Friday, July 29, 2011

S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update 2 ~ 29 July 2011

What a day! Gap close!

Above 1301 the next resistances are 1304ish and then 1316-20.

S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update 1 ~ 29 July 2011

We're getting a big bounce from the support at 1285. I'd love to see a gap close not sure if we get though:

1296 might be some resistance. If we break it we should see a gap close. Support levels are still at 1280 and 1285.

S&P 500 ~ Update ~ 29 July 2011

We got a nice bounce from the 1306 area yesterday and then sold off again into the close.

The SPX is going to gap down today below the medium-term support around 1295. (I usually use a daily close to determine whether it's broken or not, so let's see where we close today).

Short-term there is support at 1280 and 1285 and resistance at 1301 (gap).

Thursday, July 28, 2011

S&P 500 ~ Update ~ 28 July 2011

In my previous post I mentioned 1296ish being a strong support. Let me show you that in a chart:

Since the beginning of this year the SPX has been trading in about a 100-handle-range between 1260 and 1360 (most of the time the range was even smaller (1295-1345)).

So there you have the important medium-term support and resistance levels: 1260, 1295 and 1345 (and probably ~1360-70).

Wednesday, July 27, 2011

S&P 500 ~ EOD Update ~ 27 July 2011

What a day! The SPX declined more than 2 %!

The market already opened below the support at 1325 and then sold off all day until the gap at 1305 was closed:

Support areas are at 1305 and at 1296 (strong support!). Resistances are at 1312, 1320 and 1330-32.

Let's see if we get action again tomorrow (usually after a big down day the following day is sideways but the debt deal is still pending so we'll see ; )).

S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update 1 ~ 27 July 2011

The SPX opened below both support areas (1325/1330) so I added the next support areas in the chart below (1315-20/1305):

Tuesday, July 26, 2011

S&P 500 ~ EOD Update ~ 26 July 2011

I actually thought that a break of 1336 would lead to a bigger rally than only to 1339. Nevertheless we still got a nice 9-handle-bounce from the support area around 1330:

Support remains at 1330-31 and 1325-26 and resistance at 1345-47.

According to the fractal the market should rally into early August starting today/tomorrow. But we'll see tomorrow what the market has in mind. ; )

S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update 1 ~ 26 July 2011

The SPX hit the 1330ish support area again today and as yesterday the market started to rally:

If we can break 1332ish (ES (~1336 SPX)) I think we could see a rally back to 1345ish.

USD/CHF ~ Update ~ 26 July 2011

And there we are: USD/CHF below 0.80:

After a short-lived bounce up to the resistance around 0.83 the USD/CHF declined again and hit 0.7997 a few minutes ago.

As long as we remain in the channel the medium-term trend is down. Resistances are at 0.83ish and 0.855ish.

Monday, July 25, 2011

S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update 1 ~ 25 July 2011

The SPX gapped down and hit the 1330ish support area early in the morning. Since then we've seen quite a huge bounce and might even see a gap close:

EUR/CHF ~ Update ~ 25 July 2011

The EUR/CHF rallied to the resistance around 1.18 and then started to decline again:

Resistances remain at 1.18ish and 1.24ish. Support is at the recent low at 1.14ish.

Friday, July 22, 2011

S&P 500 ~ Fractal ~ 22 July 2011

Earlier this month I recieved a very interesting chart from Miguel (thanks for the charts ; )).

He wrote that March/early April and June/early July were very similar and that we might see a bottom mid July and then a rally into early August.

That's an updated chart I got yesterday:

As you can see the fractal has been spot-on! If the fractals continue to correlate we should see a small pullback today/Monday and then another surge till early August. Let's see if it continues to work. ; )

Thursday, July 21, 2011

S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 21 July 2011

Once 1344 was reached the SPX pulled back a bit and then went sideways for the rest of the day.

Next resistances are at 1353-56 and 1370, support is at 1330ish:

1330 is breached so I think wave 3 up is underway. A possible target for this up wave is around 1450. We'll see if we get there. ; )

USD/JPY ~ Update ~ 21 July 2011

The USD/JPY has been in a downtrend since 2007:

As long as the blue trendline isn't breached the long-term trend is down.

Short-term strong resistance is around 79.6-80.0 and support at 78.5 (about to be broken though) and 77:

S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update 1 ~ 21 July 2011

lol, the market is going nuts.

We're already near the gap at 1344. Let's see if this can stop us or if we'll even see 1350+ today.

S&P 500 ~ Pre-Market Warm-Up ~ 21 July 2011

The comment section should work again (Accidentally I removed it yesterday, sorry).

Some nice action overnight: the markets were lower, then higher, then lower and now higher again.

Once 1335 is breached the SPX should head for 1344 and the mid 1350's. Supports are at 1325 and 1315-20.

Wednesday, July 20, 2011

Some changes

I've just done some changes to my blog and I hope everyone can still read it ; )

There's now a navigation bar at the top so I think it's now easier for you to find the posts you're interested in.

The subscription links are now in the right sidebar (E-Mail, RSS-Feed and Google).


