Support is at 1.217ish and then 1.20. If 1.217 holds, we could see another effort to break 1.25. If this happens, a rally to 1.275 and 1.32 should follow.
Showing posts with label EUR/CHF. Show all posts
Showing posts with label EUR/CHF. Show all posts
Thursday, January 31, 2013
EUR/CHF ~ 31 January 2013
The resistance at 1.25ish was too strong to be broken at the first attempt:
Support is at 1.217ish and then 1.20. If 1.217 holds, we could see another effort to break 1.25. If this happens, a rally to 1.275 and 1.32 should follow.
Support is at 1.217ish and then 1.20. If 1.217 holds, we could see another effort to break 1.25. If this happens, a rally to 1.275 and 1.32 should follow.
Wednesday, January 16, 2013
EUR/CHF ~ 16 January 2013
Apparently the SPX went into a coma so let's have a look at another patient that recently got out of a coma:
All of a sudden the EUR/CHF spiked up to 1.24ish, a level we haven't seen for more than a year. As you can see on the chart, the 1.24-25 area should be some heavy resistance. If breached though, we could see a rally to 1.275ish or even 1.32ish.
All of a sudden the EUR/CHF spiked up to 1.24ish, a level we haven't seen for more than a year. As you can see on the chart, the 1.24-25 area should be some heavy resistance. If breached though, we could see a rally to 1.275ish or even 1.32ish.
Thursday, September 6, 2012
EUR/CHF ~ Update ~ 6 September 2012
Exactly one year ago the Swiss National Bank (SNB) decided to peg the CHF to the EUR:
One year later the minimum rate at 1.20 still holds as the SNB doubled its foreign exchange reserves to 400 bln.
While this increase is worrying, I doubt that the SNB will stop buying EUR anytime soon. The Swiss economy isn't spared from the problems in the EU. It's not as bad as in the EU as the unemployment rate is still low at 2.9% and the GDP only started to decrease in the most recent quarter (-0.1%). But I still doubt that the SNB will put even more pressure on the economy anytime soon.
One year later the minimum rate at 1.20 still holds as the SNB doubled its foreign exchange reserves to 400 bln.
While this increase is worrying, I doubt that the SNB will stop buying EUR anytime soon. The Swiss economy isn't spared from the problems in the EU. It's not as bad as in the EU as the unemployment rate is still low at 2.9% and the GDP only started to decrease in the most recent quarter (-0.1%). But I still doubt that the SNB will put even more pressure on the economy anytime soon.
Wednesday, March 21, 2012
EUR/CHF ~ Update ~ 21 March 2012
As written in my update of early September 2011 I expected the EUR/CHF to trade in a narrow range, similar to what happened in 2009. So far so good:
Unless the SNB decides to take some action (e.g. increase the minimum rate) we have to expect this sideways trend to continue. So I think the easiest trade still is to go long at 1.20ish and short at 1.24-25.
Unless the SNB decides to take some action (e.g. increase the minimum rate) we have to expect this sideways trend to continue. So I think the easiest trade still is to go long at 1.20ish and short at 1.24-25.
Thursday, February 16, 2012
EUR/CHF ~ Update ~ 16 February 2012
As written in my EUR/CHF update of September 6th 2011 I expected the EUR/CHF to trade between 1.2 for the next few months and so far the EUR/CHF obeyed me... ; )
As long as these levels hold trading the EUR/CHF is quite simple - long at 1.2 and short at 1.24-25.
Tuesday, January 31, 2012
EUR/CHF ~ Update ~ 31 January 2011
As expected after the minimum rate was announced in September the EUR/CHF has been trading between 1.20 and 1.24 since then.
We're approaching the 1.20 level so a long here might be an interesting trade with a good risk/reward.
