Tuesday, January 22, 2013

SPX ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 22 January 2013

The SPX is now less than 7 % away from a new all-time high. The Dow is even closer, trading about 4 % below its 2007 highs:

I've been bullish and calling for a bull market top around 1600 since mid 2010. Already in my last update in November I mentioned that the bull market might soon be over since we were approaching 1600. Back then, I thought that the market might fall short of my target. However, two months later, I think that we could still make it.

The count above shows an ending diagonal in the (C) wave position to conclude cycle wave d. My preferred target for this count is 1520ish. After that, cycle wave e to new lows (below 666) should follow. There is a slight variation to the ending diangonal count which allows for a rally to 1600 (triple zigzag (not shown in the chart)).

If we get a convincing break below 1350ish, a new bear market (wave e) is most likely underway. As long as we stay above it, I remain cautiously bullish.