Sunday, November 15, 2009

Elliott Wave Update Week 46 2009 ~ Spot on! NOT

SPX: After a very good last week, this week wasn't that good. Already on Monday the market opened above the important resistance level around 1075 suggesting that we might see a new high in the coming days.

Two days later the SPX hit 1105.37 making a new high in 2009 and invalidating the bearish count I posted last weekend.

As much as I would like to show you a bullish long term count, I just can't find one. So, there are few bearish options left of which I like the Expanding Ending Diagonal in the C wave position the most. I don't really like it but the other ones are even more crap ; )

Concentrating on the long term picture I spotted a nice fractal: Intermediate (2) of Primary [A]/[1] looks very similar to the current rally since March. It doesn't match perfectly but especially the last four months are very similar.

To sum up, I'm waiting now for a lower low, i. e. an SPX below 1030 to go short. That would confirm the Ending Diagonal Scenario and also match the Intermediate wave (2) fractal.

Have a good week.