S&P 500 ~ Fractal 8 May 2010

I hope you're enjoying your weekend after this entertaining week. ; )

As I noted yesterday we could see something similar to 1987:

The SPX should decline early next week but not below 1065. If that's the case a nice rally should follow.

In EW terms, the crash will be labeled as wave 3 and the decline next week as a truncated fifth wave.

Gonna post more charts later.

S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update 7 May 2010

I can't count that.. I thought we may see some sort of bounce but this tape looks very weak...

In 1987 we almost retested the lows of the crash a few days later. May be we get the same today.

If we go below 1065 I don't know where this will stop...

Edit 12:30 PM EDT: SPX is making some kind of a triangle.

S&P 500 ~ Pre-Market Update 7 May 2010

The day after May 6th 2010...

The ES oscillated between 1115 and 1135 overnight and is now just below 1130, so up a few points after yesterday's close.

This can go either way today imo. Another sell-off down to 1100 or if 1135 gets breached we may see a rally to 1150. This could then be seen as a right shoulder of a big H&S, with the left shoulder in Jan 10 and the head at 1220.

But let's see first what we get today... expecting quite a wild day.

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S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count 6 May 2010

A day I'll never forget...

6% down and up within a few minutes...

I actually expected wave 5 to end at 1140 to complete wave (A) of an ABC correction which should end late May (and not today..), so I exited my shorts waaaayyyy to early...) I hope you guys did better.

My target for this correction was 1064.8. This target is based on the fractal I posted a few days ago:

(take the rally in Oct 09 divide it by the sell off to Nov 09. Take the rally form Feb 10 to 1220 and divide it by the number you got before. Then subtract this number from 1220 to get 1064.8 (hope I made no mistake.. :))

I could be totally wrong here and another crash is just around the corner but since the target for this correction was almost reached today I think we will make new highs soon. Yep, new highs.

I'm posting a long term chart today, I actually planned to do it on the weekend but after today's event I do it now:

Primary [A] ended at 1214 (not 1220). Wave [B] unfolded in a expanded flat with a large, a very large actually, wave (C) and within (C) the crash wave [v] of 5 to complete this correction. (This can be counted differently as a simple Zigzag from 1220. I do like it as I have it now though.)

How far Primary [C] will go we can just guess. Either it will be very short and top around 1300 to complete this bear market rally or rally to new all time highs to complete Cycle wave d of an Expanding Triangle which began in 2000, so about the same we got 40 years ago (this is the preferred count).

Alternative long term count is that this rally topped and we began a new downtrend at 1220. Almost anything is possible at the moment I hope the next days will show whether a new bear began or not.

If a new bear began then the short term count could look like that:

http://elliottmarketwaves.blogspot.com/

He posted this count count just a few minutes before the crash. Congrat Filipe ; )!

Wave (iii) ended at 1066 with the rest of the impulse to come later this month down to 1000. If we make a new low (below 1066) I may discard my bullish option and turn bearish.

But let's see first where this week will end. ; )