A closer look at the evil count ; )

My evil count, which should hurt bears and bulls, is the darkgreen one:

https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh3-GBy1lBpLsQiHiU0S_gOHl3xga14WZ1Pzne8Bou-OXxL1RBI0-aLNEFxexk68lWLgz1LC6pa_EMiIpJtlHFmHrmLQl0Bi27WbRs1arzycDSC7799vP72WrD5Kg3QkAu5Zen3bPkReq0/s1600-h/spxlong20072009.jpg

Last Friday, when I was reading the new post on Slope of Hope, I suddenly realized that the pattern from the stock market crash in 1929 corresponds exactly with the current bear market (and its rally).

The bear market rally after the stock market crash in 1929: (Thanks again Tim, that I can use your charts ; ))

The current rally (weekly):

I find this correlation amazing! In 1929 we got a very sharp rally towards the 38% retracement level. After that was reached early December the market turned south again till Christmas before it rallied for another four months to reach the 50% retracement level.

Comparing today's chart with the chart from 1929 I think we are in early December before the first big correction took place. We got a nice and sharp rally and nearly reached the 38% level. Thus I think we should see quite a strong correction over the next four weeks to about 820-850 and therefore trap all the bears that will have opened their short positions after the market plunged through 870. What should follow afterwards is a second rally to the 50% level over the next months to trap all the bulls that will be sreaming: "New Bull Market".

You all know what follows in the end if this patterns continues to correspond:

Top in sight...

It seems as the market is in wave 5 of 5 of ??. Thus a correction or even a new downtrend should start early next week.

Take a look at my long term chart to get a better overview:

http://ew-analysis.blogspot.com/2009/07/some-possibilities.html

The bears are back!

: P

I changed my long term count for the DAX completely: The top in June was Intermediate (A) of Primary [B]. After that, the DAX corrected to 4500 in Intermediate (B). At the beginning of last week, Intermediate (C) started with a final target of 6100 later this or at any time next year. Short term, it seems that the first wave of (C) is completed.

Keep in mind that the DAX hasn't surpassed the high in June yet. Thus the bearish count is technically still valid. But as soon as the DAX makes a new high(i.e. >5177.5), this bullish count should be underway.

I see something you do see and the color of it is green, green, green, green, green, green and green

Yep, the stock market ; ). 7 up days in a row, unbelievable!

Since the long and short term counts haven't changed, I just wanted to show you the following chart ; ):

some possibilities

I'm still sticking by my count that the market is in Intermediate (4) of Primary [1] . If the market makes a new high (>956) I will move the low for Intermediate (3) to the November low ato 740.

But if the coming down waves look corrective or if the market pushs higher to >1100 without any correction I will switch to one of my alternate counts.

What I don't like is EWI's count. I just don't believe that the market will already begin a nasty Primary [3].