Friday, February 11, 2011

30-Year US Bonds ~ 11 February 2011

I had a closer look at the US Bonds this morning and in my opinion this is one of the nicest long term charts I've ever seen:

We're near the lower support line again so odds favor a bounce here. If you have a look at the shorter term chart below you can see that we got five waves down from the August 2010 top, so, also from an elliott wave perspective at least a short term rally is likely:

I don't expect a big rally though but rather only a retracement of the move from 136ish down to 116ish. After that, another five wave move down should follow and possibly even break the multi-decade support line. But as I said, it's been support for more than twenty years and I'm sure it'll be heavily defended!