Tuesday, May 24, 2011

EUR/CHF ~ Update ~ 24 May 2011

As well as the USD/CHF the EUR/CHF has been declining for quite a long time now.

Back in 2007 the EUR/CHF was trading above 1.68 and today we're around 1.24, that's a massive drop of more than 25 %.

Thus, I think there is no need to say that long-term the trend is down:

In 2007 and 2008 we got a first decline from 1.68 to around 1.5 where prices stabilized (because the SNB (Swiss National Bank) intervened) for about a year. Late 2009 the EUR/CHF broke out of a big triangle and then sold off again to the current price of way below 1.30.

Medium-term the trend is down(/sideways). It depends how you define medium-term. For about half a year now the EUR/CHF has been oscillating between 1.24 and 1.32 so we could argue that the trend is sideways. If you don't just look at the last six months though then the trend is clearly down.

Resistance is at the blue downtrendline and then at 1.32 and 1.38-39.

Short-term the trend is down as long as we stay in the channel. It appears though that we are about to complete five waves down. So based on Elliott Waves we could see a bounce here (may be to the medium-term downtrendline). But the overall trend is down so be careful ; )