Thursday, March 31, 2011

S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 31 March 2011

Q1 2011 is over and the SPX has gained about 70 handles - at this rate we'll see new all time highs early next year.... : )

Tomorrow a new month begins and I'm sure you can remember that the first trading day of a month is usually quite entertaining - usually for the bulls. ; )

Today looked like a consolidation before the next move higher, so I think we'll break the resistance at 1332ish and then rally towards the yearly highs.

Resistance at 1332 and 1344 and support at 1319ish (gap area) and 1305-9

Wednesday, March 30, 2011

S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update ~ 30 March 2011

1320 breached - 1332 reached:

As you can see in the chart above resistance is at 1332ish and then at 1344 and support at 1320ish (gap area) and then between 1305-09.

Note sure if we can break 1332ish in the first attempt, a correction down into the 1300ish area would form a very nice right shoulder, wouldn't it? ; )

But let's see first what happens at 1332.

Tuesday, March 29, 2011

S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update 1 ~ 29 March 2011

Support and resistance areas are working very well these days, I hope this continues ; )

The SPX hit the support area between 1305 and 1308 this morning and has rallied from there. The situation today looks very simliar to the one of last week:

Thus, a break of 1320 seems to be very likely. Once above 1320 1330 should be the next short term objective.

Monday, March 28, 2011

S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 28 March 2011

As posted on Friday I expected 1320ish to be some sort of a resistance. The SPX has failed to breach this level twice and is approaching the 1308ish support again:

Support below 1308 is the 1300 area and then 1284ish. Resistance above 1320 is at 1330ish and 1344.

Still many Elliott Wave counts are possible:

If we get a convincing break of 1300ish a move to 1220ish is very likely in my opinion, a break of 1284 should confirm it, i.e. a blue wave Y or C would complete Intermediate wave (2) sometime late April or early May.

If we move above 1320 it's very likely that the wave (2) low is already in and that the next wave up towards 1500ish is already underway but only a move above 1344 confirms it as it could still be just a B wave.

So, there you have your levels: below 1300 = bearish (1284 next, 1220 very likely), above 1320 = bullish (1330, 1344 next, 1400+ very likely)

Friday, March 25, 2011

EUR/USD ~ Update ~ 25 March 2011

The EUR/USD almost reached my price target of around 1.43 earlier this week:

This is a very strong resistance area so I expect at least a small correction at this level. Support below is now at 1.40ish and then at 1.38ish. As long as 1.38ish holds I think it'll be only a pullback. If it breaks though, then we could go way lower (1.34, 1.30, ...).

As already mentioned in my last update above 1.43 my next target is 1.50ish.

S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update 1 ~ 25 March 2011

The SPX breached the resistance at 1305-08 late afternoon yesterday and gapped up again today. We've been rallying since the open and are about to fill the gap at 1320:

Updated support and restistance levels are shown in the chart.

I'll have more charts later (DXY & EUR/USD)

Thursday, March 24, 2011

S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update 1 ~ 24 March 2011

The SPX gapped up, retested the previous resistance around 1300 and then rallied higher.

We're now right at the 1308ish resistance and the 62 % retracement of the move from 1344 to 1249.

A break above should lead to a rally to the gap just below 1320 (higher targets are 1330 and 1344). Support is now at 1300 and 1284-89.

I'd like to repeat what I said yesterday: As long as we keep making higher highs and higher lows the short-term trend is up! Only a break below 1284 would change that.

Wednesday, March 23, 2011

S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 23 March 2011

The SPX gapped down into the support area between 1286 and 1289. From there it rallied and hit 1300 again late in the day.

Short-term the uptrend is intact. We've seen higher lows and higher highs so only a convincing break of 1284 would change the short-term trend.

If we break 1300 1305-08 should come next (above we got the gap at 1320, and some strong resistance at 1330 and then at 1345):

Although there are still many possible EW counts I still like the W-X-Y count. If the market doesn't rally above 1308ish wave Y down to 1220ish should follow next (confirmed once we get a convincing break of 1284).

Tuesday, March 22, 2011

S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update 1 ~ 22 March 2011

I just wanted to let you know that the markets are still open lol

Not much has been going on since we gapped up yesterday into the resistance area between 1295-1305.

