Sunday, May 10, 2009

The top should be near

After two busy weeks I found time to write a new update : )

The market decided to go up instead of down... : ) My count became void on the 28th of April after 862 was breached.  I sold all my puts at that level with 9 points loss (853=>862).

We are now in the last upleg of the current rally. Wave 5 of (C) should end soon since we are right below some heavy resistances: There is the January high at 944, the SMA 200 at 955 and the 38.2% retracement of wave 3 at 961. I expect the market not to surpass this levels.

After the market will have topped out between 930 and 960 we should see at least a 38% correction of the entire up move. A break of 900 will confirm that this rally is over. 

wave 4 or Primary B?
As long as we don't correct more than 62% of the rally from 667 to 9xx I expect us to be in Primary B and we should see higher highs in the summer.

If we drop below the 62% retracement we'll likely be in Wave 5 of A/1 and should make slightly lower lows in the summer.


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