Tuesday, March 27, 2012

S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 27 March 2012

Two weeks ago I mentioned that the 1440-50 area is a likely target for wave [v]. Pre-market the SPX is already trading at 1420 so we're already less than 2 % away:

As you can see in the chart the SPX should be in wave (iii) of [v]. If we expect the third wave to be the longest then the 1440-50 area is actually too conservative a target. 1500ish as a target is actually more likely.

Let's compare the current uptrend to late 2010/early 2011 once again: In 2010/2011 wave 1 measured about 120 handles (1010-1130), wave 3 about 190 handles (1040-1230), and wave 5 about 170 handles (1170-1340). So not only wave 3 extended but also wave 5. If we take this into account and apply it to today then 1500ish looks actually very reasonable as a target for wave [v].

If the SPX declines below 1390ish wave [v] is over and wave 4 underway.