Sunday, May 24, 2009

Another boring week...

After another week without any decision neither for the bulls nor for the bears it's time to update my intermediate count for the SPX.

First of all let's take a look on my last forecast (from the 10th of May). The first downwave was about as long as expected and finished at 880. But the following correction was much stronger and retraced nearly 100%. Wave [iii] should now be underway with the first two subwaves already completed.

This is my favourite count:

You see that I labeled the high at 930 as Intermediate (4). From this follows that the SPX is now in Intermediate (5),  i. e. it'll make slightly lower lows in July or August. 

My target for the subwaves of Intermediate (4) are as follows:

Minor 1 ~820
Minor 2 ~860
Minor 3 ~680
Minor 4 ~740
Minor 5 ~634

After the market will have completed Intermediate (5) (and Primary A or 1)  we should see a nice retrace of the whole Primary A or 1 hopefully at least a 38% retrace.

The following chart shows how I labeled the Minutes and Minuettes. Minute [i] down from the 930 high with a irregular flat in the Minuette (ii) position. An ABC (Zigzag) up to conclude Minute [ii] at 925. Then Minuette (i) of [iii] to 880 and (ii) to 897 (a perfect 38% retrace). (iii) of [iii] should have started in the last trading hour on Friday.

There is a possibility that the high at 930 was Intermediate (A) of Primary [B]. This won't give us such a bearish picture in the nearer future as my scenario above. The market is correcting in Intermediate (B) which should end between 780 and 820. Afterwards Intermediate (C) will unfold and make new highs in the summer.

There is also a little chance that we'll see new highs (>930) in the nearer future. But this bullish count is only valid as long as 875 holds.


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