Monday, November 25, 2013

S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 25 November 2013

(link to previous count)

It looks like we have completed a motive wave at 1800ish. However, the SPX has been very bullish over the last few days and weeks and thus, until we get a big reversal the trend continues to be up.

If the SPX declines below 1770, I think that a bigger correction is underway. I expect this correction to be of similar length as the previous ones, i. e. around 80 to 120 points.

(link to previous count)

The higher we go, the more it looks like that we are in a (black) wave [3] and not in a (black) wave [C]. For now, both scenarios are still possible though:

If we are in a wave [3], we should see a correction next year, similar to 2011, followed by a wave [5] to 2000+.

If we are in a wave [C] though, we should decline heavily starting next year as shown in the chart below (down to pink e in the bottom right corner):

As mentioned in previous posts, these long-term counts should be taken with a grain of salt. There are just too many ways of counting long-term waves. So, in my opinion, it doesn't really add any value.

Author: Patrick Eugster