Sunday, June 26, 2011

Weekend Update ~ 26 June 2011

Big update today because I'm on summer vacation until July 7th.

As already mentioned on Friday the SPX has been trading between 1260 and 1296 since early June and I hope it will continue till I'm back... ; )

It looks like a big flat has been underway since mid February. We're currently in wave [iv] or already in wave [v] of wave C so we should bottom out within the next one or two weeks:

If the market declines below 1260ish a sell-off to 1220-30 or even a tad lower to the weekly MA 76 (currently around 1200 and rising 2 handles/week) is very likely. A convincing break of 1296 though is bullish and should lead to a rally to 1313 and then 1345.


As said last week as long as the USD/CHF stays below 0.86 the trend is down. We've already seen a new low on Friday and if we get a convincing break of the 0.83 area we may see 0.80 very soon.


Not much happened since my last update. The EUR/CHF just continues to go lower and as long as the channel holds I continue to expect lower prices.


The EUR/USD has bounced off of the 1.41 area a few times already and it looks a bit like a contracting triangle is forming. If we break lower we could see 1.34-35 later this year and if we break higher a rally to 1.50ish again is likely.


Nothing really changed. Still in an uptrend as long as the uptrend line holds

The European Debt Crisis... : ))

Have a great rest of the weekend/next week and a great Independence Day to the US readers! ; )

See you on July 7th!