Short-term I think we could see a backtest of the neckline of the inverted H&S at 1289ish. If we break that next targets are yesterday's gap and then 1260ish. Above we have 1300ish, a break should lead to 1308.

Edit: Because a user asked: the inverse H&S target is 1330ish, so right at the early March highs. As you can see in the chart above there is some strong resistance between 1305-08 so I'm not quite sure if we can break that but once above we should see 1330ish.

And 1289ish has to hold! Else the H&S is invalid!

Monday, March 21, 2011

S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update 1 ~ 21 March 2011

The SPX gapped up into the strong resistance area between 1295 and 1305. This is the area I expect to see a wave X top. Should the market rally through this level though, then a rally back to the highs is very likely in my opinion (either a B wave of a flat, or the start of wave (3) up to 1500+):

As you can see many Elliott wave possibilities right now so I suggest to focus on the important support and resistance areas which are 1220-1225, 1260, 1295-1305 and 1345.

Sunday, March 20, 2011

EUR/USD ~ Update ~ 20 March 2011

The EUR/USD bounced from the 1.38ish support area, hit the 1.40ish resistance several times again and eventually broke above it late last week.

As mentioned in my last update after 1.40ish the next objective is 1.43ish. We're already almost there and 1.43ish is a very strong resistance so I don't think that the Euro will go much higher. I.e. I expect 1.43ish to be at least an intermediate term top (I'll have some targets for the correction as soon as the top is confirmed).

If we do break the 1.43 resistance though 1.50 is my next target.

Friday, March 18, 2011

S&P 500 ~ Pre-Market Warm-Up ~ 18 March 2011

As mentioned earlier this week my preferred target for wave X (B) is in the 1295-1305 resistance area. The ES has rallied huge overnight, so, the SPX is going to open just below 1290 which is already very near my target area:

I had a look at Intermediate waves (2) and (4) of Primary [A] again and they both lasted less than one month. The current correction is already one month old so based on that it could be that the correction is over already.

As said above though, the market is entering the huge resistance area between 1295 and 1305 so unless we get a rally above this level I clearly prefer the X wave scenario i.e. a wave Y down to 1220ish should follow later this month/early April.

Thursday, March 17, 2011

S&P 500 ~ Pre-Market Warm-Up ~ 17 March 2011

The ES hit a new low at 1241.25 overnight and has rallied since then. We're trading at ES 1267 (SPX ~1272)  right now, up more than one percent, so it looks like the count I posted intraday yesterday is unfolding.

As long as the 1260 level holds on an hourly basis I continue to have a slightly bullish bias if it breaks though we should see a sell-off to 1220-25.

Wednesday, March 16, 2011

S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 16 March 2011

The SPX declined another 2 % today and closed at 1257. Looking at the ES, which just made a new low, it looks like the support in the SPX 1260 area won't hold.

Next target below is the 1220-25 area which is my preferred target for this Intermediate wave (2).

S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update 2 ~ 16 March 2011

Huge hammer forming/formed in 15/30/60 min chart. Looks like the low is in for today and may be also for wave A. Let's see if we can close above 1260.

S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update 1 ~ 16 March 2011

We've got the expected sell-off to 1260 today:

It's possible that wave A of (2) is about to end and that wave B will be unfolding very soon (target ~ 1295-1305). For this scenario the 1260 area has to hold by any means, should the market break this level we could see another wave down into the 1220-25 area.

Tuesday, March 15, 2011

S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 15 March 2011

As already written in my intraday update the SPX hit my second target area around 1260. We've got a huge bounce from that level and rallied all the way back to the previous support at 1290-5ish which is now resistance.

The big bounce from the lows today makes it very difficult to label the short-term waves (in pink). The potential fourth wave is quite big which is unusual - we've seen the same in May 2010 though, so, may be we're getting the same again.

So, I'd rather pay close attention to the support and resistance areas highlighted in the chart. Above we've got now strong resistance at 1295ish and 1305ish. Support below is the 1260 area and then the 1220-25 area.

As mentioned earlier today, I don't think this is the start of a new bear market (which I don't expect until 2012/13). If you're interested in my long-term outlook click here:

S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update 1 ~ 15 March 2011

The SPX hit the 1260ish area earlier today and is trying to rally now.

