Sunday, March 28, 2010

Elliott Wave Count Week 12 2010

As expected last weekend the Dollar started wave 5 up:

It already hit a new high and we can clearly see five waves up from the low in November 2009.

The question now is how far this fifth wave goes. There are two possible scenarios:

-In my preferred scenario the motive wave is nearly finished and should be completed in less than two weeks. Afterwards the Dollar should correct for two months or so to form wave (2).

-The alternative scenario has an extended fifth wave which shoudn't be completed until May.

Since the Dollar tends to do the opposite of what the SPX does we have the following scenarios for the SPX:

-The Dollar tops early April, thus the market bottoms. This aligns with my cycle low/high I have early April. After that the SPX should rally to new highs (1220-30?).

-The Dollar keeps rallying and the market sells off. This is the less likely scenario.

Note: A week and a half till I'm back posting charts every day ; )

Have a nice week!

Monday, March 22, 2010

Elliott Wave Count Week 11 2010

SPX: As I mentioned last weekend I expected a high last week since one of my cycles was topping.

At the moment it looks like the market topped indeed last week. I have the next cycle low early April so I expect a sell off/correction for the next two weeks.

For the wave count there are too many possibilities to list them all... The expected correction should help us to identify the right count.

USD: The dollar seems to have finished wave 4 and should be in wave 5 now.

Thursday, March 18, 2010

Elliott Wave Count 18 March 2010

I recieved two short term counts today before the open. Since today nothing really happened they are still valid and I'd like to post them:

Note: He has a different count than I have. I'm expecting an impulse from the 1045 low while he counts an a-b-c. But hey, there is never only one possible count and I really like the squiggles in these two counts.

The cycle low/high (I posted it on Sunday) is due this week. After the big rally we had in the past weeks it is likely to be a high. The next cycle low/high is in early April, so, I expect a correction/sell off into end of March/early April followed by another rally into May.

Wednesday, March 17, 2010

SPX up 500 points

Today the SPX reached 1167 - a gain of 500 points in just one year!

The count remains unclear, it seems though that the bullish short term count I posted over the weekend with a ideal target of 1225ish is underway.

Sunday, March 14, 2010


A possible count for the Sensex. An alternative count for the rally from the lows is that Primary [1] has already finished and we're at the beginning of P[2] down (this is the more likely count should the US markets be in Primary [C] down).

Elliott Wave Count Week 10 2010


The headline of this week!

On Friday the SPX made a new high at 1153,41 which invalidated the bearish count I posted last weekend. However, I'm still not convinced that we are in a new bull market.

Originally I thought that this turning date could be a low (low of Intermediate (1)) but now it may turn out to be a high. In the past these dates were almost always either an important high or low so I think it's worth to look at it.

bullish count: This count looks great... as long as you don't look at the subwaves... or does anybody see a way to subdivide wave (3) into an impulse? Suggestions are welcome ; )

Wave (1) = Wave (3). I think that both were extended, thus wave (5) should be a bit shorter, possibly 0,62 times wave (3). In that area is also the 62 % retracement level, so I expect a top between 1220-30.

bearish count: I tried to find a new bearish count because I don't really like the bullish one... It is much easier to count the waves from 666 corrective than motive.

The count looks now as follows:

Since wave C should be a motive wave the short term count can be the same as in the bullish count or it can look as in the count below which also includes the turning date (which would be a high).

This week I recieved many bearish counts, in most of them we are somewhere in an ending diagonal. It's possible but I think it's too early to tell whether an ED is unfolding or not.

That's one example:

As you can see the market will either move up or down next week - yes I needed six charts to came to this conclusion : ))

I'll keep you updated during the week and I hope that the situation will be much clearer next weekend ; )

Have a nice week.

Sunday, March 7, 2010

Elliott Wave Count Week 9 2010

Another week for the bulls. They failed to make a new high though but it's possible that the usual Monday ramp up will create a new high.

This weekend, I concentrated on the bullish count and I have some interesting charts for you ; )

Bearish count: The bearish count is in trouble! If the market rallies above 1150 this count will be invalid! Still possible though that wave 3 will start soon.

Bullish count: The action from 1045 now looks like a motive wave. We're currently in the fifth wave that should end when it hits the upper trendline.

I still don't like this count (because of wave (3)) but the target for wave (5) may be the 62 % retracement level and the upper trendline.

How about that? ; )

New high in 2011, new low in 2012, crazy but we got the same structure 40 years ago.

Friday, March 5, 2010

Elliott Wave Count 4 March 2010

Here you see a possible bearish count for this rally since early February. It's also possible that this is a finished motive upwave though. In that case we should decline to 1100ish and then rally to new highs.