Tuesday, September 11, 2012

Dow Jones ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 11 September 2012

You've probably noticed that the action during June and July of this year is almost impossible to count as part of a motive wave and looks much more as some kind of a corrective wave. However, the SPX already breached the May highs which reduces the probability of a corrective wave.

Thus, I tried to count it as a leading diagonal (>> SPX >> Medium-term). It's also possible to count it as a series of 1-2's as other bloggers did. Yesterday though, I think I found a much better solution:

Wave (B)/(2) ended in late July and not in early June. Thus, June and July were indeed corrective and part of wave (B)/(2). Wave (C)/(3) started in late July. The subwaves 1 and 2 of (C)/(3) are most likely finished and subwave 3 should be underway now.

As we still haven't breached the May highs in the Dow, I'd wait for a break first. If we get a break, wave 3 to 14000+ should be underway and we shouldn't fall below 13150ish again.