Wednesday, May 12, 2010

Elliott Wave Count 12 May 2010

No sell-off into the close today, the trendline held all day:

From last Thursday's low I can count now five waves up nearly completed:

The bearish scenario isn't off the stove though. One can count three waves up to today's high but it's easier to count five waves imo.

Interestingly the second subwave of Minor 1 down (labeled only the bullish count in the chart (red (B))) retraced almost 80 % of the previous wave, 79 % to be exact. The Dow is approaching the 80 % retracement level around 10970 so I think it's definitely a level worth looking at.

The next downwave should show us whether the bullish or the bearish count is underway. If we get a correction down to 10600 or only to 10700 and then resume the rally and make a new high I'll turn bullish again. But should we fall below 10600 and even below the support area around 10200/300 a big crash may be just around the corner.

The next days are going to be very interesting for sure!