still no decision...

The EUR/USD is still trading in a narrow range (like the SPX) and is forming a rising wedge. A break below the support line would very likely confirm the bearish scenario.

Primary Count: At the beginning of [iii] of 1.

Alternative Count: In iii of (iii) of ?; A break above the high at 1.4446 would confirm this scenario. The top for Primary [2]/[B] would be delayed by some weeks.

Will the top occur in September?

I think so! ; )

The entire last week the market was bouncing in a narrow range between 1020 and 1040. This whole action looks like when the top for Intermediate wave (W) was formed. Then, the market spent two weeks between 930 and 950 till it finally broke down.

So, I think we'll see another quite boring week without any big move.

A first indication that we'll be looking at the very first waves of the next Primary wave would be a breach of 1016, the low of wave [iv]. A break below the low of Minor B would very likely confirm it.

Primary count: wave (iii) of [v] of C in progress (Chart)

Alternative count: currently in wave [ii] or at the beginning of [iii] of C; the target in this case would lie at 1120ish.

The big picture: The long term count remains the same as shown in my last weekend update. Primary [B] (alt [2]) should conclude between 1014 and 1120 followed by Primary [C] (alt [3]) to 450-500 somewhen next year.

It's getting exciting

As mentioned in the last EUR/USD post a downwave to about 1.42 should follow. At the moment we are in this very downwave and almost hit 1.42 today. So far, the downwave doesn't look completed, neither for the bullish nor the bearish count, thus I expect at least one more wave down tomorrow.

Primary Count: currently in iii of (i) of [iii] of 1. Target for [iii] at 1.37ish.

Alternative: about to finish wave (ii); (iii) would follow to new highs soon.

...and a beautiful H&S:

Edit:

a short SPX Update:

Primary count: currently in [4] of C of (Y) of [B]/[2]. Thus one last upwave to complete this bear market rally.

Alternative count: in (iv) of [i] of C of (Y) of [B]/[2]. In this case a top in the second half of September at 1120ish would be likely.

SPX Update - 1120 within one month?

I think, that wave [i] finished earlier today. Thus the market should be in wave [ii] to 1015ish at the moment before the next upwave should start.

Other possibilities are shown in the following chart:

irregular flat?

And a second post for today: (Click here if you missed the first one)

Primary Count for EUR/USD: Completed a irregular flat (wave [ii]). Next: wave [iii] to ~1.38, invalid above 1.4446

Alternate: completed wave (i), wave (ii) this week, followed by wave (iii) to new highs.

Last chart (only posted at http://www.cash.ch/forum/viewtopic.php?t=3948&start=0&postdays=0&postorder=asc&highlight=)