US Dollar ~ 28 February 2011

The US Dollar hit a new yearly low today so I think it's time to have a look at the bigger picture again:

The $DXY is near the lower support line of a multi-year triangle right now thus as long as we stay above 76ish we could see an intermediate bottom around these levels and a bounce probably even up to the high 80's to the resistance line.

I don't think such a big rally can happen without a correction in the stock market though so we have to watch the SPX closely.

S&P 500 ~ Pre-Market Warm-Up ~ 28 February 2011

The reached the low 1320's on Friday afternoon which was my target for a potential wave [ii] top.

As said though, I'm only bearish if we get a daily close below the 1300ish level, I'd like to revise that level to 1290.
Above 1325 (daily close) we should see new highs - preferred target area is still the 1360ish area.


I'm sure you had a look at the daily chart over the weekend. It's interesting that in log scale the support line has been breached and in arithmetic scale the support line held:

You probably find this chart on bull blogs...

...and this one on bear blogs... : )

As you can see I'm not sure which way the market is going. Futures are up at ES 1325 right now though, so it looks quite bullish at the moment. Additionally, March starts tomorrow and the first day of the month has recently been (very) bullish. But may be bears take the bulls by surprise and break below 1300 again. ; )

Have a nice week!

S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update 1 ~ 25 February 2011

When I looked at the chart this morning I thought we'd seen this pattern before:

Jan 20/21th looks very similar imo:

When I zoomed out I noticed that the fractal is actually much bigger:

(Jan 18th = Feb 18th; Jan 20th = Feb 24th)

As you can see the fractal and the EW count support higher prices. There is a slight differnce though, while the fractal says we should see new highs I think we'll only see a correction up to the low 1320's to complete a second wave (a break above 1325 though would lead to a new high imo).

S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update 2 ~ 24 February 2011

Bulls MIA so far!

Just a short update to give you the important levels:

1320-25
1310
1300
1286-90 (open gap)

ES ~ Intraday Update 1 ~ 24 February 2011

Breakout and backtest?