Sunday, January 31, 2010

Elliott Wave Count January 2010

Back in December I posted this chart:

I wrote that I expect a high in the first week of January 2010. The actual high occured in the second trading minute of the second week of January 2010 - I hope you forgive me : )

From there the Nasdaq plunged almost 8% and closed at 2147 giving back the entire gain of December.

Early February should be quite bullish just like early January since I expect Minor wave 2 to unfold. But then somewhen in mid February Minor wave 3 should start and lead to a big plunge probably down to 1000 in the SPX.

The MA's in the chart are the MA 29 and 76. While the MA 29 often stopped short term rallies/sell offs the MA 76 concluded medium term rallies/sell offs after the MA 29 was broken. In Primary [B]/[2] both Intermediate (X) waves ended at the MA 76 (green arrows).

It looks now as the market broke below this MA and I'd love to see a retest of it from below what may finish Minor wave 2 (like what we saw in June 08 after the break of the MA 76).