Looking for <900

-short term update SPX-

As long as the SPX doesn't trade above 930 the following count is valid ; )

The DAX joins the group ; )

Here it comes... my first DAX count : D

Compared to the SPX the DAX looks quite bearish. We got five waves down, followed by three waves up. Wave [iii] (or [c]) should start soon.

Coming soon... : iii of (iii) of [iii]

edit: next update follows on Monday morning ; )

-short term update-

A glance into the future...

-intermediate and long term update-

My short term count is still valid thus there is no need to update it. ; )

My intermediate term forecast looks as follows:

I know, it seems a bit unrealistic that the market will break the strong support at 880 without a decent bounce first. But if the market is in wave [iii] it should break the support without any problem.

Let's take a look on my two long term counts.

Preferred count (blue):

The market completed Intermediate (4) of Primary [1] or [A] in June 09 at 956 and is now in Intermediate (5). Wave (5) should last a couple of months and make new lows.

If we see some corrective stuff in the next weeks the orange forecast should be the right one. After a correction to about 800 we should see new highs later this year before Primary C will start.

Five waves down!

As expected, we got our wave (iv) to ~930 followed by a wave (v) to ~910 to complete wave [i]. In the next few days the market should rally into the red marked area (~930). After that, wave [iii] should start and break hopefully the strong support at 880.

Was 956 the top of the rally? It seems so!

-short term update-

A nice day for the bears! The market broke the support lines around 926. Thus the orange count is invalid.

There are now two possibilities: Either the top was Intermediate (A) of Primary B or it was Intermediate (4) of Primary 1/A. In the first case the market should correct about 50% of the entire rally from 667 to 956. In the second case the market should make slightly lower lows (~640) in the summer.

Blue or orange?

-short term update-

Well, the market hit my pivot today and sold off afterwards. I sold all my calls today at 952 as the rally could be over.

Both counts I posted yesterday are still valid:

Blue count

A drop below 924 confirms the blue count. The next important support level is at 880. If the market drops below that level the current rally should have ended at 956.

Orange count

Wave i of (iii) ended today at 956. Wave ii should correct to 940-945 before wave iii of (iii) starts to reach new highs. This count is invalid as soon as the market drops below 928.

942 940 939 942 939...

-short term update-

Above you see the closes of the last five trading days... I hope the market won't be caught in this trading range forever : )


Blue
Today's low should have completed wave e of a triangle. Wave (v) to ~960 should follow.


Orange
I labeled today's low as a wave (ii). Wave (iii) started in the last two hours and should carry the market to 1000+.

Forecasts

I changed my blog a little bit:

In the sidebar on the right you can see now three different forecasts (short, intermediate and long term).

I believe it gives you a better overview than before ; )

Hugo pivots

Hugo pivots

I tested them for many weeks... and now it's time to present you the Hugo pivots : ))

The Hugo pivots (purple lines) are important resistance/support levels for the market. As you see in the chart at the bottom, every time the market hit a pivot from below for the first time, it corrected at least 20 points.

I believe that either the pivot at 957 or the pivot at 1025 should be the top for the current rally. Thus if 957 is broken 1025 should be the next possible turning point.


Last week

If you look at my forecast from last week , you will see that the market nearly obeyed my forecast : ). First, the market declined to the support lines at 925-930, then it rallied to the target area for wave (i)/(4) at 950-960.


Next week

It's possible that 952 was the top for the current rally. But I'm NOT short right now. I wait till the market will break the support lines at 925 and 914.

Looking for a new high in the next days

We got our correction : )

I see two slightly different counts:

In the first case the market completed wave (iv) and it should make new highs in the next few days (950-960). (blue)

If we look at the fractal, the market should gap down tomorrow to finish wave (iv) before moving higher. (orange)

912-914 must hold for both counts.

Looking for the top...

Well, we actually got our higher high today. Thus I labeled it as a wave iii or (iii). Tomorrow the market should decline to about 930 before going higher to complete either the first wave of wave [v] or the whole wave [v].

The area at 912-914 must hold for these two counts. If we break below it, the rally is likely over.





btw: The Dow still has NOT broken its 200DMA

orange!

As I don't have much time I do an update without charts.


The market broke all the upper resistances around 930 including the SMA 200.

I labeled the high today as a wave (iii) although we might see another high early tomorrow. Afterwards the market should pullback in a wave (iv) to test the breakout level at 930. The following wave (v) should end around 950-960.

That would be the earliest point where the market can make an intermediate top. If wave [v] is extended then that was only wave (i) of [v].

Thus for now it's just wild guess.



By the way, the Dow did NOT surpass the SMA 200. Today's high was right at the SMA 200. So my 200 SMA chart from the weekend update is still correct in the Dow ; )