Thursday, June 3, 2010

S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count 3 June 2010

The SPX made new highs today at 1106 (the ES did not btw) but still failed to rally above the daily MA 200.

To the downside 1070 must hold and to the upside if 1105ish gets breached we should rally to 1120 or even to 1140.


Tomorrow morning at 8:30 am the Non-Farm Employment Change and the Unemployment Rate are released, so let's see how the market reacts on those numbers.


I'll post some charts tomorrow morning.

S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update I 3 June 2010

The SPX hit a new high at 1105.67 today. About 30 minutes ago we broke out of an intraday triangle and have been selling off since then. Possibly an ABC from the top:



For the bullish case 1070 must hold, a drop below that level and wave [iii] should be underway.

Wednesday, June 2, 2010

S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count 2 June 2010

According to the fractal I posted earlier I expected a rally... but not that huge a rally! Up 2,6 % and back at 1100. What a day!


Yesterday, I resolved to post the following chart if the SPX should rally to 1090. Well, that's what it did so here is the chart:



I've already posted this fractal, I think it was early April, but I've lost track of it until yesterday, when I looked at it again and saw that the correlation between mid 2007 and today is still impressive. If this played out the target would be 1240-50 at the end of July.


Quite pointless actually to post an EW count since we're right below 1103. Break above that level and the short term bearish count (wave i finished at 1070 (exp. leading diagonal) and wave ii ended EOD today (quite common for a second wave to retrace almost everything of an LD)) is toast and either wave [ii] is still ongoing or the correction ended at 1040 and we'll see new highs in summer.

Tomorrow the Unemployment Claims are released, so we may already know in pre-market which count is underway. ; )

ES ~ Intraday Update III 2 June 2010

S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update II 2 June 2010

Fractals seem to work better than EW counts at the moment : )

The SPX is approaching 1090, let's see if that level provides some resistance.


A possible H&S forming: