Friday, June 28, 2013

ES ~ EOD ~ 28 June 2013

The ES declined below 1606 and then sold off to the support at 1595ish:

If the support holds, I think we should move towards 1620ish next week.

ES ~ Globex ~ 28 June 2013

I'm not quite sure whether we go to 1595 or 1620 from here:

I think as long as we stay above 1606ish, 1620 is more likely though.

Gold ~ 28 June 2013

Gold declined to below 1200 overnight:

Since the top in 2010, gold has now declined almost 40 %.

I think there is not much downside left. Initially I preferred 1250 as a target for this decline. We declined to 1180 now which is also a decent support area. The next support area is at 1000-50. I doubt that we'll drop that low, though. So, I'm now looking for gold to find a bottom within the next few weeks and then participate in the next wave up to new all-time highs.

Thursday, June 27, 2013

S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 27 June 2013

Wave 4 is probably over. I think a convincing break of 1624ish should confirm it:

For a medium- and long-term count please visit this site.

ES ~ Globex ~ 27 June 2013

The S&P future rallied overnight and is now above 1600:

I think 1620ish is now the next target.

Wednesday, June 26, 2013

S&P 500 ~ EOD ~ 26 June 2013

The SPX broke 1595ish and hit almost the resistance at 1608/9ish today:

The short-term trend is up above 1595. If 1609ish breaks, 1624 should be next.

Tuesday, June 25, 2013

S&P 500 ~ EOD ~ 25 June 2013

The SPX almost hit the resistance at 1595 to 1600. It will be interesting to see what happens there. If it breaks, 1609 and 1624 are the next targets. Should we get a reversal though, a decline to 1580 or even lower is likely.

ES ~ Globex ~ 25 June 2013

We could see a rally to 1595ish today if 1575ish holds:

Monday, June 24, 2013

Alcoa ~ 24 June 2013

Down to 5 $?

S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 24 June 2013

Updated medium-term count:

For the long-term count I posted on Sunday click here.

USD/CHF ~ 24 June 2013

EUR/USD ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 24 June 2013

Updated count:

(previous count)

S&P 500 ~ Intraday ~ 24 June 2013

The decline continues:

The next strong support is at 1540ish.

ES ~ Globex ~ 24 June 2013

The futures declined overnight and are now trading around the 2007 high.

It looks like the ES is forming a wedge. If it breaks the upper trend line, we could see a rally back to 1595ish.

Sunday, June 23, 2013

S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 23 June 2013

Once you have a count there is a tendency to stay with this count and adjust it over time. At the start these adjustments are small but after a while they add up. Eventually, this can lead to counts which just don't look right anymore.

Having had my long-term count for more than three years it has changed from a simple zigzag into a double zigzag and currently into a triple zigzag. Triple zigzags occur only very rarely though, and in fact, I think the count looks very unproportional.

Thus, I deleted my long-term SPX count on Friday and recounted the SPX without any bias. And that's the result:

I actually like it much more than my previous count. It's much simpler and many problems are gone.

You could count wave [C]/[3] slightly differently. It is possible that we are still in wave 3 of (3) or already in wave (4).

The very-long term count remains the same. I still think that eventually we will end up at levels lower than in 2009.

Friday, June 21, 2013

ES ~ Globex ~ 21 June 2013

The futures rallied overnight. The ES is back at the resistance level at 1595ish:

If 1595ish is breached, I think we could see a rally to 1620ish.

BBRY ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 21 June 2013

Updated short-term count:

(previous count)

For long-term counts please click here and here.

Thursday, June 20, 2013

Gold and Silver ~ 20 June 2013

Gold declined below 1300 today and is approaching my main target I gave in April after 1550ish was breached:

Silver is already at the next support level around 19ish:

I think we could see at least a short-term rally at these support levels. The overall trend remains down though as long as we stay below 1350 and 22.

S&P 500 ~ EOD ~ 20 June 2013

The SPX closed below the support level (1595-1600):

If we can close a second time below this level tomorrow, I think 1540 will be our next target.

There was a lot of action also in the gold and silver markets. I will post some charts later.

S&P 500 ~ Intraday 2 ~ 20 June 2013

The SPX hit the support at 1600ish and rallied to the resistance around 1610ish:

Since then we sold off again though and are again at 1600ish.

If this level is convincingly broken, I actually think that we could drop to 1540ish. If it holds though, the upside targets are still the same: 1610ish and 1623ish.

S&P 500 ~ Intraday ~ 20 June 2013

Almost there:

Around this area I think we will see a short-term rally. Possible targets are 1610ish and 1623ish.

ES ~ Globex ~ 20 June 2013

The decline continued during Globex. The ES is quickly approaching the strong support area at 1595ish:

Wednesday, June 19, 2013

S&P 500 ~ EOD ~ 19 June 2013

After Bernanke spoke the SPX sold off and closed 23 handles lower:

It looks like 1623ish is our next target. If it breaks, we should sell off to 1600ish again.

