Not broken so far.
Thursday, May 5, 2011
S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update 1 ~ 5 May 2011
The SPX hit the support area at 1330-40 again this morning and we've seen a rally to 1348 since then.
As you can see in the chart the downtrendline is about to break to the upside thus it's possible that wave [ii] is completed and wave [iii] is underway now:
A break above 1370ish confirms that wave [iii] to 1410-20 is underway.
I'll have more on the EUR/USD, Gold and Silver later.
As you can see in the chart the downtrendline is about to break to the upside thus it's possible that wave [ii] is completed and wave [iii] is underway now:
A break above 1370ish confirms that wave [iii] to 1410-20 is underway.
I'll have more on the EUR/USD, Gold and Silver later.
Wednesday, May 4, 2011
S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update 1 ~ 4 May 2011
I'm back a bit earlier than I thought so from today on there will be daily updates again. ; )
Just had a look at what has happened this week so far and it appears as wave [i] peaked at 1371 on Monday and we're currently in wave [ii]. I'm not sure whether it's already completed at 1342 or if it's only wave (a) of [ii], i.e. that wave (c) is going to test the support area between 1330 and 1340 once again next week (similar to what happened mid April (1302 and 1294)).
Whichever short term count is correct in my opinion the support area around 1330-1340 should hold to see more upside (to 1400+) later this month. If we break below this area I might be wrong and something else is underway. A convincing break above 1371 confirms that wave [iii] to ~1410 is underway.
Just had a look at what has happened this week so far and it appears as wave [i] peaked at 1371 on Monday and we're currently in wave [ii]. I'm not sure whether it's already completed at 1342 or if it's only wave (a) of [ii], i.e. that wave (c) is going to test the support area between 1330 and 1340 once again next week (similar to what happened mid April (1302 and 1294)).
Whichever short term count is correct in my opinion the support area around 1330-1340 should hold to see more upside (to 1400+) later this month. If we break below this area I might be wrong and something else is underway. A convincing break above 1371 confirms that wave [iii] to ~1410 is underway.
Sunday, May 1, 2011
S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Outlook on May 2011
Last week in the army for me thus I'll be able to post every day again from May 6th on. ; )
I posted a EUR/USD, DXY, Gold and Silver update a few hours ago: http://www.wavaholic.com/2011/05/eurusd-dxy-gold-silver-update-1-may.html
Review of April
April unfolded almost as expected:
Wave 1 peaked at 1339 early April and wave 2 unfolded in a simple zigzag and ended at 1295 mid month. Since then we've seen a huge rally and the SPX finished the month at 1364 (up about 3 %).
Outlook on May
I generally expect more of the same as in late April and wouldn't be surprised to see a 14xx at the end of May.
Last year the SPX topped in mid January, corrected into early February, formed an inverse H&S and then rallied for two and a half months till April.
This year the SPX topped in mid February, corrected into mid March, formed an inverse H&S and has rallied since then. If this rally also lasts two and half months we should see some sort of a top (wave (3)?) in June.
Last year the SPX topped when QE1 ended (April 2010). QE2 ends in June 2011 so I think you can see the similarities here.
As posted a few times already my target for wave 3 is around 1430ish which should be followed by a sideways wave 4 and a fifth wave up to around 1470ish to complete wave (3).
Short term I'm not sure whether this is still a part of wave [i] of 3 or already [iii] of 3. Whichever count is underway though the 1330 area should hold. If we get a convincing break of this level then I'm probably wrong.
To sum up, as long as 1330ish holds I expect to see new rally highs in May most likely even a rally to above 1400.
I wish you a very successful month! ; )
I posted a EUR/USD, DXY, Gold and Silver update a few hours ago: http://www.wavaholic.com/2011/05/eurusd-dxy-gold-silver-update-1-may.html
Review of April
April unfolded almost as expected:
 |
| "It looks like we need one more rally to complete wave 1. After that a wave 2 should follow down into the 1300 area. " |
Wave 1 peaked at 1339 early April and wave 2 unfolded in a simple zigzag and ended at 1295 mid month. Since then we've seen a huge rally and the SPX finished the month at 1364 (up about 3 %).
Outlook on May
I generally expect more of the same as in late April and wouldn't be surprised to see a 14xx at the end of May.
Last year the SPX topped in mid January, corrected into early February, formed an inverse H&S and then rallied for two and a half months till April.
This year the SPX topped in mid February, corrected into mid March, formed an inverse H&S and has rallied since then. If this rally also lasts two and half months we should see some sort of a top (wave (3)?) in June.
Last year the SPX topped when QE1 ended (April 2010). QE2 ends in June 2011 so I think you can see the similarities here.
As posted a few times already my target for wave 3 is around 1430ish which should be followed by a sideways wave 4 and a fifth wave up to around 1470ish to complete wave (3).
Short term I'm not sure whether this is still a part of wave [i] of 3 or already [iii] of 3. Whichever count is underway though the 1330 area should hold. If we get a convincing break of this level then I'm probably wrong.
To sum up, as long as 1330ish holds I expect to see new rally highs in May most likely even a rally to above 1400.
I wish you a very successful month! ; )
EUR/USD, DXY, Gold & Silver ~ Update ~ 1 May 2011
EUR/USD
(read my last EUR/USD update here)
The 1.45ish support held and we've seen another big rally in the EUR/USD this week. We're now only about 1 cent below my target area of 1.50-51ish which I've been mentioning for a few weeks now after 1.43ish was broken:
Short term support is at 1.45ish. If we hit the 1.50-51 area we could see a bigger correction into the low 1.4x area (wait for some kind of reversal first though! or at least use stops). Should we get a convincing break above 1.51ish a rally to 1.60ish is very likely imo.
US Dollar Index
The last time I posted a DXY chart was in late February when the index was still in the multi-year triangle. Just a few days later the USD broke the support line and since then has sold off and is approaching its all time low:
The next support area is the 71ish area, if we break that we may go way lower (66/67 or even lower). Should we get a bounce from the 71ish level then I think we'll retest the broken trendline in the high 7x's before we'll go lower again.
Gold
Gold hit another new all time high this week and as long as the uptrendline isn't breached the rally should continue:
Silver
As written last week if there ever is a correction in silver then it may happen around the all time high at 50$. On Monday silver almost hit 50$ and then sold off and fell below 45$ by Tuesday, a level not seen since April 20th! Since then it has recovered nicely and it looks like we could see a new all time high already next week.
(read my last EUR/USD update here)
The 1.45ish support held and we've seen another big rally in the EUR/USD this week. We're now only about 1 cent below my target area of 1.50-51ish which I've been mentioning for a few weeks now after 1.43ish was broken:
Short term support is at 1.45ish. If we hit the 1.50-51 area we could see a bigger correction into the low 1.4x area (wait for some kind of reversal first though! or at least use stops). Should we get a convincing break above 1.51ish a rally to 1.60ish is very likely imo.
US Dollar Index
The last time I posted a DXY chart was in late February when the index was still in the multi-year triangle. Just a few days later the USD broke the support line and since then has sold off and is approaching its all time low:
The next support area is the 71ish area, if we break that we may go way lower (66/67 or even lower). Should we get a bounce from the 71ish level then I think we'll retest the broken trendline in the high 7x's before we'll go lower again.
Gold
Gold hit another new all time high this week and as long as the uptrendline isn't breached the rally should continue:
Silver
As written last week if there ever is a correction in silver then it may happen around the all time high at 50$. On Monday silver almost hit 50$ and then sold off and fell below 45$ by Tuesday, a level not seen since April 20th! Since then it has recovered nicely and it looks like we could see a new all time high already next week.
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