Tuesday, April 30, 2013

S&P 500 ~ EOD ~ 30 April 2013

The SPX closed at new all-time highs:

Unfortunately, the decline yesterday/today was smaller than I expected. We're now back at the resistance at 1597. Let's see if it holds once again tomorrow

S&P 500 ~ Intraday ~ 30 April 2013

The decline from 1597 continues today:

As mentioned yesterday, a likely target for a pullback is 1576ish.

Sunday, April 28, 2013

S&P 500 ~ Fractal ~ 28 April 2013

I've shown you this fractal already many times. Although the market hit new highs in April I still think it looks pretty good (also compare the dates (shifted almost exactly by one year)!):

S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 28 April 2013

Last week we got another big rally after the support at 1540ish was touched. Once again, we saw the importance of using key support and resistance levels together with the Elliott wave theory.

If you've followed my blog for some time now, you know that I want so see a convincing break of predefined key support or resistance levels first, before I turn bullish or bearish.

1540ish is such a level. It was never breached last week and thus I never turned bearish despite the Elliott wave count looking very promising for the bears.

Elliott wave count:

After a quick decline to 1540 we're back near the highs. Nevertheless, I still think that upside should be limited:

(previous count)

Friday, April 26, 2013

S&P 500 ~ EOD ~ 26 April 2013

The SPX pulled back today and almost hit the support at 1572-76:

As you can see, the two rallies in April look very similar (blue circles). I think also the two declines (big orange circles) look pretty similar. So, if this pattern continues next week and we break below 1572, bears should have the upper hand.

Thursday, April 25, 2013

AT&T ~ 25 April 2013

Potential double top for AT&T:

We should see a decline back to 33 if we stay below 39.

Ebay ~ 25 April 2013

Potential double top for Ebay:

Alcoa ~ 25 April 2013

S&P 500 ~ Intraday 2 ~ 25 April 2013

Once again the support at 1540ish provided an excellent buying opportunity:

Admittedly, I didn't expect the market to rally past 1576. But the market decided otherwise and we're back near the all-time highs. If the SPX doesn't break the highs, I think we could see a correction to 1572-76.

S&P 500 ~ Intraday ~ 25 April 2013

The gap at 1589 is closed:

S&P 500 ~ Pre-Market ~ 25 April 2013

The futures rallied overnight and closed the open gap at 1582 (gap at 1589 for the SPX):

As long as we stay above 1571, the short-term trend is still up.

Tuesday, April 23, 2013

USD/CHF ~ 23 April 2013

The rally in the USD/CHF is even bigger than I expected, we're already near the declining trend line:

After we hit it, I think a decline back to 0.94ish should follow.

AUD/USD ~ 23 April 2013

The AUD/USD developed very nicely. We're now just a few pips away from my target at 1.015-1.02:

If we get a reversal around these levels, the first target for a rally would be 1.035ish.

S&P 500 ~ Intraday ~ 23 April 2013

Target hit:

S&P 500 ~ Pre-Market ~ 23 April 2013

The rally continued overnight and we're already near my next objective at SPX 1572-76 (= ES 1567-71).

Monday, April 22, 2013

Dow Jones ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 22 April 2013

Updated version of the Dow Jones count:

(previous count)

If 14400ish is broken, we should get a nice move lower.

S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 22 April 2013

The potential bearish count still looks pretty good:

(previous count)

We need to stay below 1576ish though. If we rally above it, I think this count is very unlikely and a rally back to the all-time highs should follow. 

S&P 500 ~ Intraday ~ 22 April 2013

We've already seen a rally of almost 1 % since the break of 1553ish. As said before, I think we could see 1573-76:

S&P 500 ~ Pre-Market ~ 22 April 2013

The SPX spent almost the entire Friday around the resistance at 1553ish:

If this level breaks today, a rally to 1573-76 is likely. Should it hold though, we could get a pullback to 1540ish once again.