I try to answer within two business days. (If you haven't reveived an answer after two days, please resend your email, thank you.)


S&P 500 ~ EOD Update ~ 20 July 2011

The SPX hit the 1330-35 resistance area early in the morning and then pulled back:

Not sure if this was enough of a correction to rally on. I guess we'll find out tomorrow.

Support at 1315-20 and 1295-1300, resistance at 1330-35 and 1344.

fyi: I'm doing some changes to my blog. So if something looks weird it's not your fault.. ; ) Let's hope I don't screw thing up... : )

Silver ~ Update ~ 20 July 2011

I haven't posted an update on silver for quite a long time since it's been moving between 34 and 38 $ for about two months:

We're finally getting some action again though as silver broke out of the channel. As long as the support around 38-39 $ holds the trend is up. Possible targets are 45 and 49-50 $.

Tuesday, July 19, 2011

S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update 2 ~ 19 July 2011

The market is in rally mode and already approaching the 1330-35 resistance area:

Just wanted to remind you that Apple reports after the close today. So, we might see some fireworks ; )

S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update 1 ~ 19 July 2011

My primary target for this second wave was hit yesterday (1295-1300) and since then we've seen a huge rally back to 1320 so I think that the next leg up is underway.

The next resistance level is at 1330-35. A break above it would support my scenario that the next leg up has started.

EUR/CHF ~ Update ~ 19 July 2011

As said last week sell the rips and don't buy the dips ; )

Resistances are at 1.18ish and at 1.24ish.

Monday, July 18, 2011

S&P 500 ~ EOD Update ~ 18 July 2011

We got a nice bounce from the 1295-1300 support area and are now back near the 1307-08ish resistance area again:

Gold ~ Update ~ 18 July 2011

I think the chart speaks for itself. Gold remains in an uptrend as long as the trendline holds.

S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update 2 ~ 18 July 2011

The SPX broke below 1308ish and hit the ~1295-1300 support area a few minutes ago:

Let's see if we get a bounce.

S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update 1 ~ 18 July 2011

The SPX is still trading between ~1308 and ~1315:

If we break lower the next target is 1300ish and if higher we could see a rally to 1330ish.

Friday, July 15, 2011

S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update 1 ~ 15 July 2011

As said yesterday, as long as the ~1315 resistance holds we might still see 1295-1300:

Thursday, July 14, 2011

S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update 1 ~ 14 July 2011

The SPX just bounced off of the gap area at 1307. I hope you could make some money : )

Short-term resistance is now at 1315. If we stay below it we might still see ~1295-1300 within the next few days.

Wednesday, July 13, 2011

S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 13 July 2011

With Ben's help the market tried to bounce twice (yesterday and today) but both times the rally was short-lived:

Next downside targets are the gap at 1307 and then the major target around the 1295-1300 level.

I added an alternative count (big triangle since Feb 11) but actually there isn't really any difference between the two counts. The preferred target for wave 2/E is 1300ish. After that we should see a rally to new highs. 1260 must hold else we could quickly sell off to 1220-30.

USD/CHF ~ Update ~ 13 July 2011

Just like the EUR/CHF the USD/CHF knows only one direction: down.

I wouldn't be surprised to see 0.80 within a few days...

Resistances are at 0.83 and 0.855. As long as we stay below these levels the medium-term trend is down.

EUR/USD ~ Update ~ 13 July 2011

The EUR/USD broke out of the triangle on Monday and then sold off down to almost 1.38. Since then, it has bounced back to 1.41ish which is now resistance:

I mentioned earlier that we could go as low as 1.34-35. Looking at the chart though there are some bullish signs as the uptrend line which held and the candle yesterday so I hope you took some profits if you were short. ; )

The important level now is 1.41ish. As long as we stay below it the bears are still in control and we could eventually see 1.34-35.

Monday, July 11, 2011

S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update 1 ~ 11 July 2011

The SPX rallied quite a lot during my vacation. In fact, I went on vacation at the low and returned at the high.. : )

The market has retraced about 38 % so we could see a bounce now. If the 1317-20 area doesn't hold though then we might see the 1296-1300 area again.

EUR/CHF ~ Update ~ 11 July 2011

The EUR/CHF broke the short-term downward channel late June and then rallied almost up to the medium-term resistance at 1.24. Since then it has sold-off again and hit a new low today at 1.1750.

There's actually no support below 1.18 since we're at all-time lows. The blue channel line may be some sort of suppport. As I've been saying for months now though I'd rather sell the rips than buy the dips.

Medium-term resistances are at 1.24ish and 1.27ish. As long as we stay below these levels the medium-term trend is down.

Short-term resistances are at 1.18 (if we don't rally back above it within the next few minutes) and at 1.20ish.

Friday, July 8, 2011

EUR/USD ~ Update ~ 8 July 2011

The EUR/USD is still in a triangle and as said earlier a break higher should lead to a rally to 1.50-51 and a break  lower to 1.34-35.

Let's see which way it breaks:

Thursday, July 7, 2011

I'm back

I just arrived home.

It's midnight in Europe so I'll answer all emails and post and update tomorrow morning ; )