Once this range breaks (~1120-1220) we should see a big move (up or down). My guess is down but we'll see... ; )
Friday, September 30, 2011
S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update 1 ~ 30 September 2011
After we got a rally from the 1120 support area to the 1190ish resistance level earlier this week the SPX has declined back to the 1140ish support. So, the market continues to bounce between the support and resistance levels:
Once this range breaks (~1120-1220) we should see a big move (up or down). My guess is down but we'll see... ; )
Once this range breaks (~1120-1220) we should see a big move (up or down). My guess is down but we'll see... ; )
Wednesday, September 28, 2011
S&P 500 ~ Update ~ 28 September 2011
At the beginning of this year I expected a huge rally up to 1600ish by the end of this year/early 2012. Until July it looked like we were on track for it but early August the SPX broke below 1260 which was a sign that the rally was most likely over:
During the last two decades the weekly MA 76 was very reliable (as you can see in the chart above). Early August the SPX fell below it and since then each rally was stopped at the MA 76. Thus, as long as the market stays underneath it I'm bearish long-term.
The long-term Elliott wave count, I've been using for almost a year, isn't valid anymore. It's always a bit tricky to post long-term counts since there are endless options to count the markets but nevertheless I'll post the two scenarios which I think are the most probable ones:
Scenario 1: We're not in a new bear market to new lows below 666 but only in a bigger correction of this bull market. Preferred target for this correction is the 930-1010 area (50-62% retracement, 2010 low). After the SPX will have completed wave [X] we should see another big rally to new all-time highs.
Scenario 2: At 1370 the SPX completed a cycle wave b in an ongoing abc correction. During the next months and years the market will decline and eventually hit a new low below 666. A potential target for wave c is at 480 where wave a equals wave c. Coincidentally 480 is the level where the SPX started to take off in 1995. Once cycle wave c is completed all the mess in the world (debt problem etc.) should be solved so that we can start a new big bull market.
So, short- and medium-term these two scenarios are very similar. We shouldn't see a break above 1260ish, if we do though then both scenarios, especially scenario 2, are unlikely. Long-term they are very different though. Which scenario is more likely depends on what the SPX does once we enter the 930-1010ish area.
The bounce from 1120ish continued yesterday. We rallied all the way up to the resistance around 1190ish:
Support and resistance levels haven't changed. Still at 1120, 1140, 1190, 1220, 1230.
During the last two decades the weekly MA 76 was very reliable (as you can see in the chart above). Early August the SPX fell below it and since then each rally was stopped at the MA 76. Thus, as long as the market stays underneath it I'm bearish long-term.
The long-term Elliott wave count, I've been using for almost a year, isn't valid anymore. It's always a bit tricky to post long-term counts since there are endless options to count the markets but nevertheless I'll post the two scenarios which I think are the most probable ones:
Scenario 1: We're not in a new bear market to new lows below 666 but only in a bigger correction of this bull market. Preferred target for this correction is the 930-1010 area (50-62% retracement, 2010 low). After the SPX will have completed wave [X] we should see another big rally to new all-time highs.
Scenario 2: At 1370 the SPX completed a cycle wave b in an ongoing abc correction. During the next months and years the market will decline and eventually hit a new low below 666. A potential target for wave c is at 480 where wave a equals wave c. Coincidentally 480 is the level where the SPX started to take off in 1995. Once cycle wave c is completed all the mess in the world (debt problem etc.) should be solved so that we can start a new big bull market.
So, short- and medium-term these two scenarios are very similar. We shouldn't see a break above 1260ish, if we do though then both scenarios, especially scenario 2, are unlikely. Long-term they are very different though. Which scenario is more likely depends on what the SPX does once we enter the 930-1010ish area.
The bounce from 1120ish continued yesterday. We rallied all the way up to the resistance around 1190ish:
Support and resistance levels haven't changed. Still at 1120, 1140, 1190, 1220, 1230.
Silver ~ Update ~ 28 September 2011
From the top at 50 $ an ounce silver has lost almost 50 %. So far it looks like a perfect ABC thus wave [4] may have been completed at 26$ and wave [5] is underway now. It's too early to tell though, I'd like to see a break of the 33ish area first. If we break and hold this level we should be in wave [5] back up to the all-time highs:
As mentioned earlier this week we should see a bounce from 26 $ probably up to the 33 $ resistance level. And that actually happened - after a 13 $ drop within 48 hours we got a 28 % rally within 30 hours!
