S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update 1 ~ 23 November 2011

After closing around 1190 again yesterday the SPX opened lower today and is now trading below 1170. Thus, I think the bearish count is now much more likely:

Based on the count and fibonacci wave [iii] might end soon. It looks like we're already in subwave (v) and the sub 1160ish area seems to be a good place for a bottom. At 1153 wave [iii] is 1.62*wave [i], at 1155 is an open gap and at 1158 is the 62 % retracement level.

S&P 500 ~ EOD Update ~ 21 November 2011

The SPX hit my target of 1190 today:

The market even dipped below it intraday but closed above it. As said many times already I think the 1190ish level is very crucial.

If we get a convincing break and close below this level (yesterday's low - 1190ish) I think wave (C) to below 1070 has started. As long as this level holds though the downtrend since late October could only be an abc correction (as shown in the chart above). So, the next days will be very interesting. ; )

S&P 500 ~ EOD Update ~ 17 November 2011

The SPX broke the lower triangle support line at the open and then sold off around 27 handles to 1210 : )

As already mentioned a few times 1190ish is my critical medium-term support level. If we break below it wave (C) is most likely underway. As long as it holds though we could still see an end of year rally. So, the next few days will be very crucial.

S&P 500 ~ EOD Update ~ 16 November 2011

Still no decision:

We're still inside the triangle. A break to the downside should lead to the 1190ish area (there is some strong support between 1220 and 1230 though) and a break to the upside to the 1310ish area.

ES ~ Update ~ 16 November 2011