Tuesday, January 31, 2012

EUR/CHF ~ Update ~ 31 January 2011

As expected after the minimum rate was announced in September the EUR/CHF has been trading between 1.20 and 1.24 since then.

We're approaching the 1.20 level so a long here might be an interesting trade with a good risk/reward.

S&P 500 ~ Pre-Market Warm-Up ~ 31 January 2012

Looks like my wild ass guess that a correction was underway is correct... : )

Wave [ii] took about two weeks to unfold. So far, wave [iv] has only lasted three days so, most likely this correction takes a few more days to complete.

As said earlier the 1265 level is important for the medium-term uptrend.

Thursday, January 26, 2012

S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update 1 ~ 26 January 2012

Since the bounce at the support area around 1200ish mid-late December the SPX has been in a solid uptrend. As long as we stay in this channel you shouldn't even think of going short. Rather stay long and enjoy the ride up... it's as simple as that.

As you can see in the chart I added a tentative wave [iii] so we could see a small correction late January/early February. The uptrend looks very strong though, so, I wouldn't short just because there is now a wave [iii] at 1335...

Maybe you remember the big picture post I wrote about three weeks ago. If not, shame on you! Go and read it again: http://www.wavaholic.com/2012/01/s-500-big-picture-4-january-2011.html. : )

Since the market just kept moving higher the bullish count looks now pretty good. And as long as the SPX stays above 1265 it's my preferred count. So, at worst if you went long around 1270 earlier this year you'd get stopped out at break even (but you probably went long earlier or you already sold some of your longs this week so you'd be up even if you get stopped out at 1265ish ; ))

Friday, January 20, 2012

Silver ~ Update ~ 20 January 2012

It's been almost a month since my last post on silver. Late December silver hit the support level at 26 $. Since then it has moved back up and hit the resistance area around 31 $ yesterday. If we can break it the next target should be 33 $:

Thursday, January 19, 2012

S&P 500 ~ EOD Update ~ 19 January 2012

As said last week, as long as the SPX stays above 1265 the trend is up:

Support levels are at 1295ish and 1265ish. I'll post more tomorrow morning.

Thursday, January 12, 2012

Gold ~ Update ~ 12 January 2012

As pointed out in my last update three weeks ago that, despite the break of the orange trendline, I wouldn't short gold because there is huge support around 1550.

And that's what has happened since then:

We got a huge bounce at the support at 1550ish and are now back at the 1670ish resistance area. If gold can break this area we could see a rally towards the all-time highs at 1900+. A break below 1550 on the other hand should lead to a sell-off to 1420-30.

Just out of interest I had a look at the linear scale chart of gold:

And guess what... there was a perfect test of the orange trendline. So, I guess gold bulls will use the linear scale chart now... : )

Tuesday, January 10, 2012

S&P 500 ~ Pre-Market Warm-Up ~ 10 January 2012

So far, the market hasn't moved anywhere this year as we're still trading around 1280.

The ES rallied overnight though so the SPX will open around the October highs this morning. If we can break it we could even see 1300 today.

As long as the SPX doesn't close below 1265 we should go higher.

Thursday, January 5, 2012

S&P 500 ~ EOD Update ~ 5 January 2012

The SPX retested the previous resistance at 1265 today which is now support:

If you have a look at the chart it looks like the market formed an inverse H&S with a neckline at around 1265. So, if the SPX stays above this level we might go a lot higher. The target for this H&S is at around 1370.

Wednesday, January 4, 2012

S&P 500 ~ Big Picture ~ 4 January 2012

It's been a bit more than three months since my last long-term update for the SPX.

During these three months the market moved almost as expected: Early October we got a decline below 1100 to complete five waves down from 1370. Then, on October 5th, I turned bullish and expected a three wave move to 1260ish. At the moment we're a bit above the 1260 level but it looks like we're in the last wave of this correction:

Both counts are very similar, at least short- and medium-term. At the moment I don't really care which one is correct as we can assess the situation again once we are around SPX 1000.

1160 and 1200 are the important levels to watch. If we break below these then the next downwave is most likely underway i. e. a sell-off to ~1000 should occur. The SPX shouldn't rally much above 1310 though else these counts are very, very unlikely.

Although these two counts look pretty good I always like to be as objective as possible and the rally from the October low has already retraced more than the usual 62 % so the following count is an alternative you definitely have to consider:

What if the correction (wave [X]) already ended at 1075? Maybe we're already in wave [Y] up towards new all-time highs (I know the economy is in bad shape but after all we're only 300 handles away which isn't that much since the market has already rallied 600 handles from the lows (and the economy wasn't in better shape back then...)).

In my opinion the level which has to hold is 1200. In fact, we should see a quick rally back to 1370 during Q1 2012.

To sum up, the counts point in different directions so I suggest to use the 1200 (or 1160) level to make your decision. If we're below it = bearish and above = bullish.

I think we'll know within a few weeks which way the market will most likely go this year so check out my daily updates. ; )

Tuesday, January 3, 2012

Updates will resume tomorrow

I hope you had a great Christmas and a good start into the new year : )

I wish you all the best in 2012!!

Daily updates will resume tomorrow morning before the open.