S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update ~ 4 April 2012

The SPX is approaching the strong support at 1390ish. Let's see if it holds:

Maybe you've noticed it too: The past three weeks the pattern has always been the same:

- Rally on Monday
- Top late Monday/early Tuesday
- Sell-off Tuesday through Thursday
- Bottom on Thursday/early Friday
- Rally into the weekend

Since tomorrow is Thursday and we're near support we could see a bottom tomorrow and then an Easter rally.

S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 3 April 2012

The waves since mid March are very difficult to count. It could either be an ending diagonal to complete blue wave 3 or a sideways correction before the SPX takes off again.

If it's an ending diagonal 1422 should have been the top and a correction to below 1390 should follow next (confirmation = break below 1390).

If I look at the Dow Jones and the Nasdaq the action since mid March looks more like a sideways correction though. So once the orange trendline is convincingly broken we could see another big move higher:

If we get this break above 1425ish the important support level for the medium-term trend moves from 1390ish up to today's low at 1405.

Silver ~ Update ~ 2 April 2012

Silver tried a few more times to break the resistance at 33ish but has failed so far:

A nice inverse H&S is forming in the hourly chart. If we can break the neckline we could see a rally to the next resistance at 34.5ish:

S&P 500 ~ EOD Update ~ 2 April 2012

The SPX hit a new bull market high at 1422 today:

1390 remains the important level. The trend is up as long as the SPX trades above it.

coming soon

Elliott Wave Tutorial

about 95 % completed => finished this Wednesday or Thursday ; )