Wednesday, November 9, 2011
EUR/CHF ~ Update ~ 9 November 2011
As expected the EUR/CHF is oscillating between the 1.24ish and the 1.20ish area. After hitting 1.24 in mid October the EUR/CHF declined to 1.21 by late October and is now back at 1.24ish on some rumors that the SNB might increase the minimum rate to 1.25 or 1.30:
Unless this happens I think the EUR/CHF will continue to trade between 1.24ish and 1.20ish.
Unless this happens I think the EUR/CHF will continue to trade between 1.24ish and 1.20ish.
Wednesday, October 12, 2011
EUR/CHF ~ Update ~ 12 October 2011
Not much happened since the intervention of the SNB:
The EUR/CHF has slowly approached the resistance around 1.24-25 and the long-term downtrend line. I think this area will be very hard to break so a trading range of 1.20 to 1.24 for the next few weeks/months is likely.
Should we break above it though then we could see a move to 1.32ish.
The EUR/CHF has slowly approached the resistance around 1.24-25 and the long-term downtrend line. I think this area will be very hard to break so a trading range of 1.20 to 1.24 for the next few weeks/months is likely.
Should we break above it though then we could see a move to 1.32ish.
Tuesday, September 6, 2011
EUR/CHF ~ Update ~ 6 September 2011
Wow!
As of today the SNB will no longer tolerate a EUR/CHF below 1.20 francs. In other words the SNB joins the money printing policy which leaves gold as the last save haven...
After hitting the 1.18ish resistance the EUR/CHF sold off again and closed the gap around 1.11 early September. From this level we got the huge SNB spike today to way above 1.18ish. Next resistance is around 1.24, suppport at 1.18-19.
If you have a look at the action in 2009 (orange circle) you can see that there was actually no action - the EUR/CHF traded around 1.52 for the entire year. Back then the SNB didn't tolerate a EUR/CHF below 1.5. Today the minimum rate is 1.20 so if the SNB really wants to defend the 1.20 level we might see the same again: sideways between 1.20-24 for the next few months.
But mabe the situation will change again in two weeks when the FED strikes back... ; )
Wednesday, August 17, 2011
EUR/CHF ~ Update ~ 17 August 2011
The EUR/CHF rallied even more than the USD/CHF during the last couple of days and is back at the 1.14-15ish resistance:
Resistance levels are at 1.14-15ish, 1.18 and 1.24. Support is at 1.11ish.
Resistance levels are at 1.14-15ish, 1.18 and 1.24. Support is at 1.11ish.
Tuesday, August 9, 2011
EUR/CHF ~ Update ~ 9 August 2011
One week ago, when I posted my last update, the EUR/CHF was trading around 1.10.
Today the EUR/CHF plunged below 1.05!
At this speed we'll be below 1.00 by the end of next week... We'll see if we really get this low or if the SNB steps in earlier and tries to weaken the CHF.
Resistance levels are around 1.07-08, 1.14ish and 1.18ish.
Today the EUR/CHF plunged below 1.05!
At this speed we'll be below 1.00 by the end of next week... We'll see if we really get this low or if the SNB steps in earlier and tries to weaken the CHF.
Resistance levels are around 1.07-08, 1.14ish and 1.18ish.
Tuesday, August 2, 2011
EUR/CHF ~ Update ~ 2 August 2011
Since my last update the EUR/CHF has lost another five cents and declined to below 1.10 this morning!
Resistances are at 1.14ish and 1.18ish. As long as these levels hold the trend is still down.
Resistances are at 1.14ish and 1.18ish. As long as these levels hold the trend is still down.
Monday, July 25, 2011
EUR/CHF ~ Update ~ 25 July 2011
The EUR/CHF rallied to the resistance around 1.18 and then started to decline again:
Resistances remain at 1.18ish and 1.24ish. Support is at the recent low at 1.14ish.
Resistances remain at 1.18ish and 1.24ish. Support is at the recent low at 1.14ish.
Tuesday, July 19, 2011
EUR/CHF ~ Update ~ 19 July 2011
As said last week sell the rips and don't buy the dips ; )
Resistances are at 1.18ish and at 1.24ish.
