Sunday, March 14, 2010

Elliott Wave Count Week 10 2010


The headline of this week!

On Friday the SPX made a new high at 1153,41 which invalidated the bearish count I posted last weekend. However, I'm still not convinced that we are in a new bull market.

Originally I thought that this turning date could be a low (low of Intermediate (1)) but now it may turn out to be a high. In the past these dates were almost always either an important high or low so I think it's worth to look at it.

bullish count: This count looks great... as long as you don't look at the subwaves... or does anybody see a way to subdivide wave (3) into an impulse? Suggestions are welcome ; )

Wave (1) = Wave (3). I think that both were extended, thus wave (5) should be a bit shorter, possibly 0,62 times wave (3). In that area is also the 62 % retracement level, so I expect a top between 1220-30.

bearish count: I tried to find a new bearish count because I don't really like the bullish one... It is much easier to count the waves from 666 corrective than motive.

The count looks now as follows:

Since wave C should be a motive wave the short term count can be the same as in the bullish count or it can look as in the count below which also includes the turning date (which would be a high).

This week I recieved many bearish counts, in most of them we are somewhere in an ending diagonal. It's possible but I think it's too early to tell whether an ED is unfolding or not.

That's one example:

As you can see the market will either move up or down next week - yes I needed six charts to came to this conclusion : ))

I'll keep you updated during the week and I hope that the situation will be much clearer next weekend ; )

Have a nice week.