Resistance levels still are around the 33 $ level and then at 39 $. Support levels are at 26 and around 20-21 $.
On Monday we got one hell of a reversal:
I think that's the biggest doji I've ever seen in my life. Dojis usually form at market turning points thus we may have seen a short-term or even medium-term low on Monday.
To sum up, despite the huge sell-off silver looks still bullish long-term (we could drop a bit further to 20ish though). Short- and medium-term silver is bullish again once we break the resistance at 33ish (and hold it afterwards).
As mentioned earlier this week we should see a bounce from 26 $ probably up to the 33 $ resistance level. And that actually happened - after a 13 $ drop within 48 hours we got a 28 % rally within 30 hours!
Resistance levels still are around the 33 $ level and then at 39 $. Support levels are at 26 and around 20-21 $.
On Monday we got one hell of a reversal:
I think that's the biggest doji I've ever seen in my life. Dojis usually form at market turning points thus we may have seen a short-term or even medium-term low on Monday.
To sum up, despite the huge sell-off silver looks still bullish long-term (we could drop a bit further to 20ish though). Short- and medium-term silver is bullish again once we break the resistance at 33ish (and hold it afterwards).
Tuesday, September 27, 2011
Gold ~ Update ~ 27 September 2011
I haven't posted long-term gold charts for almost ten months. Back on January 1st I wrote that we could see a small correction in gold but that we should be higher at the end of 2011 and that I didn't see a gold bubble yet.
So far this has worked out pretty well, we got the rally and also a correction but we're higher than at the beginning of this year.
After the most recent drop in gold almost everywhere one could read that the gold bubble burst (for like the 3510th time I guess). Just have a look at the long-term chart above...
That's one of the most bullish charts I've ever seen and there's just no reason to short it neither technically (the uptrend line is still holding) nor fundamentally (the FED and the ECB still want to solve the debt problem by creating more debt...).
So, long-term I still expect much higher prices (unless of course the FED/ECB etc. decide to solve the debt crisis by saving money and not by spending more... (not gonna happen though imo)). I don't have any specific price target though... just go with the trend and let's see how high it goes ; )
After gold broke out of the triangle at around 1840$ it declined about 300$ and bottomed right at the orange uptrendline and as long as it holds the medium-term trend for gold is up.
Short-term we might have seen a bottom on Monday (maybe even medium-term). We got a huge hammer which is usually a sign of a trend change:
To sum up, as long as the FED wants to solve the debt problem by creating more debt gold should go much higher (long-term). Medium-term the uptrend is still intact and short-term we may have seen a bottom on Monday.
I prepared two other posts (spx & silver). I'll post them a bit later though.
So far this has worked out pretty well, we got the rally and also a correction but we're higher than at the beginning of this year.
After the most recent drop in gold almost everywhere one could read that the gold bubble burst (for like the 3510th time I guess). Just have a look at the long-term chart above...
That's one of the most bullish charts I've ever seen and there's just no reason to short it neither technically (the uptrend line is still holding) nor fundamentally (the FED and the ECB still want to solve the debt problem by creating more debt...).
So, long-term I still expect much higher prices (unless of course the FED/ECB etc. decide to solve the debt crisis by saving money and not by spending more... (not gonna happen though imo)). I don't have any specific price target though... just go with the trend and let's see how high it goes ; )
After gold broke out of the triangle at around 1840$ it declined about 300$ and bottomed right at the orange uptrendline and as long as it holds the medium-term trend for gold is up.
Short-term we might have seen a bottom on Monday (maybe even medium-term). We got a huge hammer which is usually a sign of a trend change:
To sum up, as long as the FED wants to solve the debt problem by creating more debt gold should go much higher (long-term). Medium-term the uptrend is still intact and short-term we may have seen a bottom on Monday.
I prepared two other posts (spx & silver). I'll post them a bit later though.
Monday, September 26, 2011
S&P 500 ~ EOD Update ~ 26 September 2011
The bounce from the support at 1120ish continued today and we almost closed the open gap at 1167.
Resistances are at 1167 and 1190ish, supports at 1140ish and 1120ish.
I'm going to post an updated EW count tomorrow and some medium and long-term charts on the SPX, gold and silver. So you might wanna check these out tomorrow. ; )
Have a nice evening!
Resistances are at 1167 and 1190ish, supports at 1140ish and 1120ish.
I'm going to post an updated EW count tomorrow and some medium and long-term charts on the SPX, gold and silver. So you might wanna check these out tomorrow. ; )
Have a nice evening!
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