Saturday, December 24, 2011

Merry Christmas!

I hope you went long at the 1200ish support level and made yourself a Christmas present! : )

The SPX rallied to the resistance at 1256 on Thursday, went sideways for half a day, and then rallied to the strong resistance area at 1265-67 on Friday. We're up more than 60 handles since we hit the important medium-term support around 1200 earlier this week! ; )

I wish you a Merry Christmas!


Thursday, December 22, 2011

Silver ~ Update ~ 22 December 2011

Silver broke the level which was important for the uptrend to continue already mid November (33$). Since then it's been declining and hit 28 $ a few days ago:

Supports and resistances are shown in the chart above. The trend is down as long as silver doesn't break 31ish. If it rallies above 33$ the trend is up again.

Tuesday, December 20, 2011

S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update 1 ~ 20 December 2011

Worked like a charm! : )

The SPX hit the support at 1200ish yesterday and today we're up more than 30 handles!

Gold ~ Update ~ 20 December 2011

The medium-term uptrend was broken when gold fell below my support level at 1680. A sharp sell-off followed and a few days ago we almost hit the September lows again:

As you can see also the long-term uptrend is in danger as gold broke below the orange support line. I won't short gold though. Generally, I prefer to go long if we hit support levels/trendlines (with a stop a few bucks below it) and not to go short if we break it because very often you get a false break below the trendline (especially now since we have a strong support level at 1550ish so the risk/reward isn't that good).

Support levels are at ~1550 and 1430ish. Resistance is at 1670-80.

Monday, December 19, 2011

S&P 500 ~ EOD Update ~ 19 December 2011

Nothing has changed. The SPX hit the upper trendline again on Friday and sold off to the important support level around the 1200 level today:

As already said a few times last week the short-term trend is down as long as we stay in the channel.

Friday, December 16, 2011

S&P 500 ~ Pre-Market Warm-Up ~ 16 December 2011

The SPX rallied to the resistance at 1226 yesterday and closed the open gap. From there it sold off a bit and then traded between 1215 and 1220 for the rest of the day.

Not much has changed. The short-term trend is still down and important support is at 1200ish.

The downtrend channel looks even better on the ES:

Bears have the upper hand as long as we stay in this channel.

Wednesday, December 14, 2011

S&P 500 ~ EOD Update ~ 14 December 2011

The pullback continued today and the SPX has already retraced more than 50 % of the late November rally:

I labeled the 1200ish area as an important support area. If the market breaks below it the medium-term trend will be down. As long as it holds though I still think there could be one more rally late December/early 2012.

Tuesday, December 13, 2011

S&P 500 ~ EOD Update ~ 13 December 2011

We got a pretty decent bounce from the 1227ish level and hit 1250 in the morning. From there the market sold off and hit 1219 shortly before the close:

The market continues to trade within a downward channel since early December. The waves from 1265 look corrective though so a rally later this month seems likely. But as long as there is no convincing break above 1245ish the short-term trend is down.

Monday, December 12, 2011

S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update 1 ~ 12 December 2011

The SPX is down even more today than it was up on Friday.

We're below the 1233ish support level now and there isn't much support until 1200ish. The two support areas in between are only highly speculative as they were perfect areas for a potential inverse H&S:

Friday, December 9, 2011

S&P 500 ~ Pre-Market Warm-Up ~ 9 December 2011

We got a break out of the tight range yesterday: the SPX broke below 1245 and then sold off to 1232:

Supports/resistances and possible short-term counts are shown in the chart above.

There isn't a lot of support below 1233ish. 1215 or 1230 could be supports as these levels were perfect candidates for a potential right shoulder of a big inverse H&S. Many "if"s though.. so one step at a time. If we break below 1233ish I'll post a new chart with updated support levels.

Wednesday, December 7, 2011

S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 7 December 2011

And we hit the resistance at 1265ish once again:

So far, so good. There is our sideways consolidation early December and we may have already completed it today (as shown in the chart above). We've been trading in a narrow range since early this month though so I'd prefer a break out before going long (or short).

If we break above 1265ish the next target should be 1292ish.

