Tuesday, July 31, 2012

S&P 500 ~ EOD Update ~ 31 July 2012

The market reached the 1390 resistance area late Friday/early Monday. Since then the SPX has been declining:

If we zoom in, we can see that the correction thus far looks rather corrective than motive. Thus, if the SPX can breach the upper trendline, we should see another rally into the 1390 area.

Sunday, July 29, 2012

EUR/USD ~ Update ~ 29 July 2012

No change for the EUR/USD: As long as we stay below 1.24ish, the medium-term trend is down and we should eventually see 1.19.

If 1.24 is breached though, a rally to 1.27ish should follow.

Silver ~ Update ~ 29 July 2012

Silver is still above the critical support area:

A decline below it would be bearish medium-/long-term. On the other hand, a rally above the declining trendline (currently around 32) would be very bullish long-term.

Friday, July 27, 2012

S&P 500 ~ EOD Update ~ 27 July 2012

Another huge rally today. We're back at the upper trendline and near my target at 1390ish.

If the market continues its behavior of the last few weeks, we should form a top around this level and then decline back to the lower trendline again. But we'll see what happens next week.

Have a very nice weekend!

S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update ~ 27 July 2012

The SPX opened above 1365. As said yesteday, a break above it, should lead to a new high above 1380. We're currently at 1375, so we're only a few points away. My preferred target is the 1390 area:

Thursday, July 26, 2012

Gold ~ Update ~ 26 July 2012

Gold has been trading between 1550ish and 1630ish for about three months now - and is still trading in this range! As said earlier, a break of one of this levels should lead to a big move:

USD/JPY ~ Update ~ 26 July 2012

The USD/JPY obeyed my levels pretty nicely:

We're now trading around the strong support at 78ish. If we get a convincing break below it, we could get a sell-off to 76ish.

S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update ~ 26 July 2012

I left at 1355 and I returned at 1355 - so I guess not much happened? : )

Updated count below. We could be in wave 3/(C) now. But as before, I'd like to see a break of 1310ish first.

At the moment we keep making higher highs and higher lows, so the medium-term trend is still up.

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Sunday, July 15, 2012

On Vacation ~ Until July 25th

I'm on vacation until July 25th. So I won't be able to post updates until then.

I did post a few updates this weekend though:


Good trades! And see you soon! ; )

S&P 500 ~ Update ~ 15 July 2012

I'm on vacation until July 25th. So unfortunately these will be the last charts until then.

The rally on Friday was quite strong and we're already in the middle of the target area for wave [ii] (1347-1365). Once this wave is completed, we should decline again and eventually drop below this year's low.

Should this rally be stronger than expected and breach 1365ish, we might still be in wave 2/(B) (target 1390ish):

Gold ~ Update ~ 15 July 2012

No news for gold - we're still between 1550ish and 1630ish. A break of one of these levels should lead to big move.

USD/JPY ~ Update ~ 15 July 2012

The USD/JPY breached the rising trendline but so far the support at 79.10-20 still holds:

As said earlier, if this level is broken we should see a decline to the lows at 78ish again.

EUR/USD ~ Update ~ 15 July 2012

The EUR/USD hit the first target (1.215ish) on Friday and then rallied:

As long as the EUR/USD stays below 1.24, I think we'll eventually see 1.19.

Friday, July 13, 2012

S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update ~ 13 July 2012

As mentioned in my last post, a break of 1335ish should lead to higher prices.

Thursday, July 12, 2012

S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update 2 ~ 12 July 2012

Back at 1335ish. As said before, the reaction at this level should help to determine which short-term count is underway:

Dow Jones ~ Intraday Update ~ 12 July 2012

A slightly different short-term count for the Dow:

This count also works for the SPX by the way. I'm not quite sure yet which one I prefer.

If we get a rally above Dow 12550/SPX 1335, the count above should be the correct one. And if we get above the aforementioned level, wave [i] should be over. As long as we stay below it, I'd just use the Dow 12400-50/ SPX 1310ish as the next target level.

S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update ~ 12 July 2012

The SPX opened below the strong support (1335ish). 1310ish should be the next target:

Wednesday, July 11, 2012

S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update 2 ~ 11 July 2012

The SPX is pressuring the 1335ish level again:

The level isn't breached yet though. But if it does, we should sell-off to 1310ish.

The Nasdaq is at the same trendline:

Only the Dow is already below it:

Let's see how the markets react over the next few hours/days.

S&P 500 ~ Pre-Market Warm-Up ~ 11 July 2012

The SPX hit the support area at 1334-37.5 yesterday:

I still think that 1335ish is an important level - it was strong support/resistance in May and June and the lower trendline of the rising wedge is also crossing 1335ish now. If this level breaks, the next target should be 1310-15ish. Should the SPX manage to rally above yesterday's high though, a rally to the upper trendline of the wedge should follow.

Monday, July 9, 2012

S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update ~ 9 July 2012

We're trading at the support at 1347/48 again today:

If 1347/48 breaks, I don't see any support until 1334-38. So this would be the next target. Resistances are at 1356 and around 1365.

Sunday, July 8, 2012

EUR/USD ~ Update ~ 8 July 2012

The EUR/USD looks far more bearish than the SPX - we're already below the late May low!

The next target seems to be 1.215ish. But most likely we'll decline to 1.19 which is the 2010 low.

USD/JPY ~ Update ~ 8 July 2012

Friday, July 6, 2012

S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 6 July 2012

Below is an updated count:

Actually, I was about to turn bullish when the market closed at 1374 on Tuesday. However, we didn't get a follow through the day after, so the bearish count was and still is in play.

The support and resistance levels worked very well today: Early in the morning as already posted intraday but also late in the day when the SPX rallied to 1355 by the end of the day after hitting the support at 1348 about 90 minutes before the close.

I'll post some more charts over the weekend ; )

S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update ~ 6 July 2012

The correction continues today:

1355ish is breached so the next targets are 1347-48 and then 1335ish.

I'll have more charts (also about the wave count) later today.

As you can see in above chart, the 1355-56 level worked rather well today.

Thursday, July 5, 2012

S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update ~ 5 July 2012

The SPX declined from the resistance at 1375 to the support at 1365ish:

Currently we're trading right in the middle of these two levels. If 1365ish breaks, the next levels for this correction are 1355 and 1348. If 1375 breaks on the other hand, a rally to 1390 should follow.

S&P 500 ~ Pre-Market Warm-Up ~ 5 July 2012

The futures are already freaking out before various numbers come out, that is EU interest rates, ADP employment change, unemployment claims, and ISM PMI. So we could get an interesting day.

Supports and resistances:

Tuesday, July 3, 2012

S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update ~ 3 July 2012

No double top at 1366 - the rally continues today. A few minutes ago, the SPX hit the next resistance at 1375. The markets will close in about an hour so this is most likely as high as we go today.

Monday, July 2, 2012

S&P 500 ~ EOD Update ~ 2 July 2012

We got about a 10 handle correction today, which is decent, but atcually I was expecting a bit more. Well, 1366 still hasn't been breached, so we could form a double top at 1366 and then decline tomorrow again. But that's all speculation so let's wait and see where the market opens tomorrow.

S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update 2 ~ 2 July 2012

The pullback should be underway now:

S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update ~ 2 July 2012

As said on Friday, I think we could see a correction at the resistance between 1357-66. Possible targets for a pullback are 1347 and 1335:

As always, I'd like to see some kind of a reversal first (e.g. shooting star, etc.) before going short. Next resistances are at 1375 and then around 1390+/-5