Friday, March 30, 2012

S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update ~ 30 March 2012

The SPX gapped up into the resistance at 1409 and then immediately reversed and closed the gap:

Thursday, March 29, 2012

S&P 500 ~ EOD Update ~ 29 March 2012

There we go! The break of 1399 almost resulted in a gap close!

S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update ~ 29 March 2012

The SPX broke the 1397ish level shortly after the open and then declined further. I actually thought we could hit the support at 1390 but the market decided to form a triple bottom at 1392 and then to rally into the close once again.

The SPX is now bumping against the resistance at 1397-99. If breached we could even see a gap close.

S&P 500 ~ Support & Resistance ~ 29 March 2012

The SPX lost about 10 handles overnight and will open around yesterday's low. If we break this support area we could see a decline to 1387-90 today. If we hold it though then we might see a gap close. Let's see how the market reacts after the open.

Wednesday, March 28, 2012

S&P 500 ~ EOD Update ~ 28 March 2012

And a nice rally from the support area at 1397-1400 into the close:

S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update 1 ~ 28 March 2012

The SPX tried to form a bottom around the 1407ish area but eventually failed to do so and quickly sold off to the next support area at 1397-1400:

Tuesday, March 27, 2012

EUR/USD ~ Update ~ 27 March 2012

S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 27 March 2012

Two weeks ago I mentioned that the 1440-50 area is a likely target for wave [v]. Pre-market the SPX is already trading at 1420 so we're already less than 2 % away:

As you can see in the chart the SPX should be in wave (iii) of [v]. If we expect the third wave to be the longest then the 1440-50 area is actually too conservative a target. 1500ish as a target is actually more likely.

Let's compare the current uptrend to late 2010/early 2011 once again: In 2010/2011 wave 1 measured about 120 handles (1010-1130), wave 3 about 190 handles (1040-1230), and wave 5 about 170 handles (1170-1340). So not only wave 3 extended but also wave 5. If we take this into account and apply it to today then 1500ish looks actually very reasonable as a target for wave [v].

If the SPX declines below 1390ish wave [v] is over and wave 4 underway.

S&P 500 ~ Support & Resistance ~ 27 March 2012

Monday, March 26, 2012

S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update 1 ~ 26 March 2012

The SPX opened above the resistance at 1407-08. Around 10 am the SPX tested this area and then moved higher.

Support is at 1407-08 and at 1397/99. Resistance at 1414.

Silver ~ Update ~ 26 March 2012

S&P 500 ~ Support & Resistance Levels ~ 26 March 2012

Gold ~ Update ~ 26 March 2012

The resistance at 1670-80 is still holding so the trend is still down:

Gold has corrected 62 % of the previous rally so far.

The current downtrend can be labeled as wave ii. If so, then we should see a third wave up next. Before turning bullish again I'd like to see a break of 1720ish first though.

Wednesday, March 21, 2012

EUR/CHF ~ Update ~ 21 March 2012

As written in my update of early September 2011 I expected the EUR/CHF to trade in a narrow range, similar to what happened in 2009. So far so good:

Unless the SNB decides to take some action (e.g. increase the minimum rate) we have to expect this sideways trend to continue. So I think the easiest trade still is to go long at 1.20ish and short at 1.24-25.

S&P 500 ~ Support & Resistance levels ~ 21 March 2012

Monday, March 19, 2012

S&P 500 ~ EOD Update ~ 19 March 2012

The rally from 1340 continued today:

We're no up about 75 handles within two weeks and already less than two percent below my target area for this rally. Once this rally is completed we should see a retest of the 1370-80 area (wave 4).

Wednesday, March 14, 2012

Gold ~ Update ~ 14 March 2012

Gold rallied from the support at 1670-80 to the resistance at 1710-20 by Monday. Since then gold has been declining and broke the support at 1670-80 today:

Next support is at 1600 and then the very strong support area at 1550ish. Resistances are at 1670-80 and 1710-20.

Silver ~ Update ~ 14 March 2012

From the support at 33ish we got a nice rally to the resistance around 34.5ish by Friday. Since then silver has been selling off again and also broke the support at 33ish earlier today:

Next supports are at 30ish and 26. Resistances are at 33 and 34.5.

Tuesday, March 13, 2012

S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 13 March 2012

If wave [v] equals [i] the target for this rally is 1448. 1440 was the bear market rally high in 2008 so 1440-48 is my preferred target area for wave [v].

The SPX shouldn't decline below 1370 or else wave [v] is most likely over.

S&P 500 ~ EOD Update ~ 13 March 2012

The SPX breached the resistance at 1375-78 early in the morning and then just kept moving higher and almost hit 1400 before the close.

I adjusted my count (relabeled waves [iii] and [iv]). It's only a minor change though so the overall picture remains:

Next target is the 1440-50 area. I'll post a chart later which explains how I got this target area.

Monday, March 12, 2012

S&P 500 ~ EOD Update ~ 12 March 2012

The SPX rallied from the support at 1340ish all the way up to the bull market highs by Friday and has been going sideways since then:

Friday, March 9, 2012

S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update 1 ~ 9 March 2012

And also the second gap is closed now. If the SPX stays above 1365 I think we could see a rally to the highs at 1377ish:

Thursday, March 8, 2012

S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update 1 ~ 8 March 2012

As expected the SPX bounced at 1340 and is now already about to close the open gap:

Wednesday, March 7, 2012

Silver ~ Update ~ 7 March 2012

I actually expected a rally to 39ish after 35.5 was breached. We only got to 37.5 which is at least a 2 $ rally so I hope you still made some money.

We got a first bounce at the 34.5 support level and then declined further a few days later and hit the support area at 33ish yesterday:

Gold ~ Update ~ 7 March 2012

The sell-off from the resistance area at 1800ish continued yesterday and gold already hit the support at 1680ish. In my opinion we should hold this level to see the medium-term trend to continue, else a retest of the strong support at 1550ish might be next.

Tuesday, March 6, 2012

S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 6 March 2012

The SPX lost 1.5 % today - which is the worst trading day of the year. I think for the first time this year one of my support lines was broken. 1355ish was already breached at the open what resulted in a quick decline to the next support level at 1340ish:

We could see a bounce around the 1340ish support area. Possible targets are the 1355ish resistance area or even the open gap at 1364.

By the way the 2010 analogy still looks pretty good. ; )

Monday, March 5, 2012

S&P 500 ~ EOD Update ~ 5 March 2012

S&P 500 ~ Big Picture ~ 5 March 2012

It's been two months since my last long-term update.

Back in early January I mentioned that as long as the SPX stays above 1200 you should be bullish. I also mentioned that if the bullish count is underway that we should see a quick rally to new bull market highs during the first quarter. And that's what actually happened.

The bullish count looks very good - ever since 1310 has been broken.

Blue wave 3 should finish anytime soon. Wave 4 should then unfold and isn't allowed to decline to below 1290. Wave 5 should then follow later this year to complete red wave (A) somewhere in the 14xx area.

Very long-term chart:

I still think that eventually we'll see a new low below 666. However, please don't raise a credit and go short once we hit 1600. There are endless options to count such long-term charts, so these counts should solely be for entertainment purposes and not to base your trades on.

To sum up, I think the rally will continue. We could see a few corrections during the next months as you can see it in the first chart. As long as the next correction doesn't decline below 1290 the bullish count is valid.