S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update 1 ~ 12 April 2011

The SPX declined below 1330 which indicated that a move lower towards 1300ish is very likely.

My preferred target area for wave 2 is around the 1300 level. There the market should find support and then start wave 3 up to 1400+.

Should we get a convincing break of this level though then I think wave (2) is still underway and maybe after all we still get to my 1220 target.

EUR/USD ~ Update ~ 8 April 2011

(See last EUR/USD update here)

We got the expected correction at the 1.43ish level. It was very weak though and couldn't even break the first support at 1.40ish.

The EUR/USD is now trading at 1.44 and as long as 1.40ish holds I think we'll see 1.50ish:

S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 6 April 2011

The range this month so far has been only eight handles. Once we break out of this tight range we should see a big move.

If it breaks to the downside a gapfill at 1319ish is likely.

Should we move higher the next target is the yearly high at 1344. I don't think it will hold though so a move to around 1360ish to complete wave 1 could very well happen.


So, let's see which way it breaks.

S&P 500 ~ Pre-Market Warm-Up ~ 5 April 2011

The market didn't really go anywhere yesterday. We're still inside the rising wedge and above 1325 so we may still see one more wave up.

If we get a convincing break of 1325ish I think wave 2 is underway. First short-term target should be the gap at 1319. Next targets are 1305-09 and 1300ish.

S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Outlook on April 2011

Review of March

I've just seen that I didn't write a March outlook. If you've read my daily updates though I think you know that I was looking for a correction into the 1220-25 area.

The market only declined to 1249 though from where we've seen a huge bounce indicating that we've probably already seen the wave (2) low.


Outlook on April

A second wave usually retraces at least 50 % of the first wave. The current wave (2) has only retraced 28.5 % or 95 points so far so have we seen only a part of the correction?

If you have a look at the chart below you can see that in 2009 wave (2) of [A] was also very short in time and in price (about month and 87 handles/30 %). These parameters are very similar to today thus I think wave (2) bottomed at 1249 and wave (3) is underway:

Almost all waves since the bottom in early 2009 have the same characteristics: The first wave is usually the longest and most powerful wave. Thus, Intermediate wave (3) is likely to be shorter than wave (1) so my target area is around 1500. A fourth and a fifth wave should then complete the motive wave, which started in July 2010, around 1600 early next year.

Once the yearly highs are broken my next target is the rising channel line (~1400).

It looks like we need one more rally to complete wave 1. After that a wave 2 should follow down into the 1300 area. A break below 1325 should confirm that wave 2 is underway.

Short-term support is at 1325-29 and then around 1300. Resistance is at 1344.



To sum up, unless we get a convincing break of 1300ish I think that we'll see more upside in April.

There are obviously other counts around in the blogosphere. I'd like to keep it simple though and focus only on the count which I think is the most probable. In my opinion it helps you more if there is only one count instead of like one primary count and three alternatives (i.e. something for everybody).

But let me know which way you prefer it. ; )


If you have any questions, suggestions etc. email me at admin at wavaholic dot com.


Have a very nice week!