Monday, October 5, 2009

The bears need a down day tomorrow...

SPX: Depending on how you label the down waves since the top, wave [iv] has already penetrated the wave [i] low.

However, if you label it like that, the low of [i] is at 1046. So, as long as the SPX doesn't rally above 1046 the downtrend remains intact. Above that level, we must consider to be in wave [v] of a rare Expanding Ending Diagonal possibly hitting 1120 within a week or so.

Primary Count: at the beginning of [v] of 1, target 1000ish (invalid above 1046)
Alternative Count: in [v] of C of (Y) of [B], possible target 1120 (50% retracement) (primary count above 1046, confirmation above 1070)

DAX: So far, the DAX formed a [i]-[ii]-[iii] and [iv] in progress. Wave [iv] has already retraced 38% of wave [iii], so this might be everything we get.

Primary Count: at the end of [iv] of 1 of (1) of Primary [C] (invalid above 5618 before making a new low)