance level at 1230:

We declined to below 1200 earlier today but unfortunately didn't quite get to the support area at 1190-95 so I actually missed my long entry by less than 2 handles.. : / But I hope you did better and were able to go long around noon ; ).

Wednesday, October 19, 2011

Silver ~ Update ~ 19 October 2011

Silver hasn't managed to break the resistance at 33-34 so far:

Support is at 26ish. Resistance areas are at 33-34, 37 and 39. As soon as 33-34 breaks we should resume the long-term uptrend.

Tuesday, October 18, 2011

Gold ~ Update ~ 19 October 2011

1700ish has proved to be a strong resistance so far:

Support is still at around 1550-70 and resistance at 1700ish. If we can break above it a rally back to the highs is likely.

S&P 500 ~ EOD Update ~ 18 October 2011

What a great day! The SPX hit the support area at 1190-95 in the morning and then rallied about 40 (!) handles to 1233 by late afternoon:

S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update ~ 18 Ocotber 2011

A very good day so far: The SPX hit the support area at 1190-95 shortly after the open and has rallied since then:

S&P 500 ~ Pre-Market Warm-Up ~ 18 October 2011

As already mentioned last week the last few days looks very similar to mid September:

Next support is around 1190-95 and if it breaks we should at least close the open gap at 1155 or even decline to 1120ish once again (like last month). Strong resistance is still at the top of the big range (~1120-1230) at 1220-30.

Friday, October 14, 2011

S&P 500 ~ Pre-Market Warm-Up ~ 14 October 2011

We got the expected correction yesterday and closed the open gap at 1195:

Overnight the market rallied and we're back near the resistance at 1220. A possibility is a double top similar to the one in mid September but let's see first what happens at the open.

Resistance areas are at 1220 and 1230. Supports are at yesterday's low, 1155, and 1120ish.

Wednesday, October 12, 2011

EUR/CHF ~ Update ~ 12 October 2011

Not much happened since the intervention of the SNB:

The EUR/CHF has slowly approached the resistance around 1.24-25 and the long-term downtrend line. I think this area will be very hard to break so a trading range of 1.20 to 1.24 for the next few weeks/months is likely.

Should we break above it though then we could see a move to 1.32ish.

S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 12 October 2011

The SPX hit the resistance at 1220 and then sold off into the close. ; )

We're up 145 handles within six days and since we approach strong resistance levels at 1220 and 1230 we might be due for a pullback.

Support areas are just below 1200, at 1155, and at 1120ish.

S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update 1 ~ 12 October 2011

After yesterday's consolidation just below 1200 the rally continues today. We're now up 140 points since last Tuesday!

Next resistance areas are 1220 and 1230.

Monday, October 10, 2011

S&P 500 ~ EOD Update ~ 10 October 2011

The rally continued today and we're now up 120 handles within a week!

The SPX opened above last week's high and rallied straight to the 1189-95 resistance from where we got a nice pullback of a few handles. By the end of the day though the SPX was back at the resistance and closed at 1195:

Resistances are at 1189-95 and 1220ish. Supports are at 1170ish and 1155.

Sensex ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 10 October 2011

Saturday, October 8, 2011

S&P 500 ~ Update ~ 8 October 2011

Within three days the SPX rallied almost 100 handles - from 1075 to 1171. It looks like the first move up is over and we could see a pullback early next week. Likely targets are 1140ish and 1120ish for wave [b]:

The market shouldn't decline below 1100ish again. If we do though then new lows are very likely. In my opinion though the odds are very high that we've seen the lows for the year.

Have a nice weekend!

Thursday, October 6, 2011

S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update 1 ~ 6 October 2011

The rally continues today and around noon we hit the resistance at 1160 and got a nice pullback of around nine handles:

Wednesday, October 5, 2011

S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 5 October 2011

Yesterday's late day ramp was quite impressive and today we rallied another 20 handles so it looks like wave 5 ended at 1075:

So we should see a rally back above 1200 which might last until the end of the year.

There's still a small chance that this is a big bull trap as we've seen them often during the 08 bear market. We could count the waves from the highs as a 1 2 [i] [ii]:

The next few days should help us to determine which count is underway. As long as the SPX doesn't break below 1100ish I think the low is in. If we do break it though then we could crash to below 1000 (!). However, as said earlier, I really think the low is in and we could see a nice rally from the current levels.

S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update ~ 5 October 2011

The rally continues today and we're already back at the 1136-40ish resistance area:

Next resistances above 1140 are the gap at 1160 and then 1190.

I'll post an updated EW count after the close.

Tuesday, October 4, 2011

S&P 500 ~ EOD Update ~ 4 October 2011

We got a very nice pullback from the 1100ish resistance area of about 25 handles. About one hour ago I thought that was quite a big move as it happened within just two hours...

... until we got this:

Support and resistance areas:

S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update 2 ~ 4 October 2011

The SPX quickly rallied back to the resistance around 1100 and closed the open gap. Once Apple's press conference started the market began to decline again and it looks like we need the iPhone 5 very soon or the SPX will hit new lows by the end of the day.

S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update 1 ~ 4 October 2011

The SPX lost another 20 handles this morning and is now trading clearly below 1100:

It seems as there is no support until the 1040-50 area. Resistances are at 1100ish and 1120ish.

An interesting analogy was posted on Zerohedge today:

"Oct 3, 2008: SPX=1099.23; VIX=45.14 is to Oct 3, 2011: SPX=1099.23; VIX=45.45 
Oct. 10, 2008: SPX=899.22VIX = 69.95 is to ...."

I don't think it'll happen again but interesting nonetheless ; )

Monday, October 3, 2011

S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 3 October 2011

In the morning we got a huge bounce from the 1120 support area back to the 1140ish resistance area. By noon though 1120 was breached and the SPX declined to below 1100 by EOD.

Once 1100ish is breached we could go down to 1040-50 or even 1000-10 fairly quickly:

See this post for the the bigger picture ((A) or [1]).