Monday, December 5, 2011

S&P 500 ~ EOD Update ~ 5 December 2011

The SPX opened higher, rallied to the resistance area around 1265, which I mentioned as a possible target for wave [a]/[i], and then sold off:

Nothing has changed: I still think that we could see a (sideways?) correction early December. If 1265ish breaks though then we could go much higher.

ES ~ Pre-Market Warm-Up ~ 5 December 2011

The SPX opened higher on Friday and then sold off. So, as pointed out on Friday morning we may have completed five waves from the low at around 1160.

This morning though we're back near the Friday highs so we have to watch what happens after the open today. If we break above 1260/65 we might go much higher, else this could be just a retest of the recent highs followed by another sell-off to ~1240 (i.e. something similar to what happend in mid October). As said last week, we might see only a small correction followed by another move up into end of year (similar to October).

Friday, December 2, 2011

S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 1 December 2011

We got the expected fourth wave sideways consolidation yesterday. The SPX corrected to the support level at 1240 and then moved sideways for the rest of the day:

Wave (iv) is probably finished so we could see one more push higher. A possible target is the resistance around 1265. After that I think a bigger correction is due which should retrace a part of the most recent rally from 1159. If bulls get out of control and we get break above 1265ish next targets are 1275ish and 1292ish.

Wednesday, November 30, 2011

S&P 500 ~ EOD Update ~ 30 November 2011

The SPX closed almost unchanged for November. Who would have thought that three days ago?

After rallying 88 handles within three days (!) we might get some kind of a consolidation early December (probably after one new high as shown in the chart). As we saw in October these consolidations can be mostly sideways so be careful if you're short (which I hope you aren't ; ) (or at least not since yesterday ; ))).

Below you can see my medium-term count. It looks like we completed wave B last Friday and are now in wave C. Possible targets are the October high at around 1293 or even the yearly high at 1370ish:

S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update 1 ~ 30 November 2011

Wow! I hope you took my advice not to short seriously... : )

After all it looks like the a-b-c count was still the right one... I'll post more about the possible wave count today after the close.

Tuesday, November 29, 2011

S&P 500 ~ EOD Update ~ 29 November 2011

The bounce from the sub 1160 area continued today. We hit 1204 early in the morning and then pulled back a bit and tested yesterday's high around the 1195-97 area:

As mentioned yesterday I think the rally should stop between ~1195 and 1210. So, if you went long around 1160 you might want to cover a part of your position.

The move from 1160 looks quite strong though so I wouldn't just blindly short around these levels. There is a pretty nice inverse H&S with a target of about 1235-40 so as long as the neckline at 1195ish holds we could go (much) higher.

Trade what you see, not what you think. ; )

Monday, November 28, 2011

S&P 500 ~ EOD Update ~ 28 November 2011

As mentioned last week my target for wave [iii] was 1153-58 which we (almost) hit on Friday (1158.66). From there we got a huge bounce:

The market already hit my preferred target for this fourth wave today (1195ish). But if we break today's high we could even see 1210ish. As you can see I think that this bounce will be short-lived and probably only last a couple of days.

Resistances are at today's high, 1210ish, 1215ish, and around 1230. If the market moves above 1215 and especially above 1230 you might better cover your shorts as we still could see my much-anticipated eoy rally... However, as long as we stay below it, bears should be safe and can await the next push lower.

S&P 500 ~ Pre-Market Warm-Up ~ 28 November 2011

The ES hit the 1180ish area shortly after the open. A small pullback followed and when Europe opened we broke through 1180 and are now near 1190. If 1180ish holds we could see 1200 or even 1210:

Friday, November 25, 2011

Wednesday, November 23, 2011

ES ~ Intraday Update 2 ~ 23 November 2011

S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update 1 ~ 23 November 2011

After closing around 1190 again yesterday the SPX opened lower today and is now trading below 1170. Thus, I think the bearish count is now much more likely:

Based on the count and fibonacci wave [iii] might end soon. It looks like we're already in subwave (v) and the sub 1160ish area seems to be a good place for a bottom. At 1153 wave [iii] is 1.62*wave [i], at 1155 is an open gap and at 1158 is the 62 % retracement level.