The second target (1260) for this correction was hit today. The short term wave count doesn't look completed to the downside though, so we may see another move towards 1260 later this week.

The next targets below are 1220/25 and then the weekly MA 76 (which will be around 1170-1200 in April-May).

At 1220-25 is the 38 % retracement, the April and the November high, so there is some strong support there. If it doesn't hold the weekly MA 76 should stop the correction. See below why I think the weekly MA 76 is important:

Chart posted in Jan 11

I'd like to repeat that I don't think this is a new bear market and 1340 the famous P2 top... At the moment I think this is only a correction and once it's over I expect a rally to new all time highs in late 2011/2012.

S&P 500 ~ Overnight Update ~ 15 March 2011

I hope you aren't caught long! The ES hit 1252 a few hours ago and is currently trading at 1267, still down almost 2 %.

Reposting the SPX levels: 1220-25, 1260 and 1275 (The future is already way below 1275, so it looks like 1260 or even 1220-25 is a very likely target for today/this week.)

Let's see how European markets react.

Monday, March 14, 2011

S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 14 March 2011

The SPX declined to 1286 intraday - recovered most of the losses till end of day though. So, there is still no daily close below 1295 which is needed for an intermediate term sell signal:

If we get a close below the 1295ish level the next targets are 1275, 1260 and 1220-25 (preferred target).

Support at 1295ish was breached today, regained by end of day though, so, I don't know what to make of this - strength or just another fake rally like on Friday?

Short-term resistance is at 1305ish and next support below today's low is the 1275 area.

Sunday, March 13, 2011

FAQ ~ Broker & Charting software

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Saturday, March 12, 2011

S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 12 March 2011

The support around 1295 held and the market rallied back into the resistance area around 1305:

Unlike motive waves corrective waves are always very difficult to count. I see two possibilities right now and on Monday we should know which one is underway. The first one is that wave A of (2) ended on Friday and wave B is unfolding now i.e. we should see some sideways movement between 1290 and 1305 (or up to 1320). The second one is very bearish short term. If we get a convincing break of Friday's low I think a third wave of [c] is underway which would take the market down into the 1260 area.

So, for Monday a bit wishy-washy - either strong down or sideways/slighlty up but medium term the level remains the same: 1295 - a close below this level is bearish and should lead to a decline to 1275/1260/1220-25.

Friday, March 11, 2011

S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 10 March 2011

The SPX rallied back up to the resistance area around 1305 and then sold off again to the late February low:

The low did hold and as long as it isn't broken the bulls can still win this fight imo. If you have a look at the November correction I'm sure you can see some similarities between the current and the November correction, so, please use stops if you're short ; )

Once 1295 is broken my next targets are 1275, 1260 and 1220-25.

Thursday, March 10, 2011

EUR/USD ~ Update ~ 10 March 2011

The EUR/USD didn't like the resistance line and sold off down to the support around 1.38:

If we break 1.38 I think we'll see 1.34, should we break the recent highs just above 1.40 though then I think we'll get a rally to 1.43ish.

S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update 1 ~ 10 March 2011

The ES breached the triangle support line at the open and immediately sold off another 10 handles down to the late February low:

So, we got the break of the triangle and now we need a convincing break of the late February low. If that happens next targets are 1275, 1260 and 1220-25.

We could see a bounce here in my opinion, probably up to the early March double bottom around 1305.

I'll have more charts later  (EUR/USD & DXY).

S&P 500 ~ Pre-Market Warm-Up 10 March 2011

The ES sold off overnight and is trading around the triangle support line again:

If we get a break and a decline below the late February lows we should see 1275ish.

I'll have more charts later today.

Wednesday, March 9, 2011

Update tomorrow morning in pre-market

I'm not at home tonight so the update will be delayed until tomorrow morning.

Sorry for that.

Tuesday, March 8, 2011

S&P 500 ~ Update ~ 8 March 2011

Basically the same situation as yesterday:

We're still inside the triangle and as already said a break should lead to a big move.

Monday, March 7, 2011

S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 7 March 2011

We got another sell off down into the 1300 support area and bounced there:

The SPX remains in a trading range between 1300ish and 1330 and at the moment I neither prefer a break lower nor higher just trading the range until it doesn't work anymore.

