Tuesday, September 8, 2009

New low for the USD

SPX: In my weekend update I said: "Anything below 992 should confirm a wave [iii] down, whereas a break of 1039 would be the trigger for [iii] up." So, we are still between these two figures and waiting for a break. The new low in the USD though could be the trigger for the SPX to make a new high.

Primary Counts: [iii] of 1 down or [iii] of C of (Y) up
Alternative Count: none

EUR/USD: While the stock market showed indecision and neither confirmed the bullish nor the bearish count, the Dollar made a new low (and the EUR/USD a new high). This invalidated the bearish count for the latter. At the moment I see two possible counts how this fifth wave could finish. It is either forming a bearish wedge or probably going to 1.50 before it turns.

Regardless of which count will be the right one, the ultimate result will be the same: After topping out the EUR/USD will very likely start a long decline which should carry it way below 1.2.

Primary Count: at the end of [iii] of 5 of C
Alternative Count: in the middle of [iii] of 5 of C