Sunday, March 28, 2010

Elliott Wave Count Week 12 2010

As expected last weekend the Dollar started wave 5 up:

It already hit a new high and we can clearly see five waves up from the low in November 2009.

The question now is how far this fifth wave goes. There are two possible scenarios:

-In my preferred scenario the motive wave is nearly finished and should be completed in less than two weeks. Afterwards the Dollar should correct for two months or so to form wave (2).

-The alternative scenario has an extended fifth wave which shoudn't be completed until May.

Since the Dollar tends to do the opposite of what the SPX does we have the following scenarios for the SPX:

-The Dollar tops early April, thus the market bottoms. This aligns with my cycle low/high I have early April. After that the SPX should rally to new highs (1220-30?).

-The Dollar keeps rallying and the market sells off. This is the less likely scenario.

Note: A week and a half till I'm back posting charts every day ; )

Have a nice week!