I posted a potential triangle in the ES yesterday and today it looks even nicer:

A break out of this pattern should lead to a very strong move (lower or higher, we'll see).

Sunday, March 6, 2011

S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 6 March 2011

We got lots of ups and downs last week, the net change for the week was a mere 1.27 points though.

The SPX is still inside the rising wedge (in arithmetic scale!):

As said before a break of the 1295-1300 area should lead to lower prices. Next supports are 1275ish, 1260ish and then the 1220-25 area. In case of a break higher next targets are the 1360ish area and then 1440ish.

There is a nice triangle unfolding in the ES:

So, let's see which way it breaks and trade according to it.

Have a nice week!

Thursday, March 3, 2011

S&P 500 ~ Update ~ 3 March 2011

The SPX rallied more than I thought today and is back at Tuesday's high at 1332. Tomorrow we'll get the employment numbers so I think it's wise to wait until that stuff is over.

I'd like to revise the level to go long I gave yesterday from 1332 to 1344. The short level remains at 1295-1300.

My name is Bond, US Bond.

See last US Bonds (/ZB) update here.

So far the rally from 116 has been very short, it's very common for a corrective wave to retrace into the territory of the previous fourth wave (which we did) though so the bounce from 116 to 120 may have topped already.

Thus a decline to the support line around 114 looks very likely now (stop above 120):

EUR/USD ~ Update ~ 3 March 2011

The EUR/USD gave a buy signal when it closed above 1.375 (see last update). Today, we hit the downtrendline around 1.40ish so the EUR/USD is now in line with the DXY ($Index) which is at an important support line.

So, it's make or break for the € and the $ now. If the resistance line doesn't stop the rally we'll see much higher prices - my next target is at 1.43ish.
I don't have a specific level to go short yet. I think if we decline below 1.37 again the top is in but I'd like to see a confirmation also in the SPX, so we have to watch both.

S&P 500 ~ Pre-Market Warm-Up ~ 3 March 2011

We've got the expected rally into the low 1320's already in pre-market (the ES hit 1321 a few minutes ago).

The market has to decide now which way it wants to go. Either it follows the April fractal and will be selling off later today/tomorrow again or it breaks SPX 1332 which would be very bullish imo.

So, a convincing break of the 1295-1300 area is bearish and break above 1332 bullish.

I'll post an update on the EUR/USD and bonds later today.

Wednesday, March 2, 2011

S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 2 March 2011

We got the new low around the 1300 area at noon and then bounced again. This bounce so far is too short to qualify as a second wave though so more upside is likely tomorrow. If we can break above 1314 we should rally into the low 1320's imo.

Important support below is the 1295-1300 area. Should the SPX breach this level the next objectives are 1280ish and 1260ish.

Interesting Chart of the Day today:

Source: BusinessInsider

I guess we need QE3 soon.... : )

S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update 1 ~ 2 March 2011

We've seen the expected bounce this morning. To qualify as a second wave it was a bit short though, so very likely wave (i) down is still underway and the rally this morning was only wave iv of (i).

So, a new low in the SPX 1300 area (overnight ES low at 1296 might be a good target) should follow and then the bigger bounce into the 1320ish area should occur later this week.

Tuesday, March 1, 2011

S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 1 March 2011

Very strong comeback by the bears today - the SPX declines more than 20 handles.

As said intraday I thought we'd see a new high today. Pre-market it looked good when the ES was trading above 1336, twelve hours later though the ES is almost 40 handles lower at 1297.5.

If you have a look at April 2010 you can see some similarities to today. The first big down day was almost fully retraced (~75% in April 10 and Feb 11). Another big down day followed which was again almost fully retraced. The third down day breached all the support and I think you remember what followed in May.

If this pattern continues we should see an upday tomorrow.

Should we decline further though and close below 1290 I think the top is in and a bigger correction towards 1200ish should be underway.

S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update 1 ~ 1 March 2011

The SPX closed above 1325 yesterday thus I thought we'd see new highs today. Pre-market it actually looked like that (the high was ES 1336.5 = SPX 1338), bears stepped in around the European open though and the market has been selling off since then.

My preferred target for this sell off is the 1313 area. There we got the 50 % retracement and wave a equals c. If we decline even further the next stop is the open gap at 1307.