Friday, April 19, 2013

S&P 500 ~ Intraday ~ 19 April 2013

As I assumed, the market is rallying today. 1553ish should be the first target:

Thursday, April 18, 2013

S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 18 April 2013

Actually I was hoping for a bit more downside after the SPX broke out of the triangle but I think 7 handles is still better than nothing.

The support at 1538-41 held once again today, thus I'm still not medium-term bearish. Nevertheless I'd like to show you a potential bearish count:

S&P 500 ~ Intraday 2 ~ 18 April 2013

The SPX breaks out of an intraday triangle:

There is strong support at 1538-41 though. But if it breaks, we should see 1530ish quickly.

S&P 500 ~ Intraday ~ 18 April 2013

Target hit:

The first target for a short-term rally is 1553. If we break it, we could even see an attempt to close the gap at 1574.

If we break 1540, the medium-term trend is down and I think we could see prices below 1500 soon.

S&P 500 ~ Pre-Market ~ 18 April 2013

Wednesday, April 17, 2013

Copper ~ 17 April 2013

Copper continues its sell-off after it broke out of the triangle in late February:

The next objective should be 3ish.

S&P 500 ~ Intraday ~ 17 April 2013

We're getting a nice sell-off this morning after we hit the resistance at 1573-76 yesterday:

It will be interesting to see how the market reacts at 1552. If it breaks, 1540 should be the next target.

USD/CHF ~ 17 April 2013

The USD/CHF hit my target yesterday:

If yesterday's lows hold, we could see a bounce to 0.94ish. Should they break though, a sell-off to below 0.91 should follow.

ES ~ Pre-Market ~ 17 April 2013

The ES pulled back nicely from 1571:

It looks like we'll get another huge gap today. Thus, we have now open gaps at 1543 and 1568 (SPX 1552 and 1575). If yesterday's lows break (ES 1554), I think we'll close the gap at 1543. If it holds though, we could see a rally to the resistance at 1570ish (SPX 1573-76) again.

Tuesday, April 16, 2013

S&P 500 ~ EOD ~ 16 April 2013

Target hit:

It will be interesting to see if this develops similar to early April when the SPX rallied quickly back to the highs after the sell-off to 1540.

If the SPX breaks 1576 tomorrow, this could actually happen again.

EUR/USD ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 16 April 2013

The EUR/USD broke the resistance at 1.314ish. If we stay above this level, the next objective should be 1.33ish:

(previous count)

S&P 500 ~ Intraday 3 ~ 16 April 2013

The ES reversed at the support at 1555 and is now already at the (weak) resistance at 1563ish (SPX 1568). If broken, we should see ES 1371/SPX 1376 next.

S&P 500 ~ Intraday 2 ~ 16 April 2013

The short-term trend should be up as long as the ES is above 1555 (~SPX 1560). If this level holds, a rally to 1571 looks likely (SPX 1576).

Should 1555 give way though, the odds for a gap close are pretty good.

S&P 500 ~ Intraday ~ 16 April 2013

The SPX gaps up:

Resistances should be at 1568 and then at 1573-76.

Monday, April 15, 2013

Dow Jones ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 15 April 2013

Potential Elliott wave count:

(long-term count)

Like two weeks ago, I'd like to see a convincing break below 14400 before turning bearish. If we get a break, a medium-term correction should be underway.

AUD/USD ~ 15 April 2013

The AUD/USD is looking great. We already declined three cents from the resistance at 1.06ish:

If we stay below 1.036ish, we should see 1.02ish next.

Silver ~ 15 April 2013

Silver cracked the strong support at 26ish and is already at 22 $!

Next supports are at 21.5 and at 19-20.

Gold ~ 15 April 2013

The sell off in gold is pretty impressive. Just two days after breaking the important support level at 1550ish, we're already 200 $ lower:

1250ish should be the next objective.

S&P 500 ~ EOD ~ 15 April 2013

Wow! Quite some action today.

Let's start with the SPX. 1573-76 was breached around noon which resulted in a plunge to 1553. It looks like we could see 1540 tomorrow: