S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count 29 November 2010

This morning the markets were sharply lower. The monthly lows held though and the indices rebounded and closed lower only a few handles.

Today's sell off may have been just a retest of the upper channel line:

It's very possible that today's low will be labeled as the wave 4 low:
Wave 2 took about 14 days to unfold. - Today is the fourteenth days since the top. So a nice time relationship between the two corrective waves within this motive wave.

I wrote about two weeks ago how wave 4 should unfold:

"A fourth wave usually retraces 23 to 38 % of wave three and into the territory of subwave four of three. This results in a target range for wave 4 of 1156 to 1196. Wave 2 took about three weeks to unfold, so if we expect a similar duration for wave 4 this puts us to the end of November. Lastly, waves two and four usually alternate. Since wave 2 was a simple zigzag wave 4 should unfold in a flat or a triangle (or a combination thereof)."

So far, this looks pretty good, let's see if the PIIGS and North Korea allows the market to go higher... : )


If today was indeed the low of wave 4 we can try to define some possible price and time objectives for wave 5:

Wave 1 measures 120 points and lasted ~27 days. Wave 3 was about 1.62*wave 1 in price and 2*wave 1 in time. Wave 5 equals usually wave 1. So, this gives us a price target near 1300 and a time target early 2011 for wave 5 (and wave (1)):

As mentioned before I'd like to see a convincing break of SPX 1200 before turning bullish.

S&P 500 ~ Pre-Market Warm-Up 26 November 2010

Futures are down again and the triangle doesn't look that nice anymore. In the ES though there is a very nice triangle forming and if we get a break above 1200 the long expected rally to 1250ish may be underway:

The situation in the SPX has changed a bit. I don't think we're in a [b] of a triangle anymore, I think that either wave 4 bottomed at 1173 and wave 5 is already underway or we'll get a wave [c] down to the mid 1150's or even down to 1130 over the next few days (btw the ES count works for the SPX but it just doesn't look right imo):

To sum up, I'm bullish above 1200ish and bearish below 1173.

S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update 1 ~ 24 November 2010

Big rally today!

It looks like wave (c) of [b] is underway:

Possible target 1204ish ((c) = (a))

S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count 23 November 2010

The SPX declined much more than I expected yesterday. It sold off almost 1.5 % and is near the monthly lows again:

1173 hasn't been breached yet, so, it's still very possible that wave [b] to 1210ish is underway. Should the 1173 level break though then I think we're going to 1160ish or even much lower towards 1130 (H&S target, see chart at the bottom). There's even a fractal which supports lower prices for tomorrow as long as 1183.5 isn't surpassed:

So as you can see, it could go either way tomorrow in my opinion. As long as 1173 holds 1210 is still possible but below it 1160 or even 1130 is likely.

S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update 1 ~ 23 November 2010

SPX down 1.5 % - not what I've expected...

If we don't get a bounce soon we may go lower towards 1160ish into late November (or even much lower to 1130ish; there is a pretty nasty H&S in the hourly chart...)