Resistances are at 1.18ish and at 1.24ish.
Monday, July 11, 2011
EUR/CHF ~ Update ~ 11 July 2011
The EUR/CHF broke the short-term downward channel late June and then rallied almost up to the medium-term resistance at 1.24. Since then it has sold-off again and hit a new low today at 1.1750.
There's actually no support below 1.18 since we're at all-time lows. The blue channel line may be some sort of suppport. As I've been saying for months now though I'd rather sell the rips than buy the dips.
Medium-term resistances are at 1.24ish and 1.27ish. As long as we stay below these levels the medium-term trend is down.
Short-term resistances are at 1.18 (if we don't rally back above it within the next few minutes) and at 1.20ish.
There's actually no support below 1.18 since we're at all-time lows. The blue channel line may be some sort of suppport. As I've been saying for months now though I'd rather sell the rips than buy the dips.
Medium-term resistances are at 1.24ish and 1.27ish. As long as we stay below these levels the medium-term trend is down.
Short-term resistances are at 1.18 (if we don't rally back above it within the next few minutes) and at 1.20ish.
Sunday, June 26, 2011
Weekend Update ~ 26 June 2011
Big update today because I'm on summer vacation until July 7th.
As already mentioned on Friday the SPX has been trading between 1260 and 1296 since early June and I hope it will continue till I'm back... ; )
It looks like a big flat has been underway since mid February. We're currently in wave [iv] or already in wave [v] of wave C so we should bottom out within the next one or two weeks:
If the market declines below 1260ish a sell-off to 1220-30 or even a tad lower to the weekly MA 76 (currently around 1200 and rising 2 handles/week) is very likely. A convincing break of 1296 though is bullish and should lead to a rally to 1313 and then 1345.
USD/CHF
As said last week as long as the USD/CHF stays below 0.86 the trend is down. We've already seen a new low on Friday and if we get a convincing break of the 0.83 area we may see 0.80 very soon.
EUR/CHF
Not much happened since my last update. The EUR/CHF just continues to go lower and as long as the channel holds I continue to expect lower prices.
EUR/USD
The EUR/USD has bounced off of the 1.41 area a few times already and it looks a bit like a contracting triangle is forming. If we break lower we could see 1.34-35 later this year and if we break higher a rally to 1.50ish again is likely.
Gold
Nothing really changed. Still in an uptrend as long as the uptrend line holds
The European Debt Crisis... : ))
Have a great rest of the weekend/next week and a great Independence Day to the US readers! ; )
See you on July 7th!
Hugo
As already mentioned on Friday the SPX has been trading between 1260 and 1296 since early June and I hope it will continue till I'm back... ; )
It looks like a big flat has been underway since mid February. We're currently in wave [iv] or already in wave [v] of wave C so we should bottom out within the next one or two weeks:
If the market declines below 1260ish a sell-off to 1220-30 or even a tad lower to the weekly MA 76 (currently around 1200 and rising 2 handles/week) is very likely. A convincing break of 1296 though is bullish and should lead to a rally to 1313 and then 1345.
USD/CHF
As said last week as long as the USD/CHF stays below 0.86 the trend is down. We've already seen a new low on Friday and if we get a convincing break of the 0.83 area we may see 0.80 very soon.
EUR/CHF
Not much happened since my last update. The EUR/CHF just continues to go lower and as long as the channel holds I continue to expect lower prices.
EUR/USD
The EUR/USD has bounced off of the 1.41 area a few times already and it looks a bit like a contracting triangle is forming. If we break lower we could see 1.34-35 later this year and if we break higher a rally to 1.50ish again is likely.
Gold
Nothing really changed. Still in an uptrend as long as the uptrend line holds
The European Debt Crisis... : ))
Have a great rest of the weekend/next week and a great Independence Day to the US readers! ; )
See you on July 7th!
Hugo
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