Friday, April 27, 2012

USD/JPY ~ Update ~ 27 April 2012

The USD/JPY has been trending down since mid March. It looks like we'll hit the lower trendline again.

The medium-term trend remains bearish as long as we stay below 81.8ish.

S&P 500 ~ Pre-Market Warm-Up ~ 27 April 2012

Yesterday around noon the SPX broke the resistance at 1392-93 and then rallied another 10 handles and closed at 1400. Although the SPX didn't close above 1400 I clearly prefer the bullish count now (bearish count in this post). If we don't get a convincing break of 1385 I expect new highs soon.

Wednesday, April 25, 2012

Silver ~ Update ~ 25 April 2012

After many bounces from the support at 31ish silver finally managed to break it on Monday and sold off to the next support at 30 $.

S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 25 April 2012

The 1390-1400 area is very important in my opinion. If it holds we could see a move back to 1360ish again. If we break above it then wave 5 to new highs is most likely underway.

S&P 500 ~ Support & Resistance ~ 25 April 2012

The SPX opened higher today and is approaching the strong resistance area around the 1390 level. As said a few times already, if we get a convincing break above it then I think the correction is over.

Monday, April 23, 2012

S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 23 April 2012

Tuesday, April 17, 2012

S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 17 April 2012

It looks like I was a bit too early when I marked 1388 as the wave [x] top. The SPX hit 1393 today so wave [x] is still underway. Despite the new high not much has changed. I still think the 1390-1400 area is very important. As long as we stay below it, the trend is down and wave [y] should follow.

S&P 500 ~ Support & Resistance ~ 17 April 2012

Thursday, April 12, 2012

S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 12 April 2012

S&P 500 ~ EOD Update ~ 12 April 2012

Another rally today and we're back at the 1390ish level. Below I compared the current correction to the one in March:

There are some nice similarities but there is strong resistance between 1390 and 1400. Let's see if we can break it and rally back to the highs or if it's only a backtest.

S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update 2 ~ 12 April 2012

There we go! : )

S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update 1 ~ 12 April 2012

After yesterday's big gap up the SPX has formed a bull flag. If we break above it we could see a rally to 1380ish.

Wednesday, April 11, 2012

Gold ~ Update ~ 11 April 2012

EUR/USD ~ Update ~ 11 April 2012

After the break of 1.33 the EUR/USD quickly sold off to the support at 1.30ish which is also the neckline of a potential H&S. If 1.30 is breached I expect a decline to 1.26-27.

S&P 500 ~ Support & Resistance ~ 11 April 2012

Short review of yesterday
Except for a 5 handle bounce from the support level at 1378 right after the support levels didn't provide any support yesterday.

Levels for today:

S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 11 April 2012

We got another huge sell-off yesterday and are now already in the middle of my target for this fourth wave. As mentioned about a week ago, a break of 1390 would confirm that 1420 was the top of wave 3.

Wave 4 should end anywhere between here and 1340. This doesn't mean that the SPX can't fall further though!

As you can see in the chart (orange circles) medium-term lows are often followed by a huge rally the day after. You could go back further and look at the lows in 2010/11. It's almost always the same pattern. So I hope we'll get the same pattern again this time.

Tuesday, April 10, 2012

Silver ~ Update ~ 10 April 2012

The neckline of the potential inverse H&S I posted in my previous update was never breached so the trend is still neutral-bearish. I still think that a break of 33ish was very bullish but it probably won't happen for a few more months.

The reason I say this is because of seasonality which is very poor for silver from March till June:

S&P 500 ~ Support & Resistance ~ 10 April 2012

Monday, April 9, 2012

S&P 500 ~ EOD Update ~ 9 April 2012

The SPX hit the support area just below 1380 in the morning and then rallied for most of the day. I hope you weren't scared of the big gap down and took the long at 1378.

S&P 500 ~ Support & Resistance ~ 9 April 2012

The SPX didn't like the jobs numbers on Friday and will open lower today around 1380.

The 1370-80 area should be a strong support area. Thus a bounce there is very likely. Resistance is now around 1390-95 so any bounce will most likely be stopped in this area.

Wednesday, April 4, 2012

S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update 2 ~ 4 April 2012

Possible double bottom at 1394. If we get above 1399 we might see a rally to 1405:

EUR/USD ~ Update ~ 4 April 2012

The support level at 1.33 was breached yesterday and the EUR/USD immediately sold off to 1.31:

S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update ~ 4 April 2012

The SPX is approaching the strong support at 1390ish. Let's see if it holds:

Maybe you've noticed it too: The past three weeks the pattern has always been the same:

- Rally on Monday
- Top late Monday/early Tuesday
- Sell-off Tuesday through Thursday
- Bottom on Thursday/early Friday
- Rally into the weekend

Since tomorrow is Thursday and we're near support we could see a bottom tomorrow and then an Easter rally.

Tuesday, April 3, 2012

S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 3 April 2012

The waves since mid March are very difficult to count. It could either be an ending diagonal to complete blue wave 3 or a sideways correction before the SPX takes off again.

If it's an ending diagonal 1422 should have been the top and a correction to below 1390 should follow next (confirmation = break below 1390).

If I look at the Dow Jones and the Nasdaq the action since mid March looks more like a sideways correction though. So once the orange trendline is convincingly broken we could see another big move higher:

If we get this break above 1425ish the important support level for the medium-term trend moves from 1390ish up to today's low at 1405.

Monday, April 2, 2012

Silver ~ Update ~ 2 April 2012

Silver tried a few more times to break the resistance at 33ish but has failed so far:

A nice inverse H&S is forming in the hourly chart. If we can break the neckline we could see a rally to the next resistance at 34.5ish:

S&P 500 ~ EOD Update ~ 2 April 2012

The SPX hit a new bull market high at 1422 today:

1390 remains the important level. The trend is up as long as the SPX trades above it.

coming soon

Elliott Wave Tutorial

about 95 % completed => finished this Wednesday or Thursday ; )