S&P 500 ~ Intraday ~ 19 June 2013

It looks like everbody is waiting for Bernanke.

Monday, June 17, 2013

EUR/USD ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 17 June 2013

Updated count:

(Previous count)

S&P 500 ~ Intraday ~ 17 June 2013

The SPX broke the neckline and rallied to the next resistance at 1647ish (1640 for the ES):

A break of 1647ish should lead to a big rally. Objectives are 1663ish and 1672ish. Short-term, the trend remains up as long as 1640ish isn't convincingly broken.

ES ~ Globex ~ 17 June 2013

The futures are up and currently at the resistance at 1633ish:

If we can take out 1633, a rally to 1640ish should follow. If 1633ish holds though, I think a gap close is likely at 1620ish (1627 for the S&P 500).

Thursday, June 13, 2013

ES ~ EOD ~ 13 June 2013

Impressive rally today. Almost hit my second target at 1640ish:

ES ~ Globex ~ 13 June 2013

The futures declined to the support at 1595ish (~SPX 1600) overnight:

If this level holds, we could see a short-term rally. Possible targets are 1620 and 1640.

Wednesday, June 12, 2013

S&P 500 ~ EOD ~ 12 June 2013

The decline continued after 1622ish was broken. We're now already near 1610:

As mentioned earlier, I think we could see 1600ish soon.

S&P 500 ~ Intraday ~ 12 June 2013

The SPX is back at the support around 1622ish:

If the support breaks, I think we could see a sell-off to 1600.

ES ~ Globex ~ 12 June 2013

The futures rallied overnight and are now approaching the neckline of the potential inverse H&S:

As said a few times already, I'm bullish above 1650 and bearish below 1620.

Tuesday, June 11, 2013

Dow Jones ~ Intraday ~ 11 June 2013

S&P 500 ~ Intraday ~ 11 June 2013

Stopped right at the support level:

As said before, a decline below 1622ish should lead to a sell-off to 1600. If the bulls can turn it around though and we rally above 1633ish, I think we should close the gap at 1642.

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ES ~ Globex ~ 11 June 2013

The futures sold off overnight:

The ES dropped below the lower trend line of the triangle I showed yesterday and then sold off.

There should be some strong support at around 1620ish. If the decline doesn't stop there though, today could turn out to be very ugly for the bulls as the next support area is only at 1595ish:

EUR/USD ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 11 June 2013

1.307ish was broken earlier this month which pretty much invalidated all short-term bearish counts.

As long as the EUR/USD holds above 1.318ish, I think the rally should continue.

Monday, June 10, 2013

S&P 500 ~ EOD ~ 10 June 2013

The resistance at 1646-47 held all day long:

It looks like the market formed a small triangle today. Let's see which way it breaks tomorrow.

S&P 500 ~ Pre-Market ~ 10 June 2013

Short-term the trend is up as long as the SPX stays above 1633ish. If we decline below it, we should close Friday's gap at 1622.

Resistance seems to be at the June 6th high at around 1646. If broken, 1652 and 1661 should follow.

Thursday, June 6, 2013

S&P 500 ~ EOD ~ 6 June 2013

What a reversal! I certainly didn't expect to see 1620 already today!

S&P 500 ~ Intraday ~ 6 June 2013

Target reached:

As mentioned earlier, I wouldn't be surprised to see a bottom in this area and then a rally back towards 1620ish.

Gold ~ 6 June 2013

Gold has been trading around 1400 for the last few days. It looks like we'll get a big move soon:

ES ~ Globex ~ 6 June 2013

The futures were rallying for most of the night. However, about an hour ago, the market turned and we're now below yesterday's low and just a few handles away from the strong support at 1595ish:

Once we are at 1595ish I think we could see a rally. The main target would be 1620ish.

Wednesday, June 5, 2013

S&P 500 ~ Intraday ~ 5 June 2013

The decline continues today. 1623ish was broken earlier today and thus it looks like we're on the way to 1595ish:

The May 3 low at 1613 might be some weak support but below that the next stop should be 1595.

ES ~ Globex ~ 5 June 2013

The futures hit the support at 1622ish once again during the night:

As you can see, if 1620 is breached, we should decline to 1595ish. On the other hand, if 1640ish is convincingly breached, we might rally back towards the highs.

Tuesday, June 4, 2013

S&P 500 ~ Intraday 2 ~ 4 June 2013

That was a quick ten points. :)

If 1623 breaks, the next objective is 1600.

S&P 500 ~ Intraday ~ 4 June 2013

I'm not quite sure what's going on. The market is declining on a Tuesday! I guess this has to be fixed soon.

If we decline below 1634, we should see a decline to 1623.