S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 16 October 2014

The break of 1905 confirmed that the Primary wave that started in 2011 is over. The SPX already lost 200 handles from the top - the biggest decline since 2011.

Below you see my bearish long-term count (I'll post a more bullish one later).

It's possible that we entered a new bear market. However, for now, it's way too early to tell. But even if this is just a correction, I think a decline to the lower trendline is likely.

---

Author: Patrick Eugster

S&P 500/Dow Jones ~ 12 October 2014

The Dow and the SPX broke below the lower trendline:

It looks like the trend is down now. I still prefer to see a decline below the August low before turning long-term bearish.

---

Author: Patrick Eugster

S&P 500/Dow Jones ~ 8 October 2014

The Dow and the SPX hit the lower trendlines again today:

As long as these trendlines hold, the long-term trend is still up.

If 17140ish and 1984ish break, we should see a rally to the upper trendline again.

---

Author: Patrick Eugster

S&P 500/Dow Jones ~ EOD ~ 3 October 2014

The SPX and the Dow hit my target levels yesterday and then started to rally again.

If the Dow breaks 17140ish, we should see a rally to the upper trendline again at 17400ish.

A rally above 1984ish should clear the way for new highs.

---

Author: Patrick Eugster

S&P 500 ~ Intraday ~ 1 October 2014

The SPX hit my target at 1944ish:

We could see a at least a short-term rally now.

---

Author: Patrick Eugster

S&P 500 ~ EOD ~ 29 September 2014

As long as we are below 1984 I think the next target should still be 1944ish:

---

Author: Patrick Eugster

S&P 500 ~ EOD ~ 25 September 2014

The SPX lost 32 handles today after breaking the support at 1984:

The next target should be 1944.

---

Author: Patrick Eugster

S&P 500 ~ EOD ~ 24 September 2014

Once again, the SPX turned at the support at 1984ish:

As long as this level holds, the medium-term trend is still up. If it breaks, a decline to 1944ish is likely.

---

Author: Patrick Eugster

S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 22 September 2014

---

Author: Patrick Eugster

S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 18 September 2014

It's rather difficult to tell whether the decline to 1980 was a fourth wave, as shown in the chart below, or only a second wave of a much larger motive wave up.
Whatever the case may be, I think the next stop is 2040ish.

---

Author: Patrick Eugster

S&P 500 ~ Intraday ~ 16 September 2014

The bears tried repeatedly but eventually failed to break 1984ish convincingly. The SPX broke out of the declining channel today and should now head towards the all-time highs.

---

Author: Patrick Eugster

S&P 500 ~ Pre-Market ~ 15 September 2014

The SPX is trading right at the support at 1984ish. As said in earlier posts, if this level holds, the current correction is only short-term and we should see higher prices soonish. If it is convincingly broken though, a decline to 1945ish is likely.

---

Author: Patrick Eugster

S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 9 September 2014

The SPX hit the support at 1984ish today. As long as this level holds, I still think that we'll see higher prices. However, as long as 2010 isn't broken, we're in neutral territory.

---

Author: Patrick Eugster

S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 8 September 2014

It looks like 1990 was the low of wave [iv]. Hence, we should be in wave [v] now. As mentioned in some of my earlier posts, a rally to the rising trendline, currently at 2030ish, should follow next if 2010ish is broken convincingly.

---

Author: Patrick Eugster

ES ~ Intraday ~ 5 September 2014

The S&P futures continue to fluctuate between 1990-1993 and 2010:

It looks like we're on our way to 2010 again.

---

Author: Patrick Eugster

S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 4 September 2014

The SPX has fluctuated around 2000 for the last two weeks and hasn't decided yet whether to continue the rally or not. I still think that a continuation to 2040 is possible. However, if 1984ish doesn't hold, 2011 is most likely a medium-term high. In that case, the market should move towards the lower trendline currently sitting at around 1930.

---

Author: Patrick Eugster

S&P 500 ~ Pre-Market ~ 3 September 2014

Overnight, futures rallied and hit new all-time highs at ES 2011.

The last six days the SPX traded within a narrow range around 2000. If we can break 2005ish convincingly today, we should leave this range and head towards the trendline at 2030-40.

---

Author: Patrick Eugster

S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 2 September 2014

As mentioned yesterday, it looks like we are at the end of a Primary wave (black [3] or [C]). If that's the case, a big correction should follow (like in 2011) or even a new bear market could start.

In the last three years, there were nine pullbacks. Four of them were around 84 points, three of them around 130 (the largest was 156 points). Moreover, no pullback declined below the low of the previous pullback, i. e. we got a series of higher lows (and higher highs).

Hence, unless we get a decline that exceeds 130ish points and dips below 1905 (the low of the previous pullback), the uptrend is intact and thus, pullbacks should be bought.

---

Author: Patrick Eugster

S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 1 September 2014

Hi all,

It's been in a long time since my last update! I posted my last Elliott wave count ten weeks ago. In the meantime, the SPX climbed 50 points and reached the 2000 level. Despite this, my count is still valid and thus I haven't changed anything except for adding the proper subwaves:

It looks like the rally which started three years ago is soon coming to an end as we seem to be in a fifth of a fifth of a Primary wave. The waves actually line up pretty well with the end of QE in October which will likely have a negative impact on the market.

Medium- and short-term counts follow tomorrow morning.

---

Author: Patrick Eugster

S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 24 June 2014

The last few days went as expected. We got a short-term correction last week followed by a rally to new highs:

It looks like wave 3 is already completed. If so, we should see a sideways correction over the next few weeks.

---

Author: Patrick Eugster