Monday, November 21, 2011

S&P 500 ~ EOD Update ~ 21 November 2011

The SPX hit my target of 1190 today:

The market even dipped below it intraday but closed above it. As said many times already I think the 1190ish level is very crucial.

If we get a convincing break and close below this level (yesterday's low - 1190ish) I think wave (C) to below 1070 has started. As long as this level holds though the downtrend since late October could only be an abc correction (as shown in the chart above). So, the next days will be very interesting. ; )

Thursday, November 17, 2011

S&P 500 ~ EOD Update ~ 17 November 2011

The SPX broke the lower triangle support line at the open and then sold off around 27 handles to 1210 : )

As already mentioned a few times 1190ish is my critical medium-term support level. If we break below it wave (C) is most likely underway. As long as it holds though we could still see an end of year rally. So, the next few days will be very crucial.

Wednesday, November 16, 2011

S&P 500 ~ EOD Update ~ 16 November 2011

Still no decision:

We're still inside the triangle. A break to the downside should lead to the 1190ish area (there is some strong support between 1220 and 1230 though) and a break to the upside to the 1310ish area.

ES ~ Update ~ 16 November 2011

Tuesday, November 15, 2011

S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update 1 ~ 15 November 2011

Wave [e] probably ended at 1244:

If so, we should see a break above 1265-67. Once above it the SPX shouldn't trade below 1244 again (for the next few weeks).

Monday, November 14, 2011

S&P 500 ~ EOD Update ~ 14 November 2011

It looks like the SPX is forming a triangle:

Once we break out of the triangle we should get a big move. I tend to a breakout to the upside because triangles tend to be continuation patterns and, as said earlier, end of year is usually bullish. A break above last week's high should lead to a rally to 1310ish or maybe even higher back to the yearly highs.
A break below 1220-30 should lead to the next support level at 1190ish.

Wednesday, November 9, 2011

S&P 500 ~ EOD Update ~ 9 November 2011

Huge down day today! The SPX lost 3.67 %!

We're back at the support around 1220-30. If it breaks below it the next stop is 1190ish. As said earlier, as long as 1190ish holds this should be only a correction and we can expect a rally into year end.

Gold ~ Update ~ 9 November 2011

Gold hit 1800 yesterday and is now only about 100 $ below its all-time high:

Since November and December are usually strong months for gold a rally to the all-time high is very likely. Support levels are at 1750ish and 1680ish and the trend is up as long as these hold.

EUR/CHF ~ Update ~ 9 November 2011

As expected the EUR/CHF is oscillating between the 1.24ish and the 1.20ish area. After hitting 1.24 in mid October the EUR/CHF declined to 1.21 by late October and is now back at 1.24ish on some rumors that the SNB might increase the minimum rate to 1.25 or 1.30:

Unless this happens I think the EUR/CHF will continue to trade between 1.24ish and 1.20ish.

Monday, November 7, 2011

S&P 500 ~ EOD Update ~ 7 November 2011

As said last week as long as 1190ish doesn't break I don't trust this sell-off from 1290ish.

End of year is often bullish, thus, as long as we stay above 1190 we could see higher prices (wave C to 1310ish or so).

Support levels are at 1220-1230 (top of previous range) and 1190ish. Resistances are at 1260ish, 1285 and then at 1300-10.

Wednesday, November 2, 2011

Silver ~ Update ~ 2 November 2011

Silver broke the resistance at 33-34 late October and then rallied to 36:

As long as ~33 holds the trend is up.

Gold ~ Update ~ 2 November 2011

Gold broke the resistance around 1700 about one week ago and then rallied to 1750:

So far, we've already got a 200+$ rally from the blue support line and as long as the 1680ish level holds the trend is up.

Tuesday, November 1, 2011

S&P 500 ~ EOD Update ~ 1 November 2011

Ping Pong: The market opened at the lower end of the support zone at 1220 and bounced to 1233 from there. By noon the SPX closed the gap at 1215 and then rallied again to 1233. By the end of the day we were back near the lows and closed at 1218.

As mentioned earlier today wave (B) probably ended at 1293 last week and we're in wave 1 of (C) now. I'm not convinced yet because late October to December is usually bullish. So, this could be only a correction. I think 1190ish has to hold though for the bullish scenario. So, if we break below 1190ish wave (C) is very likely.

Support levels are at 1215-20 and 1190ish. Resistances areas are at 1230-34, 1253 and 1285.

S&P 500 ~ Pre-Market Warm-Up ~ 1 November 2011

The ES hit 1212.50 a few minutes ago losing almost 80 handles within less than three days!

Wave (B) (or [2]) probably ended at 1293. Wave 1 of (A) was around 110 points. If we assume the same length for wave 1 of (C) we get a target of ~1185 which is right at the 1190ish support area.

Support levels are at 1220/30 and 1190ish. Resistances are at 1253 (today's gap), 1285, and 1300ish.

Thursday, October 27, 2011

S&P 500 ~ EOD Update ~ 27 October 2011

The break of 1260 at the open cleared the way for a rally to the next resistance area at around 1300-10 - and we almost got there on the same day!

Supports are now at 1260ish and 1242. Next resistance is at around 1300-10. If the SPX gets above this area a rally back to the yearly highs is very likely.

Wednesday, October 26, 2011

S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update 1 ~ 26 October 2011

We got a very nice bounce from the support area at 1220. Up ~15 handles since 11 am! : )

Tuesday, October 25, 2011

S&P 500 ~ EOD Update ~ 25 October 2011

After hitting the strong resistance at 1260ish yesterday the SPX declined 2 % today:

Support areas are at 1230, 1215-1220 and 1190ish. Resistances are at 1260ish and just above 1300.

As you can see in the chart it looks like we're in wave C of (B). Likely targets are 1260ish (already hit) or 1300-10. If the SPX declines below 1190 wave (B) should be over and wave (C) should be underway.

Monday, October 24, 2011

S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update 1 ~ 24 October 2011

As mentioned many times a break of 1230ish should lead to a rally to the resistance around 1260. On Friday the SPX broke 1230 and today we're already at 1260ish!

Thursday, October 20, 2011

S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update 1 ~ 20 October 2011

So far, so good. We got a very nice correction from the resistance level at 1230:

We declined to below 1200 earlier today but unfortunately didn't quite get to the support area at 1190-95 so I actually missed my long entry by less than 2 handles.. : / But I hope you did better and were able to go long around noon ; ).

Wednesday, October 19, 2011

Silver ~ Update ~ 19 October 2011

Silver hasn't managed to break the resistance at 33-34 so far:

Support is at 26ish. Resistance areas are at 33-34, 37 and 39. As soon as 33-34 breaks we should resume the long-term uptrend.

Tuesday, October 18, 2011

Gold ~ Update ~ 19 October 2011

1700ish has proved to be a strong resistance so far:

Support is still at around 1550-70 and resistance at 1700ish. If we can break above it a rally back to the highs is likely.

S&P 500 ~ EOD Update ~ 18 October 2011

What a great day! The SPX hit the support area at 1190-95 in the morning and then rallied about 40 (!) handles to 1233 by late afternoon:

S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update ~ 18 Ocotber 2011

A very good day so far: The SPX hit the support area at 1190-95 shortly after the open and has rallied since then:

S&P 500 ~ Pre-Market Warm-Up ~ 18 October 2011

As already mentioned last week the last few days looks very similar to mid September:

Next support is around 1190-95 and if it breaks we should at least close the open gap at 1155 or even decline to 1120ish once again (like last month). Strong resistance is still at the top of the big range (~1120-1230) at 1220-30.

Friday, October 14, 2011

S&P 500 ~ Pre-Market Warm-Up ~ 14 October 2011

We got the expected correction yesterday and closed the open gap at 1195:

Overnight the market rallied and we're back near the resistance at 1220. A possibility is a double top similar to the one in mid September but let's see first what happens at the open.

Resistance areas are at 1220 and 1230. Supports are at yesterday's low, 1155, and 1120ish.