Sunday, June 23, 2013

S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 23 June 2013

Once you have a count there is a tendency to stay with this count and adjust it over time. At the start these adjustments are small but after a while they add up. Eventually, this can lead to counts which just don't look right anymore.

Having had my long-term count for more than three years it has changed from a simple zigzag into a double zigzag and currently into a triple zigzag. Triple zigzags occur only very rarely though, and in fact, I think the count looks very unproportional.

Thus, I deleted my long-term SPX count on Friday and recounted the SPX without any bias. And that's the result:

I actually like it much more than my previous count. It's much simpler and many problems are gone.

You could count wave [C]/[3] slightly differently. It is possible that we are still in wave 3 of (3) or already in wave (4).

The very-long term count remains the same. I still think that eventually we will end up at levels lower than in 2009.