Sunday, May 15, 2011

S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 15 May 2011

You may have heard that blogger had some serious problems. Thus, I couldn't post an update on Friday (and the update from Thursday got deleted).

Anyway. Blogger is now working again and thus it's time to have a look at the SPX again.

The market closed about there where it closed one week ago - around 1340. We've seen huge swings within the week though and rallied as high as 1359 and sold off as low as 1332.

The 1330-1340 support area proves to be very important. We've spent the last two weeks in this area and it feels a bit like in November 2010 or March 2011:

In November 2010 the market test the 1175 area like a zillion times and then rallied about 100 handles within one month.

In March 2011 the market tested the 1305 area a few times but eventually broke it and then plunged 50 handles within a week.

Today it looks like 1330 is the important level and that a huge move, down or up, is likely to follow. If we break lower I think we could see 1260ish again, if we break higher 1410-40 is likely.

As long as 1330ish holds on a daily basis the count looks good i. e. a third wave to 1415ish should follow in May/June. Should 1330ish break though then my count is most likely wrong and we could see 1260ish again.

So let's see if the market decides to